Long term impact? Here's my take:
If Russia has to withdraw from ukraine, then the western world will become very bold in shooting its "sanctions" guns over every little thing and I mean, even putting on a pair of shoes that the west doesn't like will result in sanctions.
However, if Russia succeeds in subduing ukraine while toughing out the sanctions then you can practically kiss the western threat of "sanctions" good bye. Even tiny little countries like trinidad won't take the west seriously.
The latter is far FAR FAR more probable than the former since, let's face it...no matter how many sanctions there are, no matter how many times they so called "condemn" Russia's invasion, no matter how many Russian banks they disconnect from swift, no matter how many times they create western media circus against Russia, Russia has the 3 things that the world, especially europe, just cannot live without:
1. oil
2. gas
3. wheat
Even today, every single Russian bank that deals with gas and petroleum transactions has NOT been blocked from swift. europe knows that if they block those banks, Russia can simply turn around and sell to China the oil, gas and wheat that europe wanted to purchase. End of the day, Russia looses nothing while inflation in europe and america would go through the roof with long (and cold) lines of cars at gas stations. Notice that germany is still getting gas from Norstream 1 and Turkey still continues to purchase oil from Russia in spite of having supported the sanctions and all the western hoopla about condemning Russia's invasion. Russia is simply waiting the west out while also beating the living snot out of ukraine. Give it a month, once ukraine is in ruins with Russian oil, gas and wheat continuing to ship unabated, biden would be far too embarrassed to even look at Putin in the eyes while Putin would become virtually unstoppable with a smirk on his face.
if anyone disagrees then please present your arguments and evidence.
