Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

victoon

Junior Member
Registered Member
this is indeed a tough position for China to maneuver. Here are some arguments China could adopt:

1) regarding to Ukraine war, China understands that the US has taken a different response to Russia. We respect US's position even though we don't think it helps with the situation. The US and China are both independent actors fully capably of making their own judgments. But if the US choose to harm China's interest because China did not adopt the same position, we will resolutely respond such imperial behavior.

2) Not only China, all countries have wisely been cautious about their words and actions in response to the Ukraine crisis. This includes the US as reflected by the handling of Polish Mig29s. Again, the US is free to do what it need to do in relation to Russia. But it needs to let other countries pursue their own course of response based on each country's own unique situation.

3) Russia and China are friends. This friendship is here to stay as the course has been chosen by the people and leadership of both countries. But that doesn't mean China endorses Russia's every action. What it does mean is that both countries have opted to interact through respectful communication to resolve our differences rather than coercion and so called deterrence and containment. In fact we believe it's a better way to influence each other and make changes. It was under similar believe that the US and China came together 50s years ago. But from what we have seen, nowadays the US seems to lean more and more toward 'my way or the highway' mentality.

 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
What is the European war really about and what is it?

It is a replay of World War 1 which ushered in more instability?

Is it the start of a new Cold War?

I strongly believe it is the former, this is a replay of World War 1, and the Europeans are screwed because the could not solve their problems.

However, many hold the view of the latter, that this is a new Cold War, and nations will take sides. I disagree completely with, although I could be wrong in the future.

However, that is not really the point.

If you were a European, what would you prefer? World War 1 again and the meat grinder, or portential instant nuclear vapourization with the nuke knife always on your throat? Obviously, one of these choices is better than the other one!

Stop laughing!

:rolleyes::D
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Stop laughing!

:rolleyes::D

But ... there is a larger point here too!

The question is that are the Americans playing a dirty game?

Remember they set all the fires in the Middle East, therefore, they were the strongest player, and kept people under control (most of the time).

Are the Americans deliberately causing this instability inside Europe?

The advantages to cause this instability:-

1) keep Europe weaker therefore no challenges to US lead power of the west

2) try to derail the integration of the Eurasian continent which is prevent Chinese power from expanding

3) give a problem to Russia, which in turn could be a problem for China

4) this is a more complicated reason, is that a rising power like China, for example a country like Vietnam can shun China, or get closer to China and ride its coattails upwards, which is what Vietnam has done, without addressing historical and present grievances.

The idea is to get close to the enemy. With Europe in flames, maybe that allows the United States to advance their interests in China, to be ahead of the European interests?

It is very dirty I think, but the Europeans fell for it.

------------- -------------

The big mistake was that new leader in Germany. He should have never have backed those anti-Russian sanctions.

But Scholz did and now there are no more cards to play.

Of course, there are more cards to play, but those are all self-destructive too. Destructive for German, not so much America.

That is the state of European leaderships. Only have bad cards to play that will make things worst for yourself, and after that, they are looking at a future of WW1 replay or a Cold War replay!

That is some real black humour there! :p

What is wrong with the win-win relationships and mutual respect?

Look who comes out good!

The Americans gets to sell some oil and gas, along with greasing the military-industrial complex. The Chinese will continue to do business with everybody.

In a way, this is good for America. They try to stay in the game with China, and still have hope their allies get their act together.

Will that work?

There is an X-factor on the horizon ...

(dramatic music) =

Coming to a voting booth near you!

:oops:

 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
But ... there is a larger point here too!

The question is that are the Americans playing a dirty game?

Remember they set all the fires in the Middle East, therefore, they were the strongest player, and kept people under control (most of the time).

Are the Americans deliberately causing this instability inside Europe?

The advantages to cause this instability:-

1) keep Europe weaker therefore no challenges to US lead power of the west

2) try to derail the integration of the Eurasian continent which is prevent Chinese power from expanding

3) give a problem to Russia, which in turn could be a problem for China

4) this is a more complicated reason, is that a rising power like China, for example a country like Vietnam can shun China, or get closer to China and ride its coattails upwards, which is what Vietnam has done, without addressing historical and present grievances.

