Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

Fedupwithlies said:

If these countries do not fall into the US sphere, I think the future will be bright for the outside world. If they do, then chaos will in the world. And I do think that's the two outcomes - either prosperity with the globe beyond US influence, or chaos with it.

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What I like to say is the, "If," part of the concluding paragraph to the post.

There is the trade war.
There is the tech war.
Now there is real war.

Which side are people on?

China is already the biggest trader to the majority of nations in the world, and that will only get bigger because the Chinese economy is still growing strong, therefore it will import and export more.

China is already the largest manufacturing center in the world, bigger than, the US, Germany, Japan combined. China manufactures all types of goods high tech and low tech, that other countries want. Case in point, the UAE rejected their F-35 deal because they choose Huawei 5G. The Americans made the Huawei 5G fight a binary choice.

Military blocks, that depends on what an individual country believes is best for them.


The trade war, most countries are on the side of China, or on the side of China and America, both sides.

The tech war, most countries are on the side of China, or on the side of China and America, both sides.

The military blocks, that is almost like asking a country to choose between development and militarization. UAE made its choice.


So I agree with you, that those are the choices.

What I disagree about, it is not "If," as that this has already happened.

To choose a side, according to the Americans, is like exclusivity. If someone is truly on the US side, then they would ban Huawei like the Australians.

The Americans are only left with the choice of strong arming countries to choose the American lead military alliance, and sacrifice that country's economic relations with China.

It is literately a choice between peace or war!

I am an ethnic Chinese, and Chinese people are positive! That will never happen!

Can we talk about a post-Putin Russia? Obviously Putin will not quit volunterily anytime soon, but it will eventually happen, and Ukraine crisis closes some doors.

Possible scenarios:
1. Liberal democratic Russia joins EU, but not NATO. NATO loses relevance. Russia pushes for EU army. Russia becomes the pro-China voice in EU. Ukraine crisis will change Russian economy to be structurally dependent on China, which ensures it will be pro-China even if it democratizes after Putin.

2. Liberal democratic Russia joins NATO. Unlikely. The memories of Ukraine war will prevent Russia from turning itself into a NATO frontline against China. However, there could be a massive Western disinformation campaign to convince Russians that Putin launched the war on behalf of China, so Russia should join the West to punish China. Fox News will obviously go overdrive on this, but I think NYT will also push it.

3. Authoritarian Russia becomes pro-Western or neutral. Almost impossible. I think the chance of a normal relationship between the West and an authoritarian post-Putin Russia is almost zero.

4. Status quo. Authoritarian and Pro-China.

The choice is not between America and China.

The choice is development and win-win solutions.

Boring standard talk from you know who!

That is China soft power.




It is not cowboys and Indians.

It is not like Europe today.

Phead128 said:

Renewed demands for UNSC Reform to include India, South Africa, Brazil as permanent members (who all more assertively condemned Russian actions) and diversify representation in UNSC and avoid bipolar competing camps among permanent members.

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But the countries you listed here do not form a polar of its own. They will likely side with the existing camps. The Global South is balkanized as usual.

I actually think most countries will see the UN as less worthy unless UN can bring a peaceful end to the crisis. This is not happening.

horse said:

To choose a side, according to the Americans, is like exclusivity. If someone is truly on the US side, then they would ban Huawei like the Australians.

The Americans are only left with the choice of strong arming countries to choose the American lead military alliance, and sacrifice that country's economic relations with China.

It is literately a choice between peace or war!

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Maybe I'm just a pessimist but I'm not convinced everyone will choose peace. Australia, for example. Although I will say China's doing a good job of peeling New Zealand away from the US camp.

And they're making great in-roads into Latin and South America. But then we get Nepal, who's falling into the US camp. And Brazil, who's leader was really US's choice.

The world has really changed, and in a negative way for the west.

One, the rise of China, when we look at the trade and the tech, is a full frontal challenge to Western leadership in those areas. Who wins or does better, will be richer and better off, the citizens will be better off. The west is finally realizing what a tough challenge this will be with China.

Two, this current war between Russia and Ukraine, we can draw a straight line with the alliances all the way back to WW1 to WW2 to Cold War to now, it was all about the alliances. This is a significant internal problem for the west and Europe.

The west has to take on China an external issue, and handle their internal problems rooted in their alliances.

