We’ll see if the lockdown measures are working in a couple of days. Fingers crossed.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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Jura The idiot
General
oh I see
Realistically, I think we'll only see the lockdown effects in 1-2weeks for Italy.
This is the scary part. When Wuhan was locked down, there were 800+ cases, vs