Wow really? That’s it? Do you have a source. I hope is only 7%. I thought it would be like 15-20%. 7% is a bargin, if Putin succeeds in his goal.
Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
7% is nothing, Russia could actually recovery their economy in 2023 if 7% is all.
Here's a Russian analysis of the future of relations between China and Russia.
"Russia's divorce from the West has pushed it into China's arms, here's how it will work.
Beijing is the only major power to benefit from Moscow’s conflict with Kiev."
--Vasily Kashin
"China will replace the EU as our main trading partner, and a gradual reversal of trade flows to the East may become a factor
in the development of Siberia and the Far East, right down to the relocation of part of the population there from the European
part of the country. The negative impact of Western sanctions on Russian-Chinese cooperation will gradually weaken as China
itself is drawn into the sanctions confrontation with the West. Another important factor in this will be trading in yuan.
With a rational policy, Russia can come out of the Western embargo significantly strengthened, with more diversified foreign trade and
better developed export infrastructure in the Far East, as well as more balanced foreign relations that are more resistant to sanctions.
The price for this will be the undermining of the policy Moscow had been pursuing for many years to diversify its ties with Asia. Russia
will be forced to act in line with China’s Asian policy not only to contain the United States, but also to confront US allies led by Japan.
The negative impact of its partnership with China on relations with India and Vietnam can be minimized as long as these countries
remain independent players, not unduly beholden to the United States, and, thus, do not become priority targets for Chinese pressure."
"Russia's divorce from the West has pushed it into China's arms, here's how it will work.
Beijing is the only major power to benefit from Moscow’s conflict with Kiev."
--Vasily Kashin
"China will replace the EU as our main trading partner, and a gradual reversal of trade flows to the East may become a factor
in the development of Siberia and the Far East, right down to the relocation of part of the population there from the European
part of the country. The negative impact of Western sanctions on Russian-Chinese cooperation will gradually weaken as China
itself is drawn into the sanctions confrontation with the West. Another important factor in this will be trading in yuan.
With a rational policy, Russia can come out of the Western embargo significantly strengthened, with more diversified foreign trade and
better developed export infrastructure in the Far East, as well as more balanced foreign relations that are more resistant to sanctions.
The price for this will be the undermining of the policy Moscow had been pursuing for many years to diversify its ties with Asia. Russia
will be forced to act in line with China’s Asian policy not only to contain the United States, but also to confront US allies led by Japan.
The negative impact of its partnership with China on relations with India and Vietnam can be minimized as long as these countries
remain independent players, not unduly beholden to the United States, and, thus, do not become priority targets for Chinese pressure."
In the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), the United States defeated Mexico and captured Mexico City.
Then Americans were divided on whether the USA should claim all Mexico as its territory by conquest.
Eventually, the USA decided not to annex all Mexico largely on the grounds that a large non-white population
was unwelcome, would be always suspected of being disloyal, and never could be assimilated into the USA.
Should the USA treat its Mexicans as citizens equal to whites or as subjects near the same low levels of blacks or 'Indians'?
The future status of Mexicans in the USA posed an unresolved difficult question in American racial politics.
"We have never dreamt of incorporating into our Union any but the Caucasian race—the free white race. To incorporate Mexico,
would be the first instance of the kind, of incorporating an Indian race; for more than half of the Mexicans are Indians, and the
other is composed chiefly of mixed tribes. I protest against such a union as that! Ours, sir, is the government of a white race."
--John Calhoun
Even if Russia captured Kyiv, I expect that Putin would realize that forcing tens of millions of Ukrainian nationalists
to join his empire against their will would make Russia weaker, not stronger.
Ukraine doesn't have 40 million, closer to 30 million. It had 33-34 million before the invasion. Putin will not annex the whole of Ukraine because there is a strong and seperate Ukrainian identity in the West and parts of central Ukraine. He will settle for the Russian-speaking east. So that is maybe 10-15 million people. Not bad. Now add Belarus with 10 more people. Importantly, Crimea will get water again and lots of farmland in these regions.
The big question is if he wants the whole coast, i.e. Odessa too.
The big question is if he wants the whole coast, i.e. Odessa too.
"Ukraine doesn't have 40 million, closer to 30 million. It had 33-34 million before the invasion."
Ukraine's estimated population (excluding Crimea) in January 2022 was more than 41 million.
The 2001 Census found a population of 48,457,102.
"Following the , Ukraine's population hit a peak of roughly 52 million in 1993.
However, due to its exceeding its , mass emigration, poor living conditions, and low-quality
health care, the total population decreased by 6.6 million, or 12.8% from the same year to 2014."
Now that the situation has become more clear, I think it's going to be a net negative for the west and a small net positive for the US.
Europe is going to be heavily hit economically. Not only have they lost a ton of cheap power, they are now being forced by public sentiment to splurge on military. No matter whether they buy domestic or from the US it's a net negative for the economy. Military spending gives little economic return compared to more productive areas.
The US however is going to become stronger (assuming they don't get too screwed by inflation). They're going to buy up European assets on the cheap and sell weapons and LNG to europe. However, this won't make up for the loss of strength of Europe, which is a colony of the US empire.
What remains to be seen is whether Europe adopts a more independent stance in terms of tech, internet and economic policy. At this point I'd say they have been too thoroughly infiltrated by the US to do so.
Europe is going to be heavily hit economically. Not only have they lost a ton of cheap power, they are now being forced by public sentiment to splurge on military. No matter whether they buy domestic or from the US it's a net negative for the economy. Military spending gives little economic return compared to more productive areas.
The US however is going to become stronger (assuming they don't get too screwed by inflation). They're going to buy up European assets on the cheap and sell weapons and LNG to europe. However, this won't make up for the loss of strength of Europe, which is a colony of the US empire.
What remains to be seen is whether Europe adopts a more independent stance in terms of tech, internet and economic policy. At this point I'd say they have been too thoroughly infiltrated by the US to do so.
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The biggest benefactor will be the American MIC. Even if European countries want out of NATO every single one will want to militarise like 30s Europe. The rich countries will get the new toys, whereas eastern Europe will have to make do with old stock. All of which will be useless in a nuclear war, which is the only real threat Russia has against NATO.
If Europe is really going to stop buying Russian gas there should be some sort of agreement from the US to offset some of the losses incurred. Maybe transfer some of their strategic reserves, contribute to the cost of all the new wind farms that will be built everywhere. Somehow I doubt that will happen and I think Europe will be expected to bear all of the costs themselves.