Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[AndrewS]

For question 2, I don' think anyone knows the admittance rate since you will need to know the number of people with either no symptom or very mild symptoms. Since neither of these people will go to the hospital, we will never find out.

Ref Point 2. Wouldn't you get the overall hospital admittance rate for serious cases with a large scale sampling of the Wuhan (or Guangdong) population with a blood antibody test? This will give you the overall number of infected. Presumably this is happening very soon, if not already.

For question 3, most people with pneumonia will develop calcified granulomas in the lungs. Younger people will eventually fully recover, while older people may never fully recover. The COVID-19 will be similar. As to people with mild symptoms, no one knows at this point. We will find out later.

3a. Given a very healthy cohort of 18-40 year old subjects with no pre-existing conditions, what sort of timescales are we typically looking at for a full recovery from pneumonia? And is pneumonia the only realistic complication?

3b. Are there any comparable coronaviruses which would give us an indication on whether that healthy 18-40 cohort with mild symptoms would suffer any long-term effects?

For question 4, that would be yes since the test is based on detecting antibodies in the blood. For Coronaviruses, the antibodies typically last about 6 months because the viruses keep mutating. Eventually, they will mutate too much and your antibodies won't recognize the virus.

Say that healthy 18-40 cohort has been infected by a particular strain of the Coronavirus, how long could we expect immunity to that same strain to last for:
4a. Assuming they weren't exposed again?
4b. Assuming they were to be continually exposed to low levels of the same coronavirus strain?

 

[localizer]

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Coronavirus: Health minister Nadine Dorries tests positive

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Health minister and Conservative MP Nadine Dorries says she has tested positive for coronavirus.
She said in a statement that as soon as she was informed she took all the advised precautions and had been self-isolating at home.
It comes as a sixth person died from the virus in the UK, which has a total of 382 cases.
The latest person to die was a man in his early 80s who had underlying health conditions.

 

[OppositeDay]

English translation of the National Health Commission's COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment guidelines (7th edition)

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[Red Moon]

Fully agree.

For the sake of many of our forumers, this EU mistake is not going to and unlikely to be repeated in the US.

I'm not sure what's going to happen in the US. By the way, according to worldometers, the US figure is already 974 (and 959 according to the Johns Hopkins site), so significantly higher than the projection quoted in your post in the previous page.

Last night I watched most of the "daily briefing" of the WHO on Coronavirus. They were kind of hot hot hot on "containment" of the virus and criticizing those who want to pass on to the "mitigation" stage, essentially giving up on containment. The WHO is praising China, but in the same breath is also praising S.Korea, Japan and Singapore for the very same thing: not giving up on containment. Well, this morning, I watched some live hearing held by the CDC (in the US) with people from various localities (officials, I believe), They were very much emphasizing "mitigation", so I guess I was hearing criticism of the US last night, though they did not name any countries.

However, without arguing about the words, it seems many local officials want a more aggressive approach than the CDC. For example, New Rochelle in Westchester County (near NYC) is basically on a lockdown for two weeks, which obviously is "containment" and not just mitigation. Hopefully, the overall policy will turn out to be mitigation in words, but containment in deeds.

Another thing arguing in favor of your view, is that the US is more or less positioned as a third wave (China first, Europe second). Under current ideological conditions, it is next to impossible for the US to learn from China, even though this has nothing to do with ideology or politics. But if the Europeans change course, as Italy has, the US can learn from that. If not, can the US learn from European mistakes? It's too early to say, I think.

 

[localizer]

Sigh... the terrorist propaganda is nonstop.

And when their prisoners are forced to make stuff in exchange for commissaries it's not a violation of human rights.

 

[Aniah]

View attachment 58223

Sigh... the terrorist propaganda is nonstop.

And when their prisoners are forced to make stuff in exchange for commissaries it's not a violation of human rights.

Gotta love Redditors, just shame and slander 1.4 billion people oh but not those people on the small island. They don't oppose my views so we gotta make them look like a godsend compared to mainlanders. The IQ of these frogs is at an all-time low and it just keeps going lower.

 

[Nutrient]

It is wishful thinking.

All measure done by everyone just slow down the virus, doesn't stop it.

