Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[vesicles]

Lastly, I don’t know a lot about vaccines, but 90% effective seems kinda low to me.

90% effectiveness is remarkably good. Vaccines for common flu typically are about 40-60% effective.

 

[localizer]

I think typically it would be 50-50 placebo to vaccine, so 94 out of 20k got infected. That sounds good until you drill down on the math.

With a claimed 90% success rate, it means that out of the control group, 940 got COVID while only 94 in the vaccinated group got it.

940 infected out of 20k represent a 4.7% infection rate.

That is just me making the maths easy. Most likely they also did regular tests to see how many subjects were exposed to COVID19, which would then be discounted against the percentage. Again, best case, 940 vaccinated subjects were exposed and 94 came down with it while 100% of 940 of the control group who were also exposed came down.

But that’s never going to be the case, you might have 60-70% infection rate on the placebo group who were exposed to the virus, which means potentially half of the vaccinated group would not have been infected even without the vaccine.

And that is assuming perfect probably distribution, which it will never be in real life. That’s the issue, it’s that they concluded their trials with such a small sample of usable data.

The main reason phase 3 double blind trials take so long is because it takes time for enough people to get infected naturally to produce a statically significant sample, and 94 seems an awfully small data set for such an important trial.

Time distribution of the infected vaccinated population would also be critically important. Because if your 94 infected vaccinated population were stacked mainly in later phases of the trial, then that might suggest your immune response is short lived. In which case a sync might argue that they deliberately cut their trial short to avoid failure if their protection rate dropped off a cliff after 3 months.

I think we need experts to take long hard looks of the detailed statistical figures to be able to trust this vaccine.

But the bit that worries me the most is the 10% failure rate. That is huge. You take this vaccine and there is still a 10% you will catch the virus.

This means that we will never be totally rid of COVID and it will become the new seasonal flu.

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I think 94 total got infected out of 44k total in the trial.

Only 8 or so out of the 94 actually got the vaccine. 86 got the placebo. If the vaccine did nothing, we'd expect 47/47 vaccine/placebo in those 94 infected.



The main issue with this study is that the cases are 7 days after the 2nd vaccine dose.

The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose.

We have to see how the vaccine protects months later.

 

[localizer]

I really don't wanna have to go through the COVID lockdown experience every year.




The good thing is that China can reverse engineer this vaccine or at least the protein they used. Just need to decode the mRNA and use another method to deliver the same coded protein.

 

[supercat]

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Stocks shootin up

only person sad is dotard

I think China's Fosun is also a parterre of Pfizer, as well as BioNTech, yet it was not even mentioned in the announcement.

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[localizer]

I think China's Fosun is also a parterre of Pfizer, as well as BioNTech, yet it was not even mentioned in the announcement.

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Who knows, but if they do get the license then that's great.

 

[vesicles]

The good thing is that China can reverse engineer this vaccine or at least the protein they used. Just need to decode the mRNA and use another method to deliver the same coded protein.

Why would China need to reverse engineer this vaccine? They have 3 or 4 vaccines of their own currently in stage 3 clinical trials and about to finish.

 

[B.I.B.]

Reading similar news one might think this is the first COVID-19 vaccine developed ever! The trial is unusually small for a phase III as well - 94 people. Iirc 300-3000 is a typical size block for phase III. Odd.

withdrawn as answer already provided

 

[plawolf]

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I think 94 total got infected out of 44k total in the trial.

Only 8 or so out of the 94 actually got the vaccine. 86 got the placebo. If the vaccine did nothing, we'd expect 47/47 vaccine/placebo in those 94 infected.



The main issue with this study is that the cases are 7 days after the 2nd vaccine dose.

We have to see how the vaccine protects months later.

So the secret to achieving 90% effective rates is to give almost no time for people to get infected. Brilliant.

If they only ran the trials for 7 days after the second shot, then I don’t think these results can be relied upon at all as that’s just way too short a test period.

And to draw conclusions from 94 infected from the whole trial is just farcical. If China published such a study it would be ripped to shreds and shat all over by western media ‘experts’ immediately.

The damage and blowback is going to be colossal if they rushed it to be the first across the line only have a dud vaccine that’s nowhere near 90% effective, which is only discovered when massively high numbers of vaccinated people continue to get sick.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Deleted

 

[AssassinsMace]

Donald Trump Jr. has come charging conspiracy because they didn't release this information on Pfizer's vaccine until after the election so Trump can't take credit but then Pfizer has said they didn't get one dime from the government.