The west is in complete retreat.

Phead128 said:

1. Russia become more openly pro-Iran as a means to counter US dominance in Middle East. An emboldened Iran backed by Russia may also increase US attention away from China towards the Middle East.
2. Korea will never be reunified in 10,000 years, as Russia will openly support North Korea and proactively evade sanctions.

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That's a very good point. If Russia breaks the international embargo on North Korea, how could the North develop? They would be able to export goods via Russia to most of Asia. They might even become a high income country eventually

I just realized that this is Joe Biden’s first strategic win (consolidation of alliances in European theater) since the start of his presidency. When do you know you’ve screwed up? When an old geezer with bladder control problems and possible dementia wins at the expense of your strategic move.

There is the potential for this to embolden the West in the same way NATO's participation in the Yugoslav Wars drove Russia down the path to the current conflict.

At first I thought it was silly, but a South Korean nuclear arsenal and deployment of US nuclear weapons to Japan is actually a real possibility now. Japan's "enemy base attack capability" (acquiring land attack cruise missiles) is likely a foregone conclusion, and we will likely see even more intense provocations in Taiwan from Japan and the US as part of an effort to "deter" China and assure Taiwan.

I don't think we will see a Europeanization of NATO or whatever. Not only all of the Democrats, but basically every Republican outside of Trump himself and a small number of media supporters are now rabidly anti-Russian. The exact nature of a renewed American focus on Europe is hard to determine right now. If Kyiv falls, perhaps we might see an increase in conventional forces back to Cold War levels.

The Republicans will certainly win in 2022 and 2024, but the fate of Trump now hangs in the balance. His comments on Putin and Ukraine are really going to irk both the Republican Party and a fair number of his supporters. There are two possible outcomes I can see- someone Trumpish from the Trump administration wins the 2024 candidacy, or Trump some how fudges the nature of his comments like he walked off the "grab 'em by the..." comments, and ends up ok.

The European reaction over Ukraine is a little concerning, with the way that many nations have completely thrown away their economic ties with Russia. It makes me wonder how European nations might react to a conflict over Taiwan. We saw reluctance from European nations over SWIFT; I don't think we can say for sure how they will react to Taiwan- all China can do is build up economic ties to the greatest extent possible so that Europe will have no choice but to stay neutral lest they destroy their economies.

In a worst case scenario, we might see nations become more economically isolationist and self-sufficient, which would destroy China's economic leverage over them during a Taiwan conflict and pit Europe against China in such a crisis, and cause Japan, Australia, et al to throw caution into the wind and become even more antagonistic towards China than they were already. China can survive this, but ideally this hopefully won't happen.

If the "Second Cold War" was just a concept for the general public before, the world will quite visibly be split between two blocs; one Western led, the other "semi-non-aligned"*. The first will basically be the Cold War US bloc 2.0 (Western democracies and their authoritarian henchmen), while the second will be nominally led by China and consist of nations who are more about development and cooperation rather than antagonism over certain political issues. I don't think we will see a Cold War style non-aligned movement arise, China already has a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs (unlike the USSR), and therefore there isn't much need for such a bloc to be created.

China really needs to get its nuclear expansion complete and operational ASAP. A large nuclear arsenal will be the bedrock of stability going forwards. I am unaware of the reasons why China doesn't keep warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime, but if the reasons aren't critical (like command and control related), beginning to do so would be a good idea.

And then the biggest thing for China- educating its future leaders and people in general so they don't make mistakes like the ones that spiraled to the Ukraine conflict; political or otherwise. If you look at a graph of the Soviet economy, it was growing non-stop literally until Stalin died, and then things went downhill from there- we don't want a similar situation happening with Xi.

*The "semi-non-aligned" movement isn't really a bloc per se, just nations with normal healthy relations who aren't interested in the hypocrisy and various problems of the US and its allies.

Look at the twitter/clips/youtube vids of Ukrainian and Polish border guards beating up Indian and african students and forcing them to the back of the line and look at US new correspondenats consistently bemoan the fall of "white, european state" that woulld normally happen in browner countries but not 'civilised white nations'.
The global south sees as well.

How's that gonna pan out for a europe desperately needing the markets of the global south and the resources as well? The US as well despite hiding behind gunboat diplomacy?