It will stop only when over 50% of the population will be immune.
But they have to catch it first.

It will be like the chickenpox . Everyone will catch it in early years ,or there will be a mandatory vaccine in young age for all child.

Say China will be free from it with extreme cost, and at the same time all africa , banglades ,thailand ect will catch it , become immune with marginal viral carriers.

What will China do ?
Hermetically separate itself from the external world ?

Not wishful thinking. China could develop a reliable and safe vaccine and sell it to the rest of the world -- or maybe even give a huge amount away for free. Then China could require a vaccination certificate as part of the visa process.

With nearly the whole Chinese population immune to Covid (because of vaccines), and with imported cases cut to a minimum (because of the certification requirement), the country should be fine.

 

[OppositeDay]

You are assuming a situation where for example 1000 patients suddenly got infected and admitted to the hospital at the same time. In such a case you will see a jump in death rate at around a certain time point (let's say 2 weeks) depending on the type of disease.

In the real world, such a thing doesn't happen. the 1000 patients that are infected that came in the last few days may have caught the virus at very different times during the past 10 days or so. See the difference?

Since you're so detemined, I calculated for Hubei Province using Excel the "sum of daily death" / ("sum of daily death + daily cured)" for 10 days using the table provided by Supercat.

Here is the result. As you can see there is no "distortion". The mortality rate has actually decreased during the last 4 days.

Daily Death __________________________________________________ Daily Cured _________________________________________ Mortality rate

45​	2492​	0.017737​
34​	2292​	0.014617​
42​	2570​	0.01608​
31​	2410​	0.0127​
37​	2389​	0.015251​
31​	1923​	0.015865​
29​	1487​	0.019129​
28​	1502​	0.018301​
27​	1543​	0.017197​
21​	1422​	0.014553​
	Total:	0.161431​
	Average :	0.016143​

The average Mortality rate for Hubei for the 10 days is 1.61% (Compared this to the early days!)

The Mortality rate for Hubei has been decreasing from 1.91% to 1.83% to 1.71% to 1.46% for the last four days.

Of course in the real world there won't be a 'jump'. The model was made on simplifying assumptions. In the real world there is not even a sharp distinction between mild and severe cases. Everything will be on a continuum. But the phenomenon the model illustrates is real. On average it takes a shorter time for a mild case patient to recover than for a severe case patient to recover. On average mild case patients being discharged today would have been infected later than severe case patients being discharged today. If we're on the right hand half of the bell curve (which we are), this will cause a distortion, because the number of new infections keeps dropping over time.

I don't know why you think the decreasing daily crude fatality rate on the last four days would disprove the distortion I mentioned. It's clear that the number of daily resolved cases are by now too small to deduce a trend from just four data points. Also, in case you didn't notice, the five days average is higher for the second five days than for the first five days.

The proportion of mild cases patient will keep decreasing. This trend will continue and given the speed in which mild case patients are being discharged, a couple weeks from now almost all mild case patients will have recovered, and there will still be many patients in serious conditions. Take a look then at fatality rate calculated from your method and tell me it's not overestimating. Why don't we wait before revisiting this discussion?

 

[AssassinsMace]

View attachment 58223

Sigh... the terrorist propaganda is nonstop.

And when their prisoners are forced to make stuff in exchange for commissaries it's not a violation of human rights.

That one that mentions how Hong Kongers and Taiwanese are polite... Not American. Most likely a Hong Konger. A little known fact is Americans don't care to bother. So when you see someone comment that mentions another country specifically other along with the US like it's them against everyone else, that's where the poster is from and/or the ethnicity. I always see comments that mention in terms that it's the US and India or US and Vietnam against China and guess what nationality is that poster... Americans don't think in those terms unless there's some specific agenda they want to implement according to recent events. In general they're not that specific.

 

[Mcsweeney]

Gotta love Redditors, just shame and slander 1.4 billion people oh but not those people on the small island. They don't oppose my views so we gotta make them look like a godsend compared to mainlanders. The IQ of these frogs is at an all-time low and it just keeps going lower.

Yup the casual racism I encounter pretty much every corner of the Internet is mind-blowing. "Chinese people are horrible ... oh except the ones who reject their culture and worship the West. Those guys are great and I love them"