Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

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The author reflects whether the West is indeed winning the infowar. He aruges that, as the iron curtain of information age cuts Russia out of the global internet, the West itself has become the receiving end of its own attacks. The disinformation from the West started affecting the decision-makings in their home.

SanWenYu said:

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The author reflects whether the West is indeed winning the infowar. He aruges that, as the iron curtain of information age cuts Russia out of the global internet, the West itself has become the receiving end of its own attacks. The disinformation from the West started affecting the decision-makings in their home.

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The fact that the US retook control over all their social media platforms openly, banning all russian and anti-west viewpoints was probably a mistake.

Now the entire world is going to realise they cannot depend on US companies to be neutral. India and the rest of the non western world is going to be pushing for their own social media.

There never was freedom in the US in the first place. When it was legal for Americans to have slaves, they were holding up democracy as being sacred just like they do today. The only thing that will get the rest of the world upset is when they're being denied it personally and not when others are being denied. Look at Asian countries like Japan. The only time they'll cry about human rights is when it's an attack against China. Before China's rise that got the Americans worried, Japan just sat back hiding behind the US when it came to human rights in the world. They just wanted to make money and not get involved in anything the West was crying over human rights in other parts of the world. The same with other Asian countries allied with the US. Nationalism is what drives them not any human rights violations. Look at today with the alt-right. They hide behind American freedom yet the want to deny non-whites the right to an equal vote. That's not anything new, they were always like that meaning they never believed in the freedoms they demand the world to thank them for defending.

The harshest sanctions imposed on Russia are the theft of its foreign currency reserves. Ten years ago the SWIFT sanctions would cause panic, not anymore. All the other sanctions are punctual and really do not cause THAT much harm to Russia's economy.

The companies which are fleeing Russia are leaving valuable assets behind which the Russia government will soon make it keep running under new ownership. Unless I am mistaken, it seems to me that all branches of McDonald's, Burger King, Starbucks, etc... etc... are functioning full steam with the benefit of not having to pay for royalties to the franchiser.

In the first few days, there was panic with people queing around the block to draw against their bank accounts.

But let's analyze a little bit about the harshest of those sanctions, the theft of the FX reserves. How do they affect the Russian economy.

Those reserves are, for all practical purposes, the equivalent of an individual's savings account. He has accumulated those savings throughout a given period in order to maybe use them in a rainy day. But mind you, those are SAVINGS!!! They are not to be used on a daily basis. On a daily basis you use your regular paycheck. You use whatever you earn on a weekly, quarterly, or monthly basis. You actually don't NEED your savings. They were just quietly sitting there at the bank. You don't die if you lose your savings.

If you have accumulated savings (or reserves in the case of countries) , it means that you earn MORE THAN YOU SPEND.

So, again, if a country accumulates reserves it means that it is exporting more than it is importing. It means your "salary" covers all you monthly expenses and there is a little to be kept aside at the end of the month.

Well, Russia was acccumulating reserves with gas prices much much lower than today's prices. It was accumulating reserves with oil prices much, much lower than today's prices.

What conclusion can one arrive at?

Well, if Russia exported considerably more than it imported when it was selling gas and oil and wheat and minerals at much, much lower prices one can confidently say it is in a better situation today than it was before its reserves were stolen, i.e., its saving capacity today is much higher than it was before the war, befores being stolen and before commodities prices shoot sky high.

In fact, with the incredibly high prices Russia's commdities are being sold, it should not have any difficulties weathering the rough time it will face in the coming months.

It is certainly hard to face hardship such as a divorce, a car accident or fire in your home when you have no money in your pocket. But if you are granted a huuuugggeee salary increase, your life can quite quickly be rearranged.

It will have supply chain problems in those items that were imported. Russians will have a hard time buying Gucci and Dior bags or garments They may not be able to buy shortly any Louboutin shoes. They will also have difficulty buying German, French or Italian cars. They may not be able to open bottles of champagne in their restaurants or drink French, Italian or German wines. But... come on! They can live withou that without needing to starve or go naked.

More importantly, if you have a steady increased income, as a country, you will very shortly develop a very, very, very solid industrial park in order to substitute imports.

One of the ways countries can develop their industrial base is to replace imports.

If you are cash rich, this will not be a problem.

Mind you, Russia is self sufficient in energy, in food and has a highly educated population.

They will substitute imports very, very quickly and this will absorb a hell of a lot of people.

I can bet that in just a few months its economy will hire any and all people who may be un-employed because of the shock and aw of the sanctions and in a few months it will be running at full employment.

IF YOU HAVE A VERY HIGH INCOME FROM IMPORTS, you can develop very rapidly your country and absorb all people at working age by means of replacing imports.

Being self sufficient in energy and food. Exporting your products at a much, much higher price ... and being forced to replace imports. You have a recipe for exceptionally high GDP growth.

Meanwhile, Europe.... need I say anything?

AssassinsMace said:

There never was freedom in the US in the first place. When it was legal for Americans to have slaves, they were holding up democracy as being sacred just like they do today. The only thing that will get the rest of the world upset is when they're being denied it personally and not when others are being denied. Look at Asian countries like Japan. The only time they'll cry about human rights is when it's an attack against China. Before China's rise that got the Americans worried, Japan just sat back hiding behind the US when it came to human rights in the world. They just wanted to make money and not get involved in anything the West was crying over human rights in other parts of the world. The same with other Asian countries allied with the US. Nationalism is what drives them not any human rights violations. Look at today with the alt-right. They hide behind American freedom yet the want to deny non-whites the right to an equal vote. That's not anything new, they were always like that meaning they never believed in the freedoms they demand the world to thank them for defending.

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It's just a lever for influence, and they will turn their back on it once they don't control it anymore. Just look at "free trade"

tygyg1111 said:

It's just a lever for influence, and they will turn their back on it once they don't control it anymore. Just look at "free trade"

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It's like everything else the West claims they believe in. It's not because they embrace the principles for all. They do it because they want to define what it is. The greatest criminals in the history of the world when it comes to human rights violations being able to define it...? It's because it's not about identifying and stopping human rights violations. It about denying claims of human rights violations especially of their own. Why does the West have the victim culture? It's because they want to control who's considered a victim especially when it's one of their own victims. Why is it that if they care about righting the wrongs by identifying victims, they only pay attention to one or two victims at a time. All the victims of the world have to take a ticket before their number is called before they can get any help. The victim culture has been around for over fifty years and they're still on ticket number one. How convenient!

Canada froze the accounts of people who funded the trucker protests. This kind of government creep started when the US imposed heavy handed control over the global banking sector to "stop terrorism and funding of Al-Qaeda". That was when banking secrecy was rolled down worldwide and now we have this.

Russia seems to have handled the economic impacts quite well. They still have smart people in the central bank and other economic departments and appear to (whether really or not) shrugged off the so called nuclear option of swift breakage.

In fact, most russians have felt little impact of the sanctions and it's mostly american media jerking themselves off about how they've destroyed the russian economy.

On a macroeconomic level that is true. But consumer price inflation is pretty bad right now.
To large degree this is caused by the SWIFT cut and the boycott by the Western transportation companies.
The banking sector needs to get its shit together.

Russia-China relationship article: