I would caution any hasty judgement til more facts are revealed. Many would and should lose their jobs for incompetence and lack of due diligence but we need more facts.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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I would caution any hasty judgement til more facts are revealed. Many would and should lose their jobs for incompetence and lack of due diligence but we need more facts.
I believe he lied about human to human transmission so that people do not pay much attention. This way he can be sure that he is the 1st to publish.
Several papers published recently worth highlighting:
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Analysis of the first 99 case from Jinyintan hospital in Wuhan. They have given out a breakdown of the symptoms those 99 cases initially; fever and cough being the most common, with upper respiratory symptoms such as runny nose and sore throat (things you associate more with a common cold) relatively rare.
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Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
The biggest epidemiological study on nCOV-2019 published so far, with the first 425 cases in Wuhan analyzed. Summary of findings:
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Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine
A submitted manuscript (collaboration between scientists from US, France, HK and China) estimating how likely nCOV-2019 may have already gone to other cities via Wuhan, from threes weeks til the travel ban. They used ground/rail/air travel data, with a R0 of 2.56. They suggested a >50% probability in 131 cities, including 6 cities exceeding 2 millions populations that did not have any confirmed case as of Jan 27th.
What I find very encouraging is the level of international cooperation, and the amount of data/paper coming out so quickly in various journals, is absolutely unprecedented.
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Analysis of the first 99 case from Jinyintan hospital in Wuhan. They have given out a breakdown of the symptoms those 99 cases initially; fever and cough being the most common, with upper respiratory symptoms such as runny nose and sore throat (things you associate more with a common cold) relatively rare.
--------------------------------------
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
The biggest epidemiological study on nCOV-2019 published so far, with the first 425 cases in Wuhan analyzed. Summary of findings:
- Median age is 59 years old, and 56% affected are males
- Not surprisingly, more than half of cases (55%) before Jan 1st were associated with seafood market exposure, as opposed to just 8.6% of the subsequent cases (see the table below)
- Average incubation period (from exposure to start of symptoms) was 5.2 days, with the upper 95% limit at 12.5 days; this data suggests that the 2 weeks period of quarantine in suspected case/exposure is an adequate length of time
- Doubling time of the disease during its early stage (up to Jan 4th) was 7.4 days
- Estimated R0 in this study is 2.2
- Level of health care workers contracting the disease was minimal up to the end of study (3.6%), less than SARS and MERS outbreak (so far). This suggest good infection protection control in place
--------------------------------------
Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine
A submitted manuscript (collaboration between scientists from US, France, HK and China) estimating how likely nCOV-2019 may have already gone to other cities via Wuhan, from threes weeks til the travel ban. They used ground/rail/air travel data, with a R0 of 2.56. They suggested a >50% probability in 131 cities, including 6 cities exceeding 2 millions populations that did not have any confirmed case as of Jan 27th.
What I find very encouraging is the level of international cooperation, and the amount of data/paper coming out so quickly in various journals, is absolutely unprecedented.
vesicles
Colonel
unfortunately, I don’t read Global Times...
Vesicles, you should know by now, this is how he operates. He has a habit of one liners and contradictions. But not willing to contribute meanfully via opinions and discussions.
It really is very hard to have any dialogue with him, it's so hard, it's bordering on waste of time!
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That's unclear. It may very likely be due to incompetence because the vast majority of these things are no cause for alarm. As the head of the CDC, if he lied, putting people's lives at stake to publish, then he deserves to be executed.
I concur. If he, as head of CDC, told the truth, then hundreds or maybe thousands of people maybe don't have to die. This is much more serious than some corrupt 土豪
This is China's CDC response to the accusation.
中国疾病预防控制中心关于在新英格兰医学杂志发表文章的说明
来源：@人民日报
2020-01-31 09:12
2020年1月29日，中国疾病预防控制中心、湖北省疾病预防控制中心等单位有关专业人员共同在新英格兰杂志发表了题为《新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎在中国武汉的初期传播动力学》的论文，有网友提出质疑。现将有关情况说明如下：
一、论文是根据截至2020年1月23日上报的425例确诊病例(包括15名医务人员)所做的回顾性分析，所有病例在论文撰写前已向社会公布。论文中提及的15名医务人员感染病例，分别由国家卫健委高级别专家组组长钟南山院士于1月20日晚、武汉市卫健委于1月21日凌晨向社会公布。
二、论文提出的“2019年12月份即在密切接触者中发生了人际传播”的观点，是基于425例病例流行病学调查资料做出的回顾性推论。
三、论文是由来自中国疾病预防控制中心、湖北省疾病预防控制中心、香港大学等十几个单位的专业人员共同完成。
四、及时在学术刊物发表调查结果，有助于国内外专业同行及时了解疾病的特征，共同评估和研判疫情，改进防控策略。
感谢各位网友的关心和支持，欢迎对我们的工作进行监督。
中国疾病预防控制中心
2020年1月31日
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention's note on publishing in the New England Journal of Medicine
Source: @ 人民日报
2020-01-31 09:12
On January 29, 2020, relevant professionals from the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, etc. jointly published in the New England Journal the title of "Initial Dynamics of New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China". Thesis, some netizens questioned. The relevant situation is explained as follows:
I. The thesis is based on a retrospective analysis of 425 confirmed cases (including 15 medical staff) reported as of January 23, 2020. All cases have been announced to the society before the paper was written. The 15 medical staff infection cases mentioned in the paper were announced to the public by the Academician Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, on the evening of January 20, and the Wuhan Municipal Health and Medical Committee in the early morning of January 21.
