Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[solarz]

For the past 20 years, researchers in the US have been warning about a how their healthcare system was unprepared for a pandemic (not enough hospital beds and ventilators). But CNN/FOX/MSNBC are not talking about this, because excess capacity (a fundamental requirement of disaster planning) goes against capitalistic principles, and MSM functions on capitalistic principles. Instead of informing people about systemic issues, FOX is attacking China, MSNBC is attacking both Trump and Sanders, and CNN is talking like this virus (which China has already handled) is basically the apocalypse.

No amount of excess capacity can handle an exponentially growing infection.

The only way a nation can handle an epidemic is through aggressive isolation, and the earlier implemented, the easier the outbreak can be contained.

The biggest mistake the US made was not taking COVID-19 seriously in the beginning.

 

[plawolf]

Ironically, I think the high number of intensive care beds in the US probably contributed significantly to the early underestimation of COVID19 by US leaders and the public as a whole.

As I mentioned before, I think that if there are adequate medical resources available, COVID19 has a very low mortality rate of 0.1% when looking at data from China excluding Wuhan.

As such, in my view, in the earliest stages of an outbreak, you will see very low mortality rates up to the point where your existing intensive care capacity is exceeded. After which point mortality rates shoots through the roof as healthcare services are overwhelmed and many many patients who would have lived with proper treatment dies needlessly because there simply aren’t the resources to threat them in time.

Western nations, with their much higher per-capita healthcare spending, had a much bigger cushion than developing nations and even against China. That means when they were first assessing the dangers of the outbreak, they were seeing very low mortality rates when everyone who needs intensive care treatment was getting it, so vastly underestimated the threat.

It’s only after healthcare services were overwhelming in Italy, and the dead literally started to pile up that Europe started to take the outbreak seriously, but by that time it was already too late for containment, so they had to move to full lockdown, but even that wasn’t enough.

It took even longer for the US to reach the same tipping point.

Arrogance and exceptionalism played their part as well, but I think it would be wrong to dismiss the likelihood that western leaders were effectively mislead by the earliest mortality rate figures if those figures were not presented with the massive caveat that the mortality would not stay so long during a full scale outbreak.

 

[Mohsin77]

No amount of excess capacity can handle an exponentially growing infection.

In 2009, the H1N1 'swine flu' epidemic also

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in its initial phase. So simply citing an exponential rate (as I have said multiple times) is an oversimplification of a very complex problem. And keep in mind that Swine Flu infected a billion and a half people around the world, and killed half a million people by some estimates.

Here's a

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which compares the responses of both pandemics. 2009 should have been the "wake up call," and instead, the response systems have actually deteriorated since 2009: "A major difference in response is that we were better prepared for a pandemic (at least in the U.S.) years ago."

 

[0Fox0]

The Chinese government responds to American recent reports based on "classified anonymous sources". I think it helps to get both sides of the story and let people make up their own minds. I hope mods will respect free speech as we're all trying to find the truth.

CIA is US govt’s pawn to fabricate lies about China

Photo: IC and AFP
Bloomberg published an article on Wednesday saying that the US intelligence community concluded in a "classified report" to the White House that China has "concealed" the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak, "under-reporting" the confirmed cases and deaths of the virus. Two US officials who asked not to be identified said the report concludes that "China's numbers are fake."

The US has failed to whitewash its incompetence in fighting the epidemic on its home soil, so the US intelligence agencies are dispatched to do the dirty jobs. They have been forging and disseminating false information just to save face. They have no reputation at all. The CIA is completely a shame of intelligence.

Do US intelligence agencies have enough evidence to prove more people have died from COVID-19 in China? It seems that for the intelligence agency of the most developed country, lying and smearing are the only things that the CIA is capable of. It first released a so-called classified report and then refused to disclose more information, saying it's "confidential." This is political hooliganism.

The CIA, the so-called professional intelligence agency of the US, has many scandals. It is accustomed to forgery, monitoring and lying. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo once said: "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole…We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." That was one of the few times when he was telling the truth.

The timing of the release of Bloomberg's report is noteworthy. Both the number of confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 are rising rapidly every day worldwide, including the US. Over 210,000 confirmed cases have been reported in the US as of press time. On Tuesday, the number of COVID-19 deaths of the US surpassed that of China. Precisely on the second day, many Western media started to question whether China's data was trustworthy. Now, US intelligence agencies have come out to further blacken China. Isn't their intention much too obvious?

Relevant note:

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All of these explain one fact: US politicians cannot accept that China has had a better control of the COVID-19 epidemic than the US does. After seeing that the US' death toll of the virus has surpassed that of China, their last psychological defense has collapsed.

