Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[mahakala]

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I find this very interesting, and perhaps our resident health science experts can help shed some light. Why does the 2019-nCoV seem to affect children less seriously than older adults? It is my understanding that children, along with the elderly, are usually the more vulnerable age groups to flu.

As the nCOV-2019 is still very new, it is probably too early to make any epidemiological speculations. Taking an educated guess with its near cousin SARS, which exhibits very similar genetic sequence and both using ACE2 as the cell receptor, I would quote this passage from the paper below:

The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients.

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In addition, the risk for acquiring infection varied significantly by age, with relatively few cases of infection and no deaths in children and adolescents. The reasons for this are unclear. One hypothesis relating to mild or asymptomatic infection in young patients has not been borne out by detailed serologic testing of case contacts (25). Alternative hypotheses, including one that suggests that more recent infections in young patients with other coronaviruses confer some degree of protection to SARS coronavirus due to antigenic cross-reactivity, have not as yet been tested. Current prevailing theories focus on an attenuated immunopathologic response in children because of a more immature immune system (26). However, the exact mechanism that leads to SARS coronavirus–induced immunomodulation remains to be elucidated (27).

Graph of age distribution and SARS cases

 

[localizer]

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We all know they it when colored folks suffer.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Yes, some people do it the right way, and others do it the wrong way. Do we stick to the right way, or should we start doing the wrong things just because someone else does the wrong things too?

My interpretation of your above post is that you disagree with my suggestion not to use Wuhan? Am I right? Clearly, the official name of the virus (not given by the Chinese, but given by the international health care authorities) does not include Wuhan. I suggest that we should stick to the official name. I don't understand why you find that inappropriate...

Quite good advertisement opportunity for Wuhan .

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yes, some people do it the right way, and others do it the wrong way. Do we stick to the right way, or should we start doing the wrong things just because someone else does the wrong things too?

My interpretation of your above post is that you disagree with my suggestion not to use Wuhan? Am I right? Clearly, the official name of the virus (not given by the Chinese, but given by the international health care authorities) does not include Wuhan. I suggest that we should stick to the official name. I don't understand why you find that inappropriate...

35 minutes ago
I meant to say you might want to tell Glob. Times with hundreds of thousand readers, not a thread with tens of readers
:
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
localizer, Jan 18, 2020 , Members' Club Room ... 39 40 41

Replies:
403
Views:
14,128

 

[Brumby]

A couple of updates on what is crossing the wires.

'We'll admit them if they're dying': Virus outbreak pushes China's stretched health care workers to breaking point

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Deadly coronavirus takes just 15 minutes to spread from person to person

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[manqiangrexue]

I was wondering about those two tidbits:

1. in December they knew about the danger Yesterday at 9:25 PM
   
   but
   
2. in mid-January they organized some massive eating event (if that's what's happened) Yesterday at 8:12 AM

can anyone explain this to me please

Unfortunately, I can. The virus was first discovered in China in November 2019. With the plethora of viral strains seen every year, there was no alarm, but each one is evaluated just in case. The head of China's CDC, Dr. Fu Gao, an expert on virology, made a mistake. He took the virus sample from Wuhan away from the scientists there because he wanted to publish its characterization. He spoke rashly and declared without evidence that according to his expertise, this virus cannot transmit from man-to-man. Because of his false assurance, no further investigation was taken against the virus from a public heath standpoint and he published it in a paper for himself. (This is, however, not to say that the virus surely would have been stopped had he been more vigilant, as such a virus with long incubation period capable of viral shedding in the absence of symptoms is incredibly difficult to stem early on.) He failed to recognize his first and foremost responsibility as the head of the CDC, which is to protect the public, but instead focused on publications in his own name. Now he's in deep deep shit.

PS. Why did you quote me when addressing a question to everyone (anyone)? Do not quote me when not specifically talking to me and do not quote me unless you are continuing off of my point.

 

[localizer]

Unfortunately, I can. The virus was first discovered in China in November 2019. With the plethora of viral strains seen every year, there was no alarm, but each one is evaluated just in case. The head of China's CDC, Dr. Fu Gao, an expert on virology, made a mistake. He took the virus sample from Wuhan away from the scientists there because he wanted to publish its characterization. He spoke rashly and declared without evidence that according to his expertise, this virus cannot transmit from man-to-man. Because of his false assurance, no further investigation was taken against the virus from a public heath standpoint and he published it in a paper for himself. (This is, however, not to say that the virus surely would have been stopped had he been more vigilant, as such a virus with long incubation period capable of viral shedding in the absence of symptoms is incredibly difficult to stem early on.) He failed to recognize his first and foremost responsibility as the head of the CDC, which is to protect the public, but instead focused on publications in his own name. Now he's in deep deep shit.

PS. Why did you quote me when addressing a question to everyone (anyone)? Do not quote me when not specifically talking to me and do not quote me unless you are continuing off of my point.

Gao must be punished for this behavior. Putting himself above China.

 

[adiru]

Gao must be punished for this behavior. Putting himself above China.

Any likelyhood he had ties to USA? You can bet bottom dollar if the situation was reversed he would be infestigated by US government for any ties to China or Chinese influence etc etc etc.

 

[KYli]

Unfortunately, I can. The virus was first discovered in China in November 2019. With the plethora of viral strains seen every year, there was no alarm, but each one is evaluated just in case. The head of China's CDC, Dr. Fu Gao, an expert on virology, made a mistake. He took the virus sample from Wuhan away from the scientists there because he wanted to publish its characterization. He spoke rashly and declared without evidence that according to his expertise, this virus cannot transmit from man-to-man. Because of his false assurance, no further investigation was taken against the virus from a public heath standpoint and he published it in a paper for himself. (This is, however, not to say that the virus surely would have been stopped had he been more vigilant, as such a virus with long incubation period capable of viral shedding in the absence of symptoms is incredibly difficult to stem early on.) He failed to recognize his first and foremost responsibility as the head of the CDC, which is to protect the public, but instead focused on publications in his own name. Now he's in deep deep shit.

PS. Why did you quote me when addressing a question to everyone (anyone)? Do not quote me when not specifically talking to me and do not quote me unless you are continuing off of my point.

Not going to entertain the blame game yet as too many rumors floating around that it is difficult to make a rational judgement. I do want to point out that in his publication, CDC only has started to backtrace in the late Dec and the earliest cases that CDC had found is on Dec 8. It is quite clear from the graph that doctors have only started to notice the connection of a new virus til Dec 19-23 when multiple cases were discovered.

 

[supercat]

Yesterday:

Newest situation in China:

1/29/2020: total confirmed 7711, total severe case 1370, total death 170, total cured 124, total suspected case 12167

1/29/2020: new confirmed case 1737, new severe case 131, new death 38, newly cured 21, new suspected case 4148
1/28/2020: new confirmed case 1459, new severe case 263, new death 26, newly cured 43, new suspected case 3248
1/27/2020: new confirmed case 1771, new severe case 515, new death 26, newly cured 9, new suspected case 2077

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(you can try google full-page translation)

Today:

1/30/2020: total confirmed 9692, total death 213

1/30/2020: new confirmed case: 1981, new death 43

Comment: good news - the infection rate was relatively constant instead of increasing, and the infection spread linearly instead of exponentially over the past 4 days.