I am new here but I’m a geopolitics, defense and history nerd. The ramifications of this war will be far and wide. I’ll go by each region:
Russia and Ukraine: Despite everything we hear on social media and the western msm Russia is winning and is going all out on the Ukrainians. Unless some miracle happens Russia will win. It’s looking like Russia made a move to Kiev’s a feint to prevent reinforcements from the west go east. Russia has taken over Kherson. Khariv will likely fall very soon. Along with Mauripol. This will close of Ukraine from the Sea of Azov. After that there will be a push to Odessa. Then there will be a Donbas “pocket” where 65k Ukraine’s best soldiers are located. Once Russia takes the South and East we will likely see negotiations because at that point morale will collapse. Putin knows an occupation of all of Ukraine would be Chechnya on steroids. So it’s likely there will be a partition of Ukraine. East Ukraine a pro Russian state that will have Russian military bases. West Ukraine a EU ally but economically broken.
Russia faces harsh sanctions and how they will move along this will determine everything. Best case scenario a deep economic depression but Russia recovering by being closer to China albeit much weaker. Worst case scenario collapse of the Russian economy and break up of Russia which is unlikely as China will not allow that to happen. There will be a new Iron Curtain but it will be between west and east Ukraine.
China: China is looking at this and realizing this is the exact playbook the west will use against them in the event of hostilities with Taiwan. China may hold of a military operation and make preparations for the economic fallout. China is likely gonna be the dominate partner to a weak Russia starved for cash. China is likely to drive a very hard bargain for advanced Russian weaponry which benefits China more. China is likely to have a more advanced military than before. And China may speed up plans to end the dollar reign as world reserve currency. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Republican takes power and sanction China which will push Beijing for de-dollarization. China and Russia may bring Iran further more into their orbit.
India: New Delhi is a major bind. We have a situation where India the largest democracy in the world is not allying with other Indian countries because of their ties with Russia. Also they are now on the same side with China. India need Russian oil and sees no replacement. Only way this changes is if the Iran nuclear deal maintains. If it fails they may need to see oil from the Gulf states who ally with Pakistan. This could make it vulnerable to future hostilities with Pakistan. So India will be opposed to Russian sanctions which means they may bypass it.
Europe: Europe is United and has a new mission which is to confront Russia. There is talks to increase NATO military spending with Germany leading the way but that takes years to establish. Another is Europe will wean away from Russian gas but that will bring a lot of economic pain at home. High energy prices will be a problem for Europe going forward even if there is replacements from the US and Mideast. This could create political instability. A massive refugee crisis could arise as well which will destabilize things for neighboring countries. We will see increased authoritarianism in the nations around Russia and Ukraine. This will put the EU/NATO in a tough spot.
MENA: This biggest effect is the Iran nuclear talks. If ties between the West and Russia deteriorate, Russia could make talks collapse. Iran could feel in a stronger position than before. If talks collapse Iran could continue going fulls peed ahead with their nuclear program this creating another crisis area for the US. Israel will be drumming the beat of war for something to be done to Iran’s program. It’s very likely Iran could receive some advanced weapons from Russia on a discount. Tensions between Israel/KSA against Iran could worsen and likely can lead to open warfare which would benefit Russia because if Mideast oil is offline this will make the European energy crisis much worse. The higher food prices could lead to another wave of insecurity and instability in weak nations like Iraq,Yemen, Lebanon, Syria etc. Nations that were shielded from the Arab spring could face the heat of high food prices leading to more civil unrest,governments overthrown(I’m looking at you KSA). The proxy war between Iran and KSA will get worse. KSA may host Israeli jets to bomb Iran if the nuclear talks collapse.They IS will likely spend much more blood and treasure in the Middle East at a time they pivot to Russia in Europe. This will prevent the full pivot to Asia to confront China. The US will be stretched thin but more about this US later.
If I was Russia I would collapse talks and give Iran nuclear knowhow. The idea is to goad Israel to bomb Iran and have a war which devastates the oil/gas infrastructure of the Gulf monarchies which would hurt Europe even more.
With word that a new Iran deal is near this will be a boon for Iran. Israel and KSA will be infuriated which means the proxy war between the two sides will intensify further in the battle spaces in Yemen and Syria. And likely seen new proxy battle spaces arise in Iraq and Lebanon. This will put the US in a awkward position.
Global Economy: Prices for food, minerals, oil and gas will remain high. The sanctions and war in Ukraine will have a ripple effect across the globe. It’s likely the 2020s will be a decade of stagflation. Inflation with stagnating growth. This will have massive ramifications around the world. Weak nations will be pushed over the edge or collapse. Political polarization in rich strong nations will get worse. Radical ideologies will be much more common place as establishment politicians will be seen as weak and the cause of the economic pain. Crime will rise even further. Terrorism will get worse.
