Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[plawolf]

Anyone else think this announcement is sus on multiple levels?

Firstly it feels rushed as hell with a small phase 3 sample, contrast with the tens of thousands being involved in the phase 3 trials of various Chinese vaccines.

Secondly, the timing of the announcement seems interesting. They announced it today, but surely if they wanted to, they could have rushed this news out a week earlier, which would have been a massive boost to Trump’s re-election prospects and potentially could have resulted in a lot of Convid driven anti-Trump voters not bothering to show up.

Lastly, I don’t know a lot about vaccines, but 90% effective seems kinda low to me.

 

[localizer]

Anyone else think this announcement is sus on multiple levels?

Firstly it feels rushed as hell with a small phase 3 sample, contrast with the tens of thousands being involved in the phase 3 trials of various Chinese vaccines.

Secondly, the timing of the announcement seems interesting. They announced it today, but surely if they wanted to, they could have rushed this news out a week earlier, which would have been a massive boost to Trump’s re-election prospects and potentially could have resulted in a lot of Convid driven anti-Trump voters not bothering to show up.

Lastly, I don’t know a lot about vaccines, but 90% effective seems kinda low to me.

they bad like 40k but only 90 ish got infected. Majority of who got placebo.

 

[vesicles]

Honestly, two things, what does Taiwan really bring to the world stage as of now, other then a meat bag that China could snuff out with one DF or EMP to Taipei should Taiwan decide to really anger China for the hundredth time of being told to quit it (and they probably shouldn't rely on the USA for back up since really, when is it the last time they haven't backstabbed an ally hint hint Kurds just recently) and also, did Taiwan help other countries around the world when they are in deep shit like China has done, if not Taiwan can simply shut it and go back to the corner to cry like that stupid HK beggar that is somehow is convinced that he is fighting for democracy while in reality he is busy causing a scene like a raving monkey throwing shit everywhere and basically hitting everyone but the main target.

Taiwan has been successful in COVID-19 because they decided to lock down their island from the beginning. That strategy has gone out the window for most of the countries long long time ago... Besides that, Taiwan has nothing to contribute, unfortunately...

 

[timepass]

 

[plawolf]

they bad like 40k but only 90 ish got infected. Majority of who got placebo.

I think typically it would be 50-50 placebo to vaccine, so 94 out of 20k got infected. That sounds good until you drill down on the math.

With a claimed 90% success rate, it means that out of the control group, 940 got COVID while only 94 in the vaccinated group got it.

940 infected out of 20k represent a 4.7% infection rate.

That is just me making the maths easy. Most likely they also did regular tests to see how many subjects were exposed to COVID19, which would then be discounted against the percentage. Again, best case, 940 vaccinated subjects were exposed and 94 came down with it while 100% of 940 of the control group who were also exposed came down.

But that’s never going to be the case, you might have 60-70% infection rate on the placebo group who were exposed to the virus, which means potentially half of the vaccinated group would not have been infected even without the vaccine.

And that is assuming perfect probably distribution, which it will never be in real life. That’s the issue, it’s that they concluded their trials with such a small sample of usable data.

The main reason phase 3 double blind trials take so long is because it takes time for enough people to get infected naturally to produce a statically significant sample, and 94 seems an awfully small data set for such an important trial.

Time distribution of the infected vaccinated population would also be critically important. Because if your 94 infected vaccinated population were stacked mainly in later phases of the trial, then that might suggest your immune response is short lived. In which case a sync might argue that they deliberately cut their trial short to avoid failure if their protection rate dropped off a cliff after 3 months.

I think we need experts to take long hard looks of the detailed statistical figures to be able to trust this vaccine.

But the bit that worries me the most is the 10% failure rate. That is huge. You take this vaccine and there is still a 10% you will catch the virus.

This means that we will never be totally rid of COVID and it will become the new seasonal flu.

 

[solarz]

But the bit that worries me the most is the 10% failure rate. That is huge. You take this vaccine and there is still a 10% you will catch the virus.

This means that we will never be totally rid of COVID and it will become the new seasonal flu.

To be fair, COVID-19 is more akin to the flu than to say, measles. Compared to the usual flu shot effectiveness rate (~30%), 90% is amazing.

The Spanish Flu was H1N1, which is still with us today, and causing outbreaks from time to time. I think C-19 will end up as something similar.

 

[Quickie]

Someone here once asked about whether the mink farm coronavirus cases in Denmark would reduce the finger-pointing at China. One poster here immediately answered on a negative note. He is right. This doctor is already linking the mink farm to China and Hong Kong although he admittedly said it's a hunch as he hasn't bothered to check. His reasoning went along the line that the people in China are less enlightened than the European!

Apparently, the mink farm coronavirus cases have been going on for quite some time. What took them so long to only try to sequence the virus genome only now?

 

[Intrepid]

Smart people don't look for the culprit, they solve the problem.

 

[emblem21]

Someone here once asked about whether the mink farm coronavirus cases in Denmark would reduce the finger-pointing at China. One poster here immediately answered on a negative note. He is right. This doctor is already linking the mink farm to China and Hong Kong although he admittedly said it's a hunch as he hasn't bothered to check. His reasoning went along the line that the people in China are less enlightened than the European!

Apparently, the mink farm coronavirus cases have been going on for quite some time. What took them so long to only try to sequence the virus genome only now?

The scary part is that if China wanted to take down the USA and Europe at the same time, then a pandemic is all that they need to do damages to all sectors while increasing their reliance’s on China from both entities.the best part is that not only China doesn’t need to do anything but let the western racism and bias to increase the spread for free so that the damages will eventually be impossible to fix and it helps to prevent whatever policies they have to solve there problems. Makes you think that they are doing this intentionally. Maybe you wonder if the west has lost there marbles completely

 

[Intrepid]

Makes you think that they are doing this intentionally.

I don't think China expected the West to perform so badly in a pandemic.

Now that they know, a pandemic naturally becomes a new weapon against the West.