The idea is to get close to the enemy. With Europe in flames, maybe that allows the United States to advance their interests in China, to be ahead of the European interests?

It is very dirty I think, but the Europeans fell for it.

------------- -------------

The big mistake was that new leader in Germany. He should have never have backed those anti-Russian sanctions.

But Scholz did and now there are no more cards to play.

Of course, there are more cards to play, but those are all self-destructive too. Destructive for German, not so much America.

That is the state of European leaderships. Only have bad cards to play that will make things worst for yourself, and after that, they are looking at a future of WW1 replay or a Cold War replay!

That is some real black humour there! :p

What is wrong with the win-win relationships and mutual respect?

Look who comes out good!

The Americans gets to sell some oil and gas, along with greasing the military-industrial complex. The Chinese will continue to do business with everybody.

In a way, this is good for America. They try to stay in the game with China, and still have hope their allies get their act together.

Will that work?

There is an X-factor on the horizon ...

(dramatic music) =

Coming to a voting booth near you!

:oops:

@horse Brother three words, The Great Reset!
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Curious as to what effects will Putin's decision to invade Ukraine have on Xi's efforts to secure a third term. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Xi will be allowed to stay on. And Putin's disastrous decision makes the case that being in power for too long makes leaders prone to bad decisions. Xi's push for common prosperity was already facing backlash and had to be toned down. Same for his signature environment campaign.

On the other hand, the crisis also strengths the argument for stable leadership.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Its monumental shift. when German has to increasingly use Turkish and Mideastern Airspace to do business in the East. how far the Jet travel avoiding BlackSea.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Herbert Diess warns Ukraine war risks economic damage worse than pandemic that could could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation.​

The interruption to global supply chains "could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation," Diess told the Financial Times in a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Thursday.
Diess also said that Europe faces huge threat of higher inflation from prolonged conflict in Ukraine




 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
On the other hand, the crisis also strengths the argument for stable leadership.

They saw this coming all along.

The CCP was planning for this world chaos over 10 years ago.

They did not know what will happen exactly, they just knew that they better be prepared for anything.

Stability in leadership was a key point to them.

Xi Jinping should be leader, another 5 years, could be another 10 years. After him, the world would have changed.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Its monumental shift. when German has to increasingly use Turkish and Mideastern Airspace to do business in the East. how far the Jet travel avoiding BlackSea.
It is like I said. European airline flights to Asia will be borked. Everyone knew that Russia would retaliate like that. Back in Soviet times foreign companies could not even fly over their airspace at all. This will strengthen the position of Turkish, Middle Eastern, and Chinese airline companies in that segment. People will just switch to those flights instead of adding 3 more hours to their flight. In a lot of cases Middle Eastern companies were already either cheaper or higher quality to begin with. Main disadvantage of Middle Eastern flights was longer route. But now even that disadvantage is gone.

Eventually, Russia could even add tolls which only European and US made aircraft would pay, and thus make Chinese and Russian aircraft more appealing in the Eurasian market. I can see it happening if they continue blocking aircraft maintenance and parts to Russia's civil airline industry a decade from now.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Lol, that's going to go way down in a few months when they see how ravaged Ukraine becomes. I suppose the average person is sitting at home and getting only glowing reports about how well Ukraine is doing and thinking "we can do this too".

I guarantee you that the Taiwanese elites want no part of a real war with the mainland.

Right now, people are only beginning to sense the effects of this war and sanctions. Stats came out that Russian GDP will go down 7%. Not great, but also not as painful for the average Russians as some people were hoping for. Why would the average Russians care about the oligarchs losing a yacht or a mansion? Here in America, inflation is already going out of control thanks to all the supply chain issues and money printing. And in Europe, things will be far worse. Of course, China will also be suffering due to the zero covid policy. Regardless, we are in for a lot of hardship in the years ahead. The enthusiasm from some to get into a WW3 will fade away as this thing drags on and people's bottom lines are hurt.
 
Top