At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the city's cases will double over the next 6 days.
Media reports detailed the estimates from Gabriel Leung, MD, MPH, and Joseph Wu, PhD, both with the HKU medical school. The scientists also posted their slide presentation on HKU's website.
They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely symptomatic and the others are still in the incubation period.
They warned 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic and that sustained human-to-human spread is already occurring in major Chinese cities. They said Chinese cities should take "substantial, draconian" measures to limit population mobility, such as cancelling mass gatherings, schools closures, and implementing work-from-home arrangements.
The experts added, however, that quarantines would have limited impact. Leung and Wu urged areas with the closest travel links to China to be ready to deploy their preparedness plans on short notice.
