Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
This is a made in Europe crisis, this war between Russia and Ukraine.

There is nothing for others to learn. The Europeans are at war with each other again.

That should be obvious. This is a European problem, and not a worldwide problem, like climate change.


What is interesting, is the United States, who is trying to implicate China in this problem.

Is the United States in Europe? Is China in Europe?

How is Europe's problem, everyone's problem?

The problem is some people are full of it, believe too much in their own propaganda.


One effect of this Russia Ukraine war, and the shrill rhetoric from Western media and politicians, that the global south losing interest in the shenanigans of the global north.

Their problems should be their problems. Leave everyone else out of it.

:D
 
Phead128

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Long-term impact of Ukrainian crisis:
  1. Russia re-orients it's economy towards China(e.g., more energy exports, CIPS supplanting SWIFT, greater yuan-ruble denominated trade, greater AIIB and BRI investment, perhaps joining RCEP)
    • China (still) retains strong trade relations with US, EU, Russia, and likely EU is the biggest loser from market shift.
  2. Europe will re-orients it's economy away from Russian energy dependence(e.g., renewable energy, nuclear energy, or alternative natural gas suppliers using LNG carriers)
    • Chinese solar industry will win big, as will Chinese LNG shipbuilding, particularly as Korean monopoly was denied and LNG carrier demand skyrockets.
  3. Renewed calls for a 'European Army' by France to promote EU integration and greater strategic autonomy from US-led foreign policy and US-dominated NATO alliance.
  4. Reduced morale and willpower in ROC Taiwan civilian population in response to lackluster US/Western support for naked aggression against Ukraine.
    • Moderates hardcore elements of Taiwanese independence movement, which is good for China.
  5. China increasing defense budget spending in face of uncertain security environment in the world.
  6. China waiting until more sanction-resistant by growing economy larger and larger before confronting West over Taiwan.
  7. United States chickshit warhawks emphasizing China as principle threat to US hegemony, but consistently getting side-tracked by Russia and European security matters, preventing US from exclusively focusing on China threat.
  8. Russia become more openly pro-Iran as a means to counter US dominance in Middle East. An emboldened Iran backed by Russia may also increase US attention away from China towards the Middle East.
  9. Korea will never be reunified in 10,000 years, as Russia will openly support North Korea and proactively evade sanctions.
  10. Western strategy shifts to waiting until Putin dies, so perhaps post-Putin successor can reset relations and counter a powerful China. China needs to be aware of West desiring "Reverse Nixon" post-Putin to counter China, and China MUST keep Russia in it's economic and political embrace.
  11. Renewed demands for UNSC Reform to include India, South Africa, Brazil as permanent members (who all more assertively condemned Russian actions) and diversify representation in UNSC and avoid bipolar competing camps among permanent members.
 
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horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
Is Belt and Road on hold and/or finished in Europe?
Click to expand...

Yes. No. Maybe.

Right now, the Europeans, or as some of us think, like cough cough, white people ... man, they're spooked!

They basically having a meltdown at the moment.

The white people still living with the problems from World War One!

Who knows what they are going to do?


My guess would be the old deals will not be cancelled, but any new deals will take time to materialize for Europe and China.

Europe does not know where it stands with China at the moment, because Europe does not knows where it stands with Europe.


So I think, the PRC is doing the right thing, keep a low profile regarding Europe, and keep criticizing the Americans!

:D
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Long-term impact of Ukrainian crisis:
  1. Russia re-orients it's economy towards China(e.g., more energy exports, CIPS supplanting SWIFT, greater yuan-ruble denominated trade, greater AIIB and BRI investment, perhaps joining RCEP)
    • China (still) retains strong trade relations with US, EU, Russia, and likely EU is the biggest loser from market shift.
  2. Europe will re-orients it's economy away from Russian energy dependence(e.g., renewable energy, nuclear energy, or alternative natural gas suppliers using LNG carriers)
    • Chinese solar industry will win big, as will Chinese LNG shipbuilding, particularly as Korean monopoly was denied and LNG carrier demand skyrockets.
  3. Renewed calls for a 'European Army' by France to promote EU integration and greater strategic autonomy from US-led foreign policy and US-dominated NATO alliance.
  4. Reduced morale and willpower in ROC Taiwan civilian population in response to lackluster US/Western support for naked aggression against Ukraine.
    • Moderates hardcore elements of Taiwanese independence movement, which is good for China.
  5. China increasing defense budget spending in face of uncertain security environment in the world.
  6. China waiting until more sanction-resistant by growing economy larger and larger before confronting West over Taiwan.
  7. United States chickshit warhawks emphasizing China as principle threat to US hegemony, but consistently getting side-tracked by Russia and European security matters, preventing US from exclusively focusing on China threat.
  8. Russia become more openly pro-Iran as a means to counter US dominance in Middle East. An emboldened Iran backed by Russia may also increase US attention away from China towards the Middle East.
  9. Korea will never be reunified in 10,000 years, as Russia will openly support North Korea and proactively evade sanctions.
  10. Western strategy shifts to waiting until Putin dies, so perhaps post-Putin successor can reset relations and counter a powerful China. China needs to be aware of West desiring "Reverse Nixon" post-Putin to counter China, and China MUST keep Russia in it's economic and political embrace.
  11. Renewed demands for UNSC Reform to include India, South Africa, Brazil as permanent members (who all more assertively condemned Russian actions) and diversify representation in UNSC and avoid bipolar competing camps among permanent members.
Click to expand...
I would add that the Chinese Industry will gain big from EU Industry becoming increasingly uncompetitive.

