No offensive to anybody, but people need to stop this preset mind which I call it “China can, so I can.” It makes people blind to impending disaster.
No you can't unless you study China's experience with whole-heartly respect on science.
Time of critical decision:
China locked down entire province with 57 million people when there were hundreds of cases.
Force of intervene:
Motherland calls! China dumped 40k medical workers, 5.3 million protective suits, 10 million N95 masks, 68 thousand medical armariums inlucing 22 thousand respiratory therapy equipments(ventilators and ECMO) into Hubei Province.
Result:
Hubei ended up in an 3.8% case fatality ratio(CFR).
Let's take Italy for a compare.
Time:
Italy locked down its 60 million population at the day when the case number reached 10000, too late compare tk China.
Not mention Italy's quarantine method is much looser and enforcement is much weaker than China's.
Intervene:
Could Italy count on powerful helping hand from EU or US?
Result for now:
In Italy, the CFR is about to (or already) breached 5%.
Why the hell there is still hallucination that the CFR will drop when cases rise?
More cases means more patients in severe condintion, more hospital beds occupied for 3-6 weeks, more medicals working at the brink of worn out, more ventilators needed, more negative-pressure-chambers necessary for intubate.
This is not general theory of relativity. It works the same way to all homo sapiens:
To COVID-19, the CFR could be suppressed below 1% only when the medical system can provide sufficient eqipments and professionals.
This sufficiency had been lost in Hubei especially Wuhan. China enforced strict quarantine, contained the spread in headcount and region-width, then the socialism national machine mounted enough assets to crush the problem.
This sufficiency is lost in Italy.
I can't figure out where the situation is going and don't want to imagine what will happen. Seems the only way out is massive material and expertise input from China.
If you put Italy's number together, it fits with Hubei's epi-curve 37days ago.
I found numbers of Spain, France and Germany, then use their curve to compare with Hubei and Italy.
Guys, I feel bad now.
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