According to Bloomberg, in addition to China, Western officials also pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, saying that these countries may also be "playing down their numbers" as well. None of these countries is a typical "Western country," and thus have been regarded as "exotic" countries. The US believes that ideology is much more important than the reality and fact. We can imagine that no matter how many deaths China reported, US intelligence agencies will not accept the data, unless the number meets the standards they have had in their mind.

Thus, the CIA is not a so-called independent agency of the US federal government at all. It only acts as a pawn of the US government, chasing and attacking those it regards as rivals, with its eyes blinded by an ideological frenzy.

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[shanlung]

Watch and listen to the end.
From a 7 year old girl
Politicans be ashamed!

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=507388436576261

I was told off and insulted by AndrewS in email to me for posting that video of a 7 year old girl.
That he judged I besmirched my reputation for doing that.
Needless to say, he got into my ignore list as do I need to see anymore of him as he obviously thoughtso much of himself and thought so little of her because she only a 7 year old. Mods can check what he wrote to me, and if that be a cause of banning him outright.

With a bit of trepidation, I am posting the latest news, this time of a 7 week old.

That not only old foggies like me in danger.
That even the very young can die from covid19

Covid 19 not only can snatch old folks with hypertension and diabetic about to go to grave, covid 19 can snatch young not even out of the cradle. And therefore all in between the cradle and the grave are at risk.

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[0Fox0]

Asian Americans please be warned that you need to get armed and stay away from the public as much as possible. Try to move in groups if possible. Keep the elders at home and let the young and strong run errands. The American leaders have racialized the coronavirus and scapegoated the Chinese community. However, ALL Asians are in danger as racists do not care what your nationality is - only that you look "Chinese" enough.

This is happening in NY now, but the problem will spread eventually to more areas if it hasn't already.

5,600 Uniformed NYPD Workers Now on Sick Leave

The New York Police Department is down about 15% of its uniformed officers amid the global coronavirus pandemic that has ravaged the city and state, according to NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea.
That means more than 5,600 workers are on sick leave in the NYPD, which is roughly five times the normal number, Shea told a Facebook Live Q&A, Newsweek reported Tuesday.

"We're also going to make sure that you're symptom free for seven days from the beginning of when the symptoms took place, that's the basic rule every time we bring somebody back," Shea said. "We have had 17 people, just now since Friday, come back to work, that have tested positive for COVID-19, and they're back, they're better and they're jumping in to fill the place while others go down."

New York state has almost 76,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases to date. That figure is almost four times the next highest state in the U.S. – New Jersey, with almost 20,000 and obviously connected to NYC, and more than all but three other countries in the world.

Four NYPD employees have died from the coronavirus in the past few days, per the report.
The NYPD "sick desk" was forced to add phone lines to handle the increase in call-outs, Newsweek reported.
"We normally have X amount, let's say, of people calling into our sick desk in a day, we're now at 5 times that, that are out sick," Shea said.

"Thousands and thousands and thousands of calls into our sick desk [Monday]. What was happening was people weren't even able to get through, the lines couldn't hold it," he added. "In a span of two or three days our Information Technology Bureau, working with health services . . . basically added 10 to 15 new lines, just to minimize the wait times there."

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[vesicles]

I know they have a lot of false negative tests. But I don't think it is possible to have false positive tests.

The only way to have false positive is contamination during the sample collecting process.

Any test can have false positive and false negative results. Any of the testing reagents can non-specifically interact with some stuff in your body and give a false positive results. To be sure, we have all kinds of viruses living in our bodies at any moment. Some of them might interact with the test reagents and give you a false positive result.

Of course, as you mentioned, contamination can also give you a false positive, but it's not the only reason.

 

[OppositeDay]

I would think asymptomatic and "pre-symptomatic" are pretty much the same thing.

Not a medical professional but my understanding is that asymptomatic describes infected people who never develop any symptoms, whereas pre-symptomatic means a person has yet to develop symptoms but might in the future.

So you cannot tell if a person is asymptomatic until the infection is cleared, whereas all infected people who are not cleared of infection but have not yet developed symptoms are considered pre-symtomatic. Since according to the Chinese numbers, 无症状感染者 sometimes turn into confirmed cases (which requires symptoms/clinical characterisitics according to the Chinese case definition), these people are not asymptomatic but pre-symptomatic.

@vesicles Can you correct me if I'm wrong?

 

[vesicles]

Asian Americans please be warned that you need to get armed and stay away from the public as much as possible.

Spending more time indoors is an excellent idea, especially we should practice social distancing anyways. However, for those of you thinking about getting your first firearms, please please be careful. I'm begging you to be extra careful! In the US, approximately 90% of gun-related casualties have been caused by accidents and improper handling of firearms at home. People think it's easy to handle a gun. "you just pull the trigger!" YES, it is just as easy for you to accidentally shoot your family members or neighbors! There is a saying about guns: the moment you don't respect it, it kills you. We have been watching so many action movies with movie stars treating guns like toys. And movie goers get the same idea. Please be careful when you handle a piece of firearm.