European LNG gas is very expensive + ultra cheap Russian gas to China = Death by thousands cuts for the European industry and big gain for China
 
Fedupwithlies

Fedupwithlies

Junior Member
Registered Member
If Trump or another similar to him wins in 2024, China will be seen as the sole island of stability in a world of chaos. This is good for China.

However, multiple European countries will be sacrificed to the US war machine. Someone said in another thread that the US is now cannibalizing her own allies. This has just been shown. This is bad for China.

I think some previously-neutral countries are starting to rethink their neutrality or near-neutrality. In many cases, this is previously western-leaning and wealthy but unaligned countries going full-tilt into the US sphere. This is bad for China.

The US and her allies will now have to devote a larger chunk of money, effort and thought into facing Russia, thereby reducing the pressure on China. This is good for China.

The US sanction regime just got a huge chunk of power removed. This is probably good for China, but I'm not so sure. I'm seeing the world economic landscape again turn into an EASTERN BLOC - WESTERN BLOC divide. If China can walk the tightrope and be the middleman than this is good for China, but if the US decides to force China into the eastern bloc (by trying to force China into the western bloc, which China is smart enough to avoid) then there will be a pretty tough time ahead for the entire world.

Overall, I think the long-term impact and fallout will depend on how 3rd party actors such as India, the Middle East and ASEAN react.

If these countries do not fall into the US sphere, I think the future will be bright for the outside world. If they do, then chaos will in the world. And I do think that's the two outcomes - either prosperity with the globe beyond US influence, or chaos with it.
 
O

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Long-term impact of Ukrainian crisis:
  1. Russia re-orients it's economy towards China(e.g., more energy exports, CIPS supplanting SWIFT, greater yuan-ruble denominated trade, greater AIIB and BRI investment, perhaps joining RCEP)
    • China (still) retains strong trade relations with US, EU, Russia, and likely EU is the biggest loser from market shift.
  2. Europe will re-orients it's economy away from Russian energy dependence(e.g., renewable energy, nuclear energy, or alternative natural gas suppliers using LNG carriers)
    • Chinese solar industry will win big, as will Chinese LNG shipbuilding, particularly as Korean monopoly was denied and LNG carrier demand skyrockets.
  3. Renewed calls for a 'European Army' by France to promote EU integration and greater strategic autonomy from US-led foreign policy and US-dominated NATO alliance.
  4. Reduced morale and willpower in ROC Taiwan civilian population in response to lackluster US/Western support for naked aggression against Ukraine.
    • Moderates hardcore elements of Taiwanese independence movement, which is good for China.
  5. China increasing defense budget spending in face of uncertain security environment in the world.
  6. China waiting until more sanction-resistant by growing economy larger and larger before confronting West over Taiwan.
  7. United States chickshit warhawks emphasizing China as principle threat to US hegemony, but consistently getting side-tracked by Russia and European security matters, preventing US from exclusively focusing on China threat.
  8. Russia become more openly pro-Iran as a means to counter US dominance in Middle East. An emboldened Iran backed by Russia may also increase US attention away from China towards the Middle East.
  9. Korea will never be reunified in 10,000 years, as Russia will openly support North Korea and proactively evade sanctions.
  10. Western strategy shifts to waiting until Putin dies, so perhaps post-Putin successor can reset relations and counter a powerful China. China needs to be aware of West desiring "Reverse Nixon" post-Putin to counter China, and China MUST keep Russia in it's economic and political embrace.
  11. Renewed demands for UNSC Reform to include India, South Africa, Brazil as permanent members (who all more assertively condemned Russian actions) and diversify representation in UNSC and avoid bipolar competing camps among permanent members.
Click to expand...


Regarding 11, I see nothing but Western disappointment at India. But Indian membership is almost universally supported so I don't see a UNSC reform happening without it.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Fedupwithlies said:
If Trump or another similar to him wins in 2024, China will be seen as the sole island of stability in a world of chaos. This is good for China.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I wouldn't underestimate this. If a crazy comes in power, the US will have a dramatic influence loss on countries. This alone could help China pass over this transitional period before becoming strong on its own right to resist the US


Fedupwithlies said:
However, multiple European countries will be sacrificed to the US war machine. Someone said in another thread that the US is now cannibalizing her own allies. This has just been shown. This is bad for China.
Click to expand...
Agreed. The farmer is coming to harvest the crops. Whatever country has weak leadership this decade might actually get destroyed ala-Ukraine.


Fedupwithlies said:
but if the US decides to force China into the eastern bloc (by trying to force China into the western bloc, which China is smart enough to avoid) then there will be a pretty tough time ahead for the entire world.
Click to expand...
China will play some Sun Tzu here. It will get involved in trade even more with all countries (US vassals or not) so that when the US tries to play that card, its own vassals and the rest of the world will collectively resist these efforts.


Fedupwithlies said:
Overall, I think the long-term impact and fallout will depend on how 3rd party actors such as India, the Middle East and ASEAN react.
Click to expand...
Middle East leans towards China. Very good

India leans to the US but we just saw with its Russia stance where the limits are. If it thinks that the US will help it economically or come to its help militarily to resist China then it is dreaming. It will remain US leaning but won't totally turn against China

ASEAN is split. Some want more with the US, some with China. I think China needs to solve the SCS issues (at the best time for it) and build a security architecture for ASEAN

Japan is a puppet. S.Korea is a vassal and its 1 candidate is already a CIA asset. Expect things to become difficult with these.
In any case, the whole world has just been taught the Ukrainian lesson. If they insist on their course, then their end is predetermined
 
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