Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
BRI will still be going strong in global south.
I think its going to be very interesting watching where trade goes after this ends. Does China keep trading a lot with the EU?
They're going to fully commit to the US now.
Although, that was probably going to happen anyways.
But I'm still quite worried. China's massive trade with the world was a benefit for everyone. Now the US has successfully disrupted it.
Can the west keep inflation down? If not, good for China.
The world economic outlook just got a lot more chaotic. Bad for China.
Over and over we come to just how important the global south is for the future. Expect to see a lot more interventions by the US, I think. More countries need to prepare to be targeted by the US, whether with soft power (join us, fellow human rights lover!) or hard power (your elections are fake!)
They're going to fully commit to the US now.
Although, that was probably going to happen anyways.
But I'm still quite worried. China's massive trade with the world was a benefit for everyone. Now the US has successfully disrupted it.
Can the west keep inflation down? If not, good for China.
The world economic outlook just got a lot more chaotic. Bad for China.
Over and over we come to just how important the global south is for the future. Expect to see a lot more interventions by the US, I think. More countries need to prepare to be targeted by the US, whether with soft power (join us, fellow human rights lover!) or hard power (your elections are fake!)
This could hurt the U.S Anti-China strategy really bad, in the eyes of the U.S China is still its biggest threat but for the Europeans they are gonna view Russia as an even bigger threat. The Europeans could try to divide the Russia-China friendship to by trying courting China with less export controls and better economic ties, nightmare fuel for the U.S.
Like someone posted before there is a possibility the Russia could make things difficult for the U.S. in the Middle East, i don't think the Russians now care if Iran gets the bomb, in fact it could be convenient for them for Iran to get the bomb.
Its also can make things difficult for the U.S in the pacific, by selling game changing weapons to China, for that reason i think Japan, SK, Singapore and most of Asia will reestablish normal economic relations with Russia in the short term. especially Japan who is really fearful of seeing China getting new weapons.
It could make China alternative financial system more appealing, a lot of countries still have ties with Russia, by example Bolsonaro didn't even condemn the invasion "is the fight between two brothers" so is possible that they could use China as link to that country bypassing the West financial system. That will give a boost to China financial system.
Nothing is for sure, but what is sure is that the Chinese leadership are studying this events really really carefully, they are taking notes on everything and they try will to find every single weakness.
Like someone posted before there is a possibility the Russia could make things difficult for the U.S. in the Middle East, i don't think the Russians now care if Iran gets the bomb, in fact it could be convenient for them for Iran to get the bomb.
Its also can make things difficult for the U.S in the pacific, by selling game changing weapons to China, for that reason i think Japan, SK, Singapore and most of Asia will reestablish normal economic relations with Russia in the short term. especially Japan who is really fearful of seeing China getting new weapons.
It could make China alternative financial system more appealing, a lot of countries still have ties with Russia, by example Bolsonaro didn't even condemn the invasion "is the fight between two brothers" so is possible that they could use China as link to that country bypassing the West financial system. That will give a boost to China financial system.
Nothing is for sure, but what is sure is that the Chinese leadership are studying this events really really carefully, they are taking notes on everything and they try will to find every single weakness.
The US is going to go apeshit towards China if money goes towards China and not back to the US; in fact that's the entire rationale for the new Cold War 2.0 and the trade/tech war.
US policymakers, they want to pull down an iron curtain across the west and the Five Eyes to make ensure they have a captive market that will continue to give money to decrepit uncompetitive US companies that spend more money doing stock buybacks than innovation.
Ever since the era of woodrow wilson the Americans have lusted for China's markets and wanted a monopoly on western trade with China; look at Australia cutting itself off from Chinese trade to US benefit- that's how the US wants it allies to behave. To sacrifice core interests so that east and west coast US Elites profit from all.
sorry, I meant to clarify: BRI into Europe might have failed due to Russia no longer being a good transit point. It is succeeding in SEA and MENA.
Regarding the Europeans trying to court China as a result... That's the opposite of what I'm thinking but i see your reasoning behind it. I think that might be more likely if the next US president turns out like Trump, where even the Europeans see China as the only stable power in the world.
But we just saw a demonstration that they're pretty deep in the US camp and the US has a vested interest in not letting them go to China.
It'll also succeed along the greek Piraeus points along with the Serbian channel and once Syria commences reconstruction, along Syria as well. Not to mention Portugal, France, Italy- BRI is far from dead and i gotta say, China's realpolitik is the shit; China wins either way, autistic screeching from pompeo and navarro notwithstanding.
Trade will still be going between China and Europe, and between China and the US, too. Until they can find new suppliers to replace China, they will have to buy from China. To balance trade, they will have to sell to China as well.
Not to mention that the Europeans are going to spend big on rearming, leaving even less chance for themselves to make stuff like cell phones, toys and port cranes.
@tokenanalyst bro excellent analysis, you had pinpointed the US dilemma. The Plan is to gang up on China, everybody in US believes that a Rising China is THE problem and must dealt with now! The Pandemic and Xi aftermath respond is what saves her, now instead of a collective west only the 5 eyes plus one Asian eye are "thinking" of containing her. The plan had gone awry and there is No Plan B, the crack in the collective west alliances intensify with the conflict in Ukraine. The US is stretch thin and her recent action is straining her more and more, she can't able to withstand the weight and need a policy change to withstood it, BUT will there be a rationale person able to take the challenge within the administration, I doubted it. The cancer tumor had grown bigger requiring a major surgery to save the patient.