Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Jura The idiot]

this is tough:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238186926831734784

 

[dratsabknihcllik]

A good read from Spiegel

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[localizer]

There's a big problem with the temperature hypothesis in the US.

Everywhere is air conditioned.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 6:46 PM

Yesterday at 7:04 PM
gosh it could be over twenty-thousand tomorrow (is 17660 today:

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):

in short, recently they've been reporting about two and a half thousand new cases daily

.

Andy it's accelerating in Italy (

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):
21157-17660 = 3497

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 9:36 PM

Today at 6:46 PM
I've now assumed 20000 tomorrow to create this:

it says like (don't nitpick) 'the number of cases quadruples on the 4th day'

at day #1 ... 79 cases set to the value of 1
at day #5 (the 4th day since day #1) ... 445 cases ... 445/79 is about 5.6 (should be 4.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #9 (the 4th day since day #5) ... 1694 cases ... 1694/79 is about 21.4 (should be 16.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #13 (the 4th day since day #9) ... 4636 cases ... 4636/79 is about 58.7 (should be 64.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #17 (the 4th day since day #13) ... 10149 cases ... 10149/79 is about 128.5 (sic!) (should be 128.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)
at day #21 (the 4th day since day #17) ... 20000 cases ... 20000/79 is about 253.2 (should be 256.0 if it held exactly, which of course doesn't)

the point? should it grow this way, they'd have 512*79 = 40448 cases on Wednesday, March 18

(I'm not saying this will happen, I just noticed the trend and expressed it in powers of 2)

now modifying with the reported number for today which is 21157; 21157/79 is about 267.8 (even higher than 4^4):

kind of scary

 

[KYli]

I hope the new measures enacted by Italy work. If not, we are not talking about 100,000 cases. Spain would implement something similar like Italy soon. It is time to act now for many western countries to get ahead of the curve.

 

[localizer]

I hope the new measures enacted by Italy work. If not, we are not talking about 100,000 cases. Spain would implement something similar like Italy soon. It is time to act now for many western countries to get ahead of the curve.

GL

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238835138257174528

 

[Hendrik_2000]

While the rest of the world is thick in Corona virus life is slowly returning to normal in china

 

[Anlsvrthng]

I hope the new measures enacted by Italy work. If not, we are not talking about 100,000 cases. Spain would implement something similar like Italy soon. It is time to act now for many western countries to get ahead of the curve.

Ok, so stay in full lockdown for half year ?

Or what is the strategy?

The full lock-down is a knee jerk move.

To protect 5% of the population they close the 100% down, and stop all economic activity.

IF they continue like this in few weeks time they run out of food.

 

[dratsabknihcllik]

The fed just spent the equivalent of the annual GDP of Canada to save the stock market from crashing. So what do you think that will do to growth in the coming month?

Don't know but we can trust the system.