Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
That one that mentions how Hong Kongers and Taiwanese are polite... Not American. Most likely a Hong Konger. A little known fact is Americans don't care to bother. So when you see someone comment that mentions another country specifically other along with the US like it's them against everyone else, that's where the poster is from and/or the ethnicity. I always see comments that mention in terms that it's the US and India or US and Vietnam against China and guess what nationality is that poster... Americans don't think in those terms unless there's some specific agenda they want to implement according to recent events. In general they're not that specific.

Let's not make the racist mistake of equating Americans with European Americans. I'm sure a Chinese American who speaks Mandarin would be able to tell the difference between Hong Kongers, Taiwanese or Mainlanders.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is the scary part. When Wuhan was locked down, there were 800+ cases, vs 8-10,000 in Italy. Meanwhile, the virus has already spread to other parts of Europe to a much greater extent as well. France, Spain and Germany all have more total cases (including recovered, which are very few in Europe) than all provinces in China besides Hubei, and these number are still climbing fast. Switzerland looks pretty serious as well.

The strategy in China with the lockdown was twofold: 1) concentrate the medical resources from the whole country in Wuhan and Hubei, while 2) buying time to allow the public health authorities in the other provinces (and the rest of the world) to prepare and take the necessary measures. The two components obviously aided each other, and this is not possible in Europe. Instead, it's each country out for itself.

The situation in Europe looks very bad to me. While the number of deaths in Italy seems to say the medical system is already overwhelmed, it seems the neighbors are either unwilling or unable to help in a very strong way. Their own medical systems are already coming under stress, and could become overwhelmed as well.

Unfortunately things will likely get much much worse for Italy before it gets better. According to this preprint

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The burden on healthcare system in Wuhan peaked ONE MONTH after the lock-down. By then two new hospitals had been built and about 45,000 HCWs with relevant specializations were sent to Wuhan along with needed PPEs and medical equipments, so the fatality rate actually went down. But as you've mentioned, Italy has none of these. The demand for healthcare will keep increasing but their doctors will be infected without replenishment. They will be exhausted, which leads to more infections and in turn to higher workload and more exhaustion. I don't even want to think about the amount of human suffering that will likely take place in the next few weeks.

I remember reading last month a post on a Chinese social media site made by a (very lovely) young Uyghur woman. She wrote that her father, who was participating in the outbreak control works in Xinjiang, told her that he thought China was a great country doing things that no other countries could: rapidly organizing and sending helps from all over the country to Hubei. It was not long after the death of Dr Li Wenliang and much of the Chinese internet was still mad at the government, so she and her father were called out by other users for being 'brainwashed'. Even I thought they were a bit naive. Turns out her father was 100% right.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Let's not make the racist mistake of equating Americans with European Americans. I'm sure a Chinese American who speaks Mandarin would be able to tell the difference between Hong Kongers, Taiwanese or Mainlanders.

I'm using the language of Americans. I was born in the US and I know I'm not considered American by most. And I'm not referring to just Caucasians. Plenty of minorities see Asians as foreigners including the ones born in the US. Many of them think all Asians are either Chinese or Japanese and those are just names because they think Chinese and Japanese are the same people.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Can someone confirm if there is any American member on the WHO Coronavirus team that visited China, including Wuhan, in February ?

The Canadian member, Dr Bruce Aylward, gave many interviews to share his impression of the visit to both Western, Asian and Chinese media. But I have not seen a single interview with any American member, if there is one.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Can someone confirm if there is any American member on the WHO Coronavirus team that visited China, including Wuhan, in February ?

The Canadian member, Dr Bruce Aylward, gave many interviews to share his impression of the visit to both Western, Asian and Chinese media. But I have not seen a single interview with any American member, if there is one.

Yes. Clifford Lane, described as a 'right-hand man' to Anthony Fauci, did an interview with Science:
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One highlight:
Q: What was eye opening to you on the trip?


A:
I’d never been to China. I was really surprised with how modern the cities were, and how high technology was in many of the places we visited. The briefing rooms at China’s CDC [Center for Disease Control and Prevention] with these multipanel screens and multiple displays of data was quite impressive. And cities with 15 million people, that’s like, no big deal.

See the problem? Highly educated American like Lane was surprised by the fact that there were a lot of flatscreen displays at Chinese CDC's briefing room.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Ref Point 2. Wouldn't you get the overall hospital admittance rate for serious cases with a large scale sampling of the Wuhan (or Guangdong) population with a blood antibody test? This will give you the overall number of infected. Presumably this is happening very soon, if not already.



3a. Given a very healthy cohort of 18-40 year old subjects with no pre-existing conditions, what sort of timescales are we typically looking at for a full recovery from pneumonia? And is pneumonia the only realistic complication?

3b. Are there any comparable coronaviruses which would give us an indication on whether that healthy 18-40 cohort with mild symptoms would suffer any long-term effects?



Say that healthy 18-40 cohort has been infected by a particular strain of the Coronavirus, how long could we expect immunity to that same strain to last for:
4a. Assuming they weren't exposed again?
4b. Assuming they were to be continually exposed to low levels of the same coronavirus strain?

For 2, sampling a large population in Wuhan of 11 million people wouldbe close to impossible, cost wise and time wise. Recruiting those people for sampling is also impossible.In a typically clinical study, gathering data from 11 million people is physically impossible.

3a, I honestly have no idea. This is a new virus. No one at this point can know what sort of long term effects patients may have. As you can see, this particular Coronavirus has thrown us curve balls after curve balls. We will just have to wait and see.

3b, The closest comparison would be the SARS. What I mentioned before would be based on observations of SARS patients.

4a, as I’ve mentioned before, it all depends on how fast the virus mutates. Typically, we would assume 6 months, based on what we know about influenza. This is all a guess since we only found out about the COVID-19 about 2 months ago. Too little time for us to find out how fast it mutates and how well we can stay immune.

4b, this would be a nightmare that no one wants to experience. Being Continuously exposed to a virus? We are not even allowed to do such a thing to lab mice. Assuming we are not abducted by torturous aliens who want to do terrible experiments on us, no one should expect this kindof thing to happen in the real world.

Sorry to ask, but have you or someone you know contracted the virus? You seem to be focused squarely on a specific group of people...
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Can someone confirm if there is any American member on the WHO Coronavirus team that visited China, including Wuhan, in February ?

The Canadian member, Dr Bruce Aylward, gave many interviews to share his impression of the visit to both Western, Asian and Chinese media. But I have not seen a single interview with any American member, if there is one.

You're probably not going to find one that will say anything. If you watched last Sunday's 60 Minutes in the US, they had the doctor that wrote before a paper that Trump held out as an example where he said the US was the number one country in the world that would handle an outbreak better than any other country. You can tell this doctor was embarrassed by it but he then said the US was the number one country that could handle an outbreak but immediately said after in Trumpian form that no country including the US is prepared. Contradiction? That's because in the era of Trump, American officials have to be careful to criticize Trump therefore they literally talk in this double-speak in public because they know Trump can make your life miserable if he sees you wronged him.
 
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