A gun is a unique invention of the human kind. Unlike any other equipment invented by us, a gun has only one purpose: it kills people and does nothing else. You can use a knife to cut vegetables, or to open a beer bottle, or to open a sealed box. You can't use a gun to do anything else other than to kill another fellow human being. It is very dangerous. Especially when you have little kids and they WILL play your gun like a toy and pull that damn trigger every chance they get. And if that gun is hot, you are in deep deep trouble. And even the most experienced gun handlers make mistakes and, by accident, leave their firearms mistakenly loaded and forget all about it. I myself have had numerous occasions when I am 120% sure my guns are not loaded, but end up finding a bullet in the chamber when I check...

Just a few days ago, I went to my usual gun range to get some defense ammo. I saw an unusually large crowd, many of them first time gun buyers. I can tell from the way they handle the guns in their hands. I was first standing by the counter when a sales person placed a pistol on the counter for a customer standing next to me. That guy immediately grabbed the gun and had his index finger wrapped around the trigger. Then he bounced the gun in his hand, I guess, trying to get a feel of the gun. While doing so, he basically pointed the gun at all the sales personnel standing behind the counter. The sales guy stepped back and politely asked the customer to place the gun on the counter gently. At that moment, the hair on the back my neck all stood up. I turned around the left the shop immediately. Not because of the potential risk of getting infected, but because of the big risk of getting shot at by one of the first time buyers. I went back to the shop at a later time and had a chat with the shop owner. He said that he's had customers fake-shooting him several times that day. And his employees are a little nervous about having guns pointed at their chests all day... Just imagine the nightmare... a customer goes back home with his new gun and accidentally pulls the trigger and finds out the gun is loaded...

Be very careful! A piece of firearm is NOT a toy. It has one purpose and one purpose only. It KILLS. remember the 4 rules of safely handling a gun and drill them into your heart. Follow them religiously! These rules are not suggestions, not guidelines, but things you do to save the lives of you and your loved ones.

 

[PiSigma]

Spending more time indoors is an excellent idea, especially we should practice social distancing anyways. However, for those of you thinking about getting your first firearms, please please be careful. I'm begging you to be extra careful! In the US, approximately 90% of gun-related casualties have been caused by accidents and improper handling of firearms at home. People think it's easy to handle a gun. "you just pull the trigger!" YES, it is just as easy for you to accidentally shoot your family members or neighbors! There is a saying about guns: the moment you don't respect it, it kills you. We have been watching so many action movies with movie stars treating guns like toys. And movie goers get the same idea. Please be careful when you handle a piece of firearm.

A gun is a unique invention of the human kind. Unlike any other equipment invented by us, a gun has only one purpose: it kills people and does nothing else. You can use a knife to cut vegetables, or to open a beer bottle, or to open a sealed box. You can't use a gun to do anything else other than to kill another fellow human being. It is very dangerous. Especially when you have little kids and they WILL play your gun like a toy and pull that damn trigger every chance they get. And if that gun is hot, you are in deep deep trouble. And even the most experienced gun handlers make mistakes and, by accident, leave their firearms mistakenly loaded and forget all about it. I myself have had numerous occasions when I am 120% sure my guns are not loaded, but end up finding a bullet in the chamber when I check...

Just a few days ago, I went to my usual gun range to get some defense ammo. I saw an unusually large crowd, many of them first time gun buyers. I can tell from the way they handle the guns in their hands. I was first standing by the counter when a sales person placed a pistol on the counter for a customer standing next to me. That guy immediately grabbed the gun and had his index finger wrapped around the trigger. Then he bounced the gun in his hand, I guess, trying to get a feel of the gun. While doing so, he basically pointed the gun at all the sales personnel standing behind the counter. The sales guy stepped back and politely asked the customer to place the gun on the counter gently. At that moment, the hair on the back my neck all stood up. I turned around the left the shop immediately. Not because of the potential risk of getting infected, but because of the big risk of getting shot at by one of the first time buyers. I went back to the shop at a later time and had a chat with the shop owner. He said that he's had customers fake-shooting him several times that day. And his employees are a little nervous about having guns pointed at their chests all day... Just imagine the nightmare... a customer goes back home with his new gun and accidentally pulls the trigger and finds out the gun is loaded...

Be very careful! A piece of firearm is NOT a toy. It has one purpose and one purpose only. It KILLS. remember the 4 rules of safely handling a gun and drill them into your heart. Follow them religiously! These rules are not suggestions, not guidelines, but things you do to save the lives of you and your loved ones.

Did you just say there are first time gun buyers in Texas?? What has the world come to!

I remember seeing "leave your firearm in your truck" stickers on store doors in Houston years back.