Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

KYli

Brigadier
It is all a question of the real figure. Suppose Covid-19 kills 1% of those infected. Assume 11 days pass from the positive test to death. Then we have to compare the current number of deaths with the number of infected people 11 days ago. In Germany this is 4%. That said, Germany actually has four times more infected people than were tested.

Italy has twenty times more infected people than have been tested.

UK has forty times more infected people than have been tested.

In the United States, the number was 50 times a week ago. Now it levels off at fifteen to twenty times because testing is now much more intensive.

The problem is you don't know if the statistics from these countries are measure in the same method. I have heard that German doesn't include some of the deaths from other complications even if the patients have contracted the covid-19. There are just so many variables that we simply can't rely upon these data. One thing we can rely upon is how many people got tested and how many of them came back positives. If the sample size is large enough, we would probably know when they reach covid-19 apex.
 

supercat

Major
Some “liberal” media are simply allowed in China, though I feel most of them are inevitably contaminated with the bias from western MSM.

Caixin weekly's recent cover has been causing controversy too:

View attachment 58867

Which was edited from
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stock photo, protraying the "China virus":

View attachment 58868

The urn picture probably also originated from Caixin, and seized on by people with ulterior motivations, such those from Falun Gong and Radio Free Asia, very quickly. Notice that 5,000 urns is just about one month's stockpile for a big city like Wuhan in normal times with a normal death rate, and those urns may be distributed to other locations later, not necessarily all used by this crematory alone.

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On April 1, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, there are 35 new cases and 20 suspected cases, all imported (chart 1). There are 55 new asymptomatic cases (chart 2). Existing cases dropped below 2,000 to 1,863. There are 76,408 cured cases (chart 4). Cases in Hong Kong and Macau continue to rise (chart 5).

Chart 1:
1585861239989.jpeg

Chart 2:
1585861253954.jpeg

Chart 3:
1585861269121.jpeg

Chart 4:
1585861282964.jpeg

Chart 5:
1585861298841.jpeg

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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
It is all a question of the real figure. Suppose Covid-19 kills 1% of those infected. Assume 11 days pass from the positive test to death. Then we have to compare the current number of deaths with the number of infected people 11 days ago. In Germany this is 4%. That said, Germany actually has four times more infected people than were tested.

Italy has twenty times more infected people than have been tested.

UK has forty times more infected people than have been tested.

In the United States, the number was 50 times a week ago. Now it levels off at fifteen to twenty times because testing is now much more intensive.


So far I estimate 0,05% to 1% death rate for developed country with no overloaded medical system.

When it goes above 1% you know it's been overloaded.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Robert Kraft has a lot of "Chinese Friends", if you know the (other) story, lol.
Jokes aside, the story says he paid for half of the cost of the masks personally ($2 million for 1.2m masks), so that works out to be about $3.33 per mask. Pretty good price, must have other Chinese connections besides the ones at the spa.

In another article he was quoted as saying he had never encountered so much red tape before. Normally all these regulations are put in place to protect people, but think about how someone even with this many resources (a company wide-body jet!), can't easily overcome it.

Couple more stories on Marbury (If you can't tell, I am a sports fan)
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I like these "man on the ground" kind of stories because they are usually non-political. From the above, It would seem his $2.75/mask is probably legit.

Marbury on masks: (similar to the argument here)

There is no doubt that Robert Kraft is using this as an opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of the American public. Richard Liu of JD did something similar and won the praise of Zhong Nanshan himself — no doubt a great publicity boon for JD.
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Using thermometer as visible tool to fight C19 is a joke.
Like using techniques that won war against trench warfare of 1916-1918
and using those techniques and trench warfare against DF26s , type 99 tanks, Type PCL191

Thinking and hoping that will work against C19.
And discarding a key weapon , aka wearing masks, any masks that is properly worn and used .
Yesterday I was rosted to work, before starting work, all staff must go through the officer who would ask many questions before a temperature reading is taken. Many staff are casual workers and due to little works and very little incomes, have the incentive to lie inorder to work. But they can not hide a fever, so a temperature check is mandatory. Temperature checking by itself is not fool proof but is part of a series of safety measures to improve a biosecurity enviroment.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Remember the 21 million supposedly dead chinese because they cancel their cell phone subscription? Well here is a logical explanation
China's three major cellphone carriers reported a loss of nearly 21 million subscribers in January and February. Some say the lost users are people who have died from COVID-19. It is obviously a far cry from reality, but let's debunk it anyways.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
@supercat

Thirty-one provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 60 new cases of asymptomatic infections, including 7 cases of asymptomatic infections imported overseas

Very interesting

Going by the rate of turnover of cases, it seems that there were likely >100 asymptomatic cases a day discovered.
Does this combine those that are both recovered and actively infected?
 
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