Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[adiru]

Me personally all else being equal I am pro-China and pro-Xi. I am aware that being of Han Chinese DNA I may be baised towards being in favor of China, but even through an independant lens if I were totally objective I would still say that a strong China is needed if for nothing else than as a credible deterrence and meaningful counterbalance and to provide the rest of the world an alternative platform. This is good for humanity as a whole long term.

Having that said, and without diving into speculation, I think at least one reason China locked down so quickly and on such unprecedenty scale is they didnt know what they were dealing with, the unknown unknowns. Sure they genomed the virus within 10 days, but was this the only virus out there? Was there a second, stronger, deadlier, more devious and vicious virus outbreak that was developing in parallel and merely masked by the first decoy virus? A lockdown would be impossible to impose or enforce once the entire country is already in meltdown and C&C is lost. We already see Western media taking advantage of the situation, if the worst case befell on China who really thinks certain Western hegemonies wouldn't politicially, economically, and militaristically leverage China's misfortune as well?

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Me personally all else being equal I am pro-China and pro-Xi. I am aware that being of Han Chinese DNA I may be baised towards being in favor of China, but even through an independant lens if I were totally objective I would still say that a strong China is needed if for nothing else than as a credible deterrence and meaningful counterbalance and to provide the rest of the world an alternative platform. This is good for humanity as a whole long term.

Having that said, and without diving into speculation, I think at least one reason China locked down so quickly and on such unprecedenty scale is they didnt know what they were dealing with, the unknown unknowns. Sure they genomed the virus within 10 days, but was this the only virus out there? Was there a second, stronger, deadlier, more devious and vicious virus outbreak that was developing in parallel and merely masked by the first decoy virus? A lockdown would be impossible to impose or enforce once the entire country is already in meltdown and C&C is lost. We already see Western media taking advantage of the situation, if the worst case befell on China who really thinks certain Western hegemonies wouldn't politicially, economically, and militaristically leverage China's misfortune as well?

With every infection that is lethal you are potentially dealing with something that is new. This is especially true with flu viruses which are spread out over such a large animal groups that the potential for it to mutate is endless.
So what China did is not unusual, it is extreme yes, heavyhanded even, but the most important step in preventing an epidemic is to stop the spread of the virus this includes the movement of suspected infected individuals.

 

[solarz]

Why is it that everytime we have an important thread, there's always some moron coming out of the woodworks to post nonsense?

 

[Deleted member 13312]

Why is it that everytime we have an important thread, there's always some moron coming out of the woodworks to post nonsense?

Because conspiracy theories don't need facts, it merely needs the belief that it is true.

 

[adiru]

A potential development to watch.

White House tells airlines it may suspend all China-US flights amid coronavirus outbreak

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That flight they bought back to US landed in a military base. Im presuming they are going to draw blood and test everyone for the virus before releasing them... neither side is taking any chances if you know what I mean.

UK and others are imposing a 14 day quarantine as well. Four new cases in UAE are of a Chinese family. So far all foreign cases seem to be of Chinese or Asain ethnicity

 

[localizer]

Frankly now the model is built is not the important part but what can be meaningfully interpreted from it. IMO there are at least two important takeaways.

I have added some notes to the graph and I will walk through what in my view are important components to it.

View attachment 57083

It should be noted that the graph is in log scale. If it was in real terms the graph would look a lot more parabolic in presentation.

The first takeaway is that the infection rate is still expanding at an exponential level and no sign that the infection rate is slowing down. Therefore to answer the question - will we get to 100,000 within a week? No one knows but the model is projecting it will and so far the model is tracking in line with the reported infection numbers.
The second takeaway is whatever measures that are currently being taken is not slowing down the infection rate because the actual trajectory of the graph is not showing any slowing down. At some point I expect to see numbers indicating a slow down in infection rate via a deviation in actual data vs projected data as illustrated in the graph. When the incoming data starts to support such a state of slowing down then we will know but how soon can we see that is an unknown.
Finally, a 45 degree expansion angle is normally quite sustainable as a natural state but given it is in log scale, some reservation of such an interpretation would apply. In other words, my concern is it might have some way to go before the graph starts to slow down. .

Brother I asked about the model that you created and the R0 value and how to interpret it. Please don’t use that chart.

 

[adiru]

Loc, he isnt your brother and he doesnt have a model

 

[Franklin]

Here is a nice resource if you want a birds eye view of what is happening. Wouldn't these types of pneumonia virus 'hibernate' when the weather gets warmer ?

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[Deleted member 13312]

if you would stop worshipping Xi Jinping for a second I assure you yourself would realize how much of an idiot your were.

I would think that he is referring to the conspiracy theory that the coronavirus is some form of bio weapon.

 

[adiru]

I would think that he is referring to the conspiracy theory that the coronavirus is some form of bio weapon.

To clear up any misunderstanding and for the record I never insinuated and do not concur that the virus escaped from Wuhan lab like many in the Western MSM speculated about. I personally find that scenario impossible, like akin to China losing track of a nuclear warhead etc

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