2. The viewpoint of "interpersonal transmission among close contacts in December 2019" put forward in the paper is a retrospective inference based on epidemiological survey data of 425 cases.
3. The dissertation was jointly completed by professionals from more than a dozen units including the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the University of Hong Kong.
4. The timely publication of survey results in academic journals will help professional colleagues at home and abroad to understand the characteristics of the disease in a timely manner, jointly evaluate and study the epidemic situation, and improve prevention and control strategies.
Thank you all for your concern and support. Welcome to supervise our work.
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
January 31, 2020
中国疾病预防控制中心关于在新英格兰医学杂志发表文章的说明
来源：@人民日报
2020-01-31 09:12
2020年1月29日，中国疾病预防控制中心、湖北省疾病预防控制中心等单位有关专业人员共同在新英格兰杂志发表了题为《新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎在中国武汉的初期传播动力学》的论文，有网友提出质疑。现将有关情况说明如下：
一、论文是根据截至2020年1月23日上报的425例确诊病例(包括15名医务人员)所做的回顾性分析，所有病例在论文撰写前已向社会公布。论文中提及的15名医务人员感染病例，分别由国家卫健委高级别专家组组长钟南山院士于1月20日晚、武汉市卫健委于1月21日凌晨向社会公布。
二、论文提出的“2019年12月份即在密切接触者中发生了人际传播”的观点，是基于425例病例流行病学调查资料做出的回顾性推论。
三、论文是由来自中国疾病预防控制中心、湖北省疾病预防控制中心、香港大学等十几个单位的专业人员共同完成。
四、及时在学术刊物发表调查结果，有助于国内外专业同行及时了解疾病的特征，共同评估和研判疫情，改进防控策略。
感谢各位网友的关心和支持，欢迎对我们的工作进行监督。
中国疾病预防控制中心
2020年1月31日
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention's note on publishing in the New England Journal of Medicine
Source: @ 人民日报
2020-01-31 09:12
On January 29, 2020, relevant professionals from the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, etc. jointly published in the New England Journal the title of "Initial Dynamics of New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China". Thesis, some netizens questioned. The relevant situation is explained as follows:
I. The thesis is based on a retrospective analysis of 425 confirmed cases (including 15 medical staff) reported as of January 23, 2020. All cases have been announced to the society before the paper was written. The 15 medical staff infection cases mentioned in the paper were announced to the public by the Academician Zhong Nanshan, the leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Medical Commission, on the evening of January 20, and the Wuhan Municipal Health and Medical Committee in the early morning of January 21.
2. The viewpoint of "interpersonal transmission among close contacts in December 2019" put forward in the paper is a retrospective inference based on epidemiological survey data of 425 cases.
3. The dissertation was jointly completed by professionals from more than a dozen units including the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the University of Hong Kong.
4. The timely publication of survey results in academic journals will help professional colleagues at home and abroad to understand the characteristics of the disease in a timely manner, jointly evaluate and study the epidemic situation, and improve prevention and control strategies.
Thank you all for your concern and support. Welcome to supervise our work.
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
January 31, 2020
Guys the ugly head of racism has reared up, there is talk everywhere I have a chance to mingle with the locals on how everyone is put to risk because of the irresponsible Chinese. I am at the Sydney Opera House now and just overheard complains from some of the maintenance staff and restaurant workers talking about why the Australian government did not ban the entry of Chinese tourist altogether. Look I fully understand these comments are made by the lesser educated population who does not realise the ramifications but it is painful to hear these bullshit.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Why's it painful? Your expectations of them are too high. I have none; I expect no compassion, understanding, or friendship from them, and I offer them none either.
I welcome these incidents as reminders for Asians living in America, Australia, Canada, etc... that they are not meant to integrate into that society as a minority; they are meant to go home with the skills they've learned to build their own countries.
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