Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
How is Russia going to reintegrate Ukraine? If a Pro-Russia government is installed, who’s going to recognize it. The Ukrainian people definitely won’t. China might not either. And there’s going to be on going insurgency that could drag on for years.
But yeah, it's a great question.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
That depends on what you mean by over.
Certainly not Russia's very existence or core national security but more its influence over the few remaining east european countries outside NATO. Which to Russia might be seen as an integral part of the former whether the West, NATO, Ukraine (or anyone else for the matter) sees that as rational or not. However that's just an explanation and not a justification for the war against Ukraine.
But yeah, the rest you wrote is eactly what I think transpired and why the Russian invasion seems so unprepared despite all the very public military build-up bs. That was just an extension of the political pressure by Russia but became something else when that plan didn't (or didn't seem) to work.
Their own national security is a stake, if Ukraine is part of NATO and US decide to put a system like THAAD in Ukraine there is nothing they can do about it. In the same way the Chinese can't do much if the U.S. put THAAD in South Korea except protest and buildup their own arsenal, but still will be a strategic problem for China.
 

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
Well, one effect we can observe now is the appreciation of the yuan. Appreciating strongly vs both usd and euro. Maybe possible to see another 3 trillion growth in usd terms like we saw in 2021?
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, one effect we can observe now is the appreciation of the yuan. Appreciating strongly vs both usd and euro. Maybe possible to see another 3 trillion growth in usd terms like we saw in 2021?
But is that a good or bad thing for the Chinese economy?
 

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
But is that a good or bad thing for the Chinese economy?
No idea, depends on how long the inflation crisis lasts in US and EU. If it improves it may hurt Chinese exports but for now they still have no choice but to eat the appreciation

Edit: I just realised I now have to wait 240 seconds between posts, is it just me or is it forum wide?
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
One consequence of this war is the proposed remilitarization of Germany.

Will Germany's (radically declining) population actually follow through on remilitarization? And if it does, will it integrate its defense industry with France or not? (i.e. The FCAS and MGSC projects). If Germany does integrate with France, it will increase Europe's unity.

But if Germany and France don't carry out these projects, then it's just setting the stage for the return of the German-French rivalry, which has been the old dynamic of Europe.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is kind of funny though, In one of his talks he mentions that his "great power politics" views are generally outdated in Washington, but when he speaks with Chinese political thinkers, they have a greater alignment with his way of thinking. I think his direct quote is "When I'm in China, I'm much more intellectually home there than in Washington".


The sentence starts at 27:17

Just a pragmatic non ideological thinking Chinese are used to. He is an enemy of China no doubt, but he is an honest enemy which I can respect, a million times better then those holier than thou hypocrites
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
One consequence of this war is the proposed remilitarization of Germany.

Will Germany's (radically declining) population actually follow through on remilitarization? And if it does, will it integrate its defense industry with France or not? (i.e. The FCAS and MGSC projects). If Germany does integrate with France, it will increase Europe's unity.

But if Germany and France don't carry out these projects, then it's just setting the stage for the return of the German-French rivalry, which has been the old dynamic of Europe.

Maybe they will integrate according to their comparative advantages, French naval and German land force equipment.

Not sure if this will leads to a more independent Europe or just a stronger US henchman....
 
Top