Weak nations that are democracies will either plunge into civil war or authoritarian dictatorships. Weak authoritarian nations will be facing major problems and likely face civil war as well. Last year we saw a preview of this with massive protest movements in Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, India, France, US with George Floyd protest etc. Lots of people around the world are pissed. Add stagflation this will push people over the edge. The price of things will get higher. Shortages will become common place.
USA: with this war it provides the IS a short term win. It weakens Russia, unites Americas European allies and gives NATO a reason to exist. However this will lead to long term problems. For one the Asia pivot is not gonna happen. The US is unable to divide their attention between Russia and China. They will try though. And as I em too Ed about about global stagflation this will lead to local police actions but the US to
Combat terrorism or at worse getting bogged in a regional war. Take for example Iraq or Lebanon. food prices could push the country into a crisis which leads to regional powers supporting their proxy armies. The US may need to step in to stop war enflaming tensions with Iran. If nuclear talks fail it’s likely gonna lead the Iran problem get worse leading to a standoff between Israel/ Gulf Arab buddies against Iran and their proxies will get worse. The US will get sucked into the Mideast again. Domestically stagflation will not go well with the American people. We have midterm election this fall. The Republican Party is on pace to win the House of Representatives. This will make Biden a lame duck president. Nothing will get done in Washington. He is already very unpopular. Rumor has it he told people back in 2020 that he will be president for one term and be a placeholder for somebody else. Now if the economy still sucks and stagflation gets worse he will be come more unpopular. That will give him the excuse to not run. If Trumps runs for the GOP again he may beat Biden again. In whatever scenario it is Biden or the Dems aren’t gonna win in 2024. Right now the favorite is Trump or the governor of Florida DeSantis. The thing with America right now is that it’s so polarized that ever election after 2016 is now contested and the other side cannot accept losing. So American division will get worse. The US will be stretched thin trying to confront Russia, China. And still having troops in the Mideast to deal with the chaos and confront an Iran close to nuclear power. The Republican Party are very militaristic. They believe the US can confront China,Russia,North Korea,Iran at the same time fighting terrorism around the globe. So I expect more imperial over reach while the domestic economic situation worsens which will further the division of the country.
Russia and Ukraine: Despite everything we hear on social media and the western msm Russia is winning and is going all out on the Ukrainians. Unless some miracle happens Russia will win. It’s looking like Russia made a move to Kiev’s a feint to prevent reinforcements from the west go east. Russia has taken over Kherson. Khariv will likely fall very soon. Along with Mauripol. This will close of Ukraine from the Sea of Azov. After that there will be a push to Odessa. Then there will be a Donbas “pocket” where 65k Ukraine’s best soldiers are located. Once Russia takes the South and East we will likely see negotiations because at that point morale will collapse. Putin knows an occupation of all of Ukraine would be Chechnya on steroids. So it’s likely there will be a partition of Ukraine. East Ukraine a pro Russian state that will have Russian military bases. West Ukraine a EU ally but economically broken.
Russia faces harsh sanctions and how they will move along this will determine everything. Best case scenario a deep economic depression but Russia recovering by being closer to China albeit much weaker. Worst case scenario collapse of the Russian economy and break up of Russia which is unlikely as China will not allow that to happen. There will be a new Iron Curtain but it will be between west and east Ukraine.
China: China is looking at this and realizing this is the exact playbook the west will use against them in the event of hostilities with Taiwan. China may hold of a military operation and make preparations for the economic fallout. China is likely gonna be the dominate partner to a weak Russia starved for cash. China is likely to drive a very hard bargain for advanced Russian weaponry which benefits China more. China is likely to have a more advanced military than before. And China may speed up plans to end the dollar reign as world reserve currency. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Republican takes power and sanction China which will push Beijing for de-dollarization. China and Russia may bring Iran further more into their orbit.
India: New Delhi is a major bind. We have a situation where India the largest democracy in the world is not allying with other Indian countries because of their ties with Russia. Also they are now on the same side with China. India need Russian oil and sees no replacement. Only way this changes is if the Iran nuclear deal maintains. If it fails they may need to see oil from the Gulf states who ally with Pakistan. This could make it vulnerable to future hostilities with Pakistan. So India will be opposed to Russian sanctions which means they may bypass it.
Europe: Europe is United and has a new mission which is to confront Russia. There is talks to increase NATO military spending with Germany leading the way but that takes years to establish. Another is Europe will wean away from Russian gas but that will bring a lot of economic pain at home. High energy prices will be a problem for Europe going forward even if there is replacements from the US and Mideast. This could create political instability. A massive refugee crisis could arise as well which will destabilize things for neighboring countries. We will see increased authoritarianism in the nations around Russia and Ukraine. This will put the EU/NATO in a tough spot.
MENA: This biggest effect is the Iran nuclear talks. If ties between the West and Russia deteriorate, Russia could make talks collapse. Iran could feel in a stronger position than before. If talks collapse Iran could continue going fulls peed ahead with their nuclear program this creating another crisis area for the US. Israel will be drumming the beat of war for something to be done to Iran’s program. It’s very likely Iran could receive some advanced weapons from Russia on a discount. Tensions between Israel/KSA against Iran could worsen and likely can lead to open warfare which would benefit Russia because if Mideast oil is offline this will make the European energy crisis much worse. The higher food prices could lead to another wave of insecurity and instability in weak nations like Iraq,Yemen, Lebanon, Syria etc. Nations that were shielded from the Arab spring could face the heat of high food prices leading to more civil unrest,governments overthrown(I’m looking at you KSA). The proxy war between Iran and KSA will get worse. KSA may host Israeli jets to bomb Iran if the nuclear talks collapse.They IS will likely spend much more blood and treasure in the Middle East at a time they pivot to Russia in Europe. This will prevent the full pivot to Asia to confront China. The US will be stretched thin but more about this US later.
If I was Russia I would collapse talks and give Iran nuclear knowhow. The idea is to goad Israel to bomb Iran and have a war which devastates the oil/gas infrastructure of the Gulf monarchies which would hurt Europe even more.
With word that a new Iran deal is near this will be a boon for Iran. Israel and KSA will be infuriated which means the proxy war between the two sides will intensify further in the battle spaces in Yemen and Syria. And likely seen new proxy battle spaces arise in Iraq and Lebanon. This will put the US in a awkward position.
Global Economy: Prices for food, minerals, oil and gas will remain high. The sanctions and war in Ukraine will have a ripple effect across the globe. It’s likely the 2020s will be a decade of stagflation. Inflation with stagnating growth. This will have massive ramifications around the world. Weak nations will be pushed over the edge or collapse. Political polarization in rich strong nations will get worse. Radical ideologies will be much more common place as establishment politicians will be seen as weak and the cause of the economic pain. Crime will rise even further. Terrorism will get worse.
Weak nations that are democracies will either plunge into civil war or authoritarian dictatorships. Weak authoritarian nations will be facing major problems and likely face civil war as well. Last year we saw a preview of this with massive protest movements in Colombia, Cuba, Haiti, India, France, US with George Floyd protest etc. Lots of people around the world are pissed. Add stagflation this will push people over the edge. The price of things will get higher. Shortages will become common place.
USA: with this war it provides the IS a short term win. It weakens Russia, unites Americas European allies and gives NATO a reason to exist. However this will lead to long term problems. For one the Asia pivot is not gonna happen. The US is unable to divide their attention between Russia and China. They will try though. And as I em too Ed about about global stagflation this will lead to local police actions but the US to
Combat terrorism or at worse getting bogged in a regional war. Take for example Iraq or Lebanon. food prices could push the country into a crisis which leads to regional powers supporting their proxy armies. The US may need to step in to stop war enflaming tensions with Iran. If nuclear talks fail it’s likely gonna lead the Iran problem get worse leading to a standoff between Israel/ Gulf Arab buddies against Iran and their proxies will get worse. The US will get sucked into the Mideast again. Domestically stagflation will not go well with the American people. We have midterm election this fall. The Republican Party is on pace to win the House of Representatives. This will make Biden a lame duck president. Nothing will get done in Washington. He is already very unpopular. Rumor has it he told people back in 2020 that he will be president for one term and be a placeholder for somebody else. Now if the economy still sucks and stagflation gets worse he will be come more unpopular. That will give him the excuse to not run. If Trumps runs for the GOP again he may beat Biden again. In whatever scenario it is Biden or the Dems aren’t gonna win in 2024. Right now the favorite is Trump or the governor of Florida DeSantis. The thing with America right now is that it’s so polarized that ever election after 2016 is now contested and the other side cannot accept losing. So American division will get worse. The US will be stretched thin trying to confront Russia, China. And still having troops in the Mideast to deal with the chaos and confront an Iran close to nuclear power. The Republican Party are very militaristic. They believe the US can confront China,Russia,North Korea,Iran at the same time fighting terrorism around the globe. So I expect more imperial over reach while the domestic economic situation worsens which will further the division of the country.
