Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
@supercat maybe good to add this to ur chart.
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Here you can see the number of tests per day and hospitalized in the US.



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Luckily US has plenty of hospital beds:
These hospitals have 534,964 staffed (operational) acute care beds, including 96,596 ICU beds (Table 1), accounting for a median 16.7% of all hospital beds. The ICU beds can be categorized as adult, pediatric, or neonatal. There are 68,558 adult beds (medical-surgical 46,795, cardiac 14,445, and other ICU 7318), 5137 pediatric ICU beds, and 22,901 neonatal ICU beds. Additionally, there are 25,157 step-down beds, and 1183 burn beds.

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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
@supercat

How to interpret this?

"1367 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation, which is 174 less than the previous day. "

Do they have total asymptomatic infections somewhere?

I don't think they have ever released the total number of asymptomatic infections. However, China has always stated clearly that its numbers are the total numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and has never claimed its numbers to be the total numbers of confirmed SARS-COV-2 infections. If someone with SARS-COV-2 infection never developes any symptoms (i.e. , is truly asymptomatic, rather than pre-symptomatic) then I don't think that person ever has had the disease COVID-19. The virus causes the illness but not everyone has the virus is ill. Remember the bats?
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't think they have ever released the total number of asymptomatic infections. However, China has always stated clearly that its numbers are the total numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and has never claimed its numbers to be the total numbers of confirmed SARS-COV-2 infections. If someone with SARS-COVID infection never developes any symptoms (i.e. , is truly asymptomatic, rather than pre-symptomatic) then I don't think that person ever has had the disease COVID-19. The virus causes the illness but not everyone has the virus is ill. Remember the bats?


No it's all the same. If you test positive for the virus then 99.9% you're infected and should be counted as a case.

I remember somewhere saying roughly another 40k of cases are asymptomatic.

Technically China's official COVID mortality rate should be ~ 3.3k/120k or ~2%.
 
Any of our scientist posters familiar with this development?
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WORLD NEWSAPRIL 1, 2020 / 5:06 AM / UPDATED 12 HOURS AGO
Martin Quin Pollard
4 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - A team of Chinese scientists has isolated several antibodies that it says are “extremely effective” at blocking the ability of the new coronavirus to enter cells, which eventually could be helpful in treating or preventing COVID-19.

There is currently no proven effective treatment for the disease, which originated in China and is spreading across the world in a pandemic that has infected more than 850,000 and killed 42,000.

Zhang Linqi at Tsinghua University in Beijing said a drug made with antibodies like the ones his team have found could be used more effectively than the current approaches, including what he called “borderline” treatment such as plasma.

Plasma contains antibodies but is restricted by blood type.

In early January, Zhang’s team and a group at the 3rd People’s Hospital in Shenzhen began analysing antibodies from blood taken from recovered COVID-19 patients, isolating 206 monoclonal antibodies which showed what he described as a “strong” ability to bind with the virus’ proteins.

They then conducted another test to see if they could actually prevent the virus from entering cells, he told Reuters in an interview.

A scientist works in the lab of Linqi Zhang on research into novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) antibodies for possible use in a drug at Tsinghua University's Research Center for Public Health in Beijing, China, March 30, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Among the first 20 or so antibodies tested, four were able to block viral entry and of those, two were “exceedingly good” at doing so, Zhang said.

The team is now focused on identifying the most powerful antibodies and possibly combining them to mitigate the risk of the new coronavirus mutating.

If all goes well, interested developers could mass produce them for testing, first on animals and eventually on humans.

The group has partnered with a Sino-U.S. biotech firm, Brii Biosciences, in an effort “to advance multiple candidates for prophylactic and therapeutic intervention”, according to a statement by Brii.

“The importance of antibodies has been proven in the world of medicine for decades now,” Zhang said. “They can be used to treat cancer, autoimmune diseases and infectious diseases.”

The antibodies are not a vaccine but could potentially be given to at-risk people with the aim of preventing them from contracting COVID-19.

Normally it takes around two years for a drug even to get close to approval for use on patients, but the COVID-19 pandemic means things are moving faster, he said, with steps that would previously be taken sequentially now being done in parallel.

Zhang, who posted the findings online, hopes the antibodies can be tested on humans in six months. If they are found to be effective in trials, actual use for treatment would take longer.

Other experts urge caution.

“There’s a number of steps which will now need to be followed before it could be used as a treatment for coronavirus patients,” Hong Kong University infectious disease specialist Ben Cowling said when the finding was described to him by Reuters.

“But it’s really exciting to find these potential treatments, and then have a chance to test them out. Because if we can find more candidates, then eventually we’ll have better treatment,” Cowling said.

Additional reporting by Roxanne Liu; Editing by Kim Coghill; Editing by Tony Munroe, Kate Kelland and Kim Coghill
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
My one reply to all the China blaming is this: the first person died from COVID-19 (a brand new disease) on Jan 11 and China lock down Wuhan on Jan 24 and the rest of the country soon after, even not much known about the virus at the time. Now, compare to other countries who knew much much more about the virus and the devastation it can bring, how long did those government took the first measures of social distancing?

hindsight in 20/20. It is easy to say China should lock down sooner. With the virus raging in other countries, we can now see how hard a choice it was to stop all economic activities
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
No it's all the same. If you test positive for the virus then 99.9% you're infected and should be counted as a case.

I remember somewhere saying roughly another 40k of cases are asymptomatic.

Technically China's official COVID mortality rate should be ~ 3.3k/120k or ~2%.

There is a difference between being infected by a virus and having a disease caused by the virus. A bat can carry a number of coronaviruses without them doing any harm to the bat. In that case the bat is not a case of any disease related to the viruses. Similarly, if an infected person is truly asymptomatic, which means her health is never noticably harmed by the virus, then she doesn't have any disease related to the virus infection. Cases usually refer to cases of disease, not cases of infection. Remember the CFR (case fatality rate) and IFR (infection fatality rate) distinction? the first has to do with the disease and second to do with the virus infection.
 

KYli

Brigadier
钟南山判断国内不会有第二波疫情暴发

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4月1日,接受采访时,钟南山表示无症状感染者不会引起大暴发。他表示,因为我们有强有力的监测系统,一旦发现(无症状感染者)立即隔离,同时对相关接触者也立即隔离观察,第一时间切断传播链的话,不会出现像第一波那样的疫情暴发。

In an interview on April 1, Zhong Nanshan said that asymptomatic infection would not cause a major outbreak. He said that because we have a strong monitoring system, once we find (asymptomatic infected people) immediately isolate them, and at the same time, immediately isolate and observe the relevant contacts. If the transmission chain is cut off for the first time, nothing like the first wave Outbreak would happen.
 

supercat

Major
I think we need to give Trump some credit when it is due. In today's White House COVID-19 briefing, more than one journalist tried to lead him to say that China covered up. To his credit, he said he didn't know. I think that's a honest answer.

Today China is again late in publishing their data. I will post those tomorrow.

The Chinese term "无症状感染者“ actually includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases.

I would think asymptomatic and "pre-symptomatic" are pretty much the same thing.

@supercat

How to interpret this?

"1367 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation, which is 174 less than the previous day. "

Do they have total asymptomatic infections somewhere?

I think the total asymptomatic cases is 1367 as of Mar. 31.


China is by far the largest test kits manufacturer for COVID-19.

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Situation in the New York metro area on April 1 at 5:00 pm EDT:

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Situation in the U.S. on April 1 at 8:00 pm EDT:

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Projected deaths in the U.S.

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