Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

I'm trying to think how a massive European rearmament will actually save Europe from its declining economic irrelevance.
Especially with the sanctions cutting off Russia. It isn't going to help.
Yes, a stronger European military will slowly push it towards become more independent from the US, and less aligned but it won't help the former.

As for the BRI. While the intended end point is Asia to Western Europe, there's a lot of space in between. It's hard to read those tea leaves, but the one scenario people tend to assume will continue is the Western countries become richer and more powerful while the rest of MENA/Africa remain unstable and poor. This is the only scenario where the BRI will falter.

lube said:

It's hard to read those tea leaves, but the one scenario people tend to assume will continue is the Western countries become richer and more powerful while the rest of MENA/Africa remain unstable and poor. This is the only scenario where the BRI will falter.

Click to expand...

Unlikely now, given the complete capitulation of the EU to the US. Trouble may be brewing ever westward as neo-nazi and anti-fascist sentiments rise.
What may happen is a reversion to the historical norm, with a prosperous East Asia & West Asia and a barbaric, dirt-poor Europe mired in non-stop internecine conflicts.

Hope more EU countries re-arm.

Am I reading the news correctly that the western block central banks are freezing the accounts and asset pool used by Russia’s central bank for collateral and fx clearing?

If that’s the case, it essentially means importers and exporters in America and Western Europe won’t be able to buy or sell anything to Russia since the central bank collateral pools are used by each other to settle and net payments.

Resulting in >10% inflation in the US in the comming months.

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on this analysis

Crang said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Hope more EU countries re-arm.

Click to expand...

to be sure, there must be a difference between re-arming ie Sweden funding its own indigenous military tech eg Gripen, Saab etc and just giving money to US lobbyists and the Pentagon ie vassalage to the US.

siegecrossbow said:

Real strength is pointing out that the Biden admin has performed so poorly at creating U.S. jobs that their greatest "enemy" started doing it for them.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Qin Gang is simply amazing so far. Handsome, confident, comfortable, friendly, but can also do a perfect poker face. I hope he can become the next minister of MFA after Wang Yi. Wang Yi has been great. But I think is more Asian style. We need European expert like Qin to play a bigger role.

solarz said:

The main issue is still Taiwan. The US has now abandoned three minions in quick succession: HK, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. Here, the US propaganda is going to work against it. Taiwanese are currently convinced Ukraine is winning, so when Kiev falls, they're going to be shocked out of their minds. We may very well see a sea change of public opinion soon.

Click to expand...

Are we going to see some Taiwanese try to seek rapprochement do you think, or are they just going to start crying louder?

OppositeDay said:

Joining EU requires press freedom, i.e. allowing Western influence to control your media. Not sure how long can the Communist Party survive in such an environment.

Click to expand...

But there is no possible Russian party that will ever come to power to even apply for EU membership. EU membership isn't handed out, it's applied for. So if United Russia falls, then the next people up are CPRF. They'll never, ever allow an application for EU membership to even get started.

Crang said:

Are we going to see some Taiwanese try to seek rapprochement do you think, or are they just going to start crying louder?

Click to expand...

Both.

Some will be further along the acceptance cycle and be pragmatic.
Others will go further along the denial/anger phase.

But my read is that the majority will be more pragmatic.

lube said:

I'm trying to think how a massive European rearmament will actually save Europe from its declining economic irrelevance.
Especially with the sanctions cutting off Russia. It isn't going to help.
Yes, a stronger European military will slowly push it towards become more independent from the US, and less aligned but it won't help the former.

Click to expand...

The EU will still be a large economic and industrial bloc for the next 20+ years.
I actually see the Ukraine crisis moving the EU much further along as an military bloc in the future, independent of the US/NATO.

lube said:

As for the BRI. While the intended end point is Asia to Western Europe, there's a lot of space in between. It's hard to read those tea leaves, but the one scenario people tend to assume will continue is the Western countries become richer and more powerful while the rest of MENA/Africa remain unstable and poor. This is the only scenario where the BRI will falter.

Click to expand...

Remember that China actually does a lot more trade with Asia, Africa, Middle East etc than with Western Europe.
BRI is really just the branding for China's globalisation drive all over the world.