I wrote this post (and will post elsewhere) hoping to rebut the pernicious "accidental lab leak" theory. Hope the logic here can spread.
Debunking the "Accidental Lab Leak" Theory
America has recently began pushing the accidental Wuhan "lab leak" conspiracy theory. Journalists like Josh Rogin are writing scary stories. These reveal shocking facts, such as how the American government said Chinese laboratories were bad. Or how the American government is investigating whether or not Chinese laboratories are bad.
Scary stuff!
America isn't stupid, however. There's a good reason it's pushing the "lab leak" theory: a lot of people will buy into it. It sounds plausible, on the surface. The Wuhan Institute of Virology does study viruses, and the outbreak did start in Wuhan. It would seem reasonable to think there was a connection - that the coronavirus accidentally leaked from a sample collected from bats at the laboratory.
A closer look, however, reveals big holes in the "lab leak" narrative.
1. If there was a lab leak, how come nobody at the laboratory got infected?
Given how easily it spreads, a lab-leaked COVID-19 would cause dozens of cases at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. (In its offices outside the restricted laboratory itself, I wouldn't expect PPE to be worn.)
Instead, the outbreak started at a wildlife market. The Wuhan Institute of Virology remained open and continued valuable research into COVID-19. Few or no scientists got infected.
I don't believe it! China could have lied and covered up the laboratory outbreak!
Thousands work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or have family members who do. Not one complained about getting sick from a lab leak.
It took less than a week for Dr. Li Wenliang to report on coronavirus in the hospitals. Western journalists, such as Chris Buckley, searched every corner of Wuhan looking for a cover-up. Anti-CCP idealists, such as journalist Chen Qiushi, investigated all over Wuhan. Yet not a single whistleblower or reporter bothered to even mention the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
2. A "lab leak" virus wouldn't look like COVID-19.
What would an accidental lab leak look like anyways?
Possibility One: A coronavirus collected from a bat.
I doubt a lab-leaked bat coronavirus would have sustained human-to-human transmission.
COVID-19 has evolved "
."
It's hard to imagine a lab-leaked coronavirus magically obtaining this ability. Bat lungs are not human lungs. Bat viruses evolve to bind rapidly to bat cells, not human cells. That's why there isn't a coronavirus outbreak every time somebody visits a bat cave.
How then, did COVID-19 become able to efficiently bind to human cells? Most likely by first passing through a human-like intermediary (e.g. pangolins). It also could have spread slowly amongst humans for months or years.
(
of Wuhan pangolin research before this crisis.)
Possibility Two: A copy of a previous human disease (e.g. SARS).
If COVID-19 was a copy of a previous human disease, everybody would know. It would be an exact genetic match.
3. Like every big country, China has many laboratories studying disease.
Everybody's heard of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. But what about these scary-sounding laboratories?
Name | Location |
|---|
| Beijing |
| Harbin |
| Kunming |
In 2013
. (America has more than one thousand.) BSL-3 laboratories currently study the coronavirus.
If an epidemic occurred in Beijing, America would suspect a "lab leak" from the scary-sounding National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention laboratory.
If an epidemic occurred in Manchuria, America would suspect a "lab leak" from the scary-sounding Avian Respiratory Diseases Division laboratory.
If an epidemic occurred in any Chinese city, America would suspect a "lab leak" from the city's scary-sounding BSL-3 biosafety laboratories.
Conclusions
Let's take a walk down memory lane, to the beginning of coronavirus.
Mysterious cases of viral pneumonia appear amongst scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Dr. Li Wenliang and brave NYT reporters uncover "new SARS" spreading in China's only virology laboratory. China hurriedly and secretively closes down the laboratory.
Oh wait.
None of that happened.
The outbreak occurred in a wildlife market, not a Wuhan laboratory. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is one of dozens of laboratories studying disease in China. It remained open, with no outbreaks, throughout the entire epidemic.
I hope the Wuhan Institute of Virology continues its strong contribution towards fighting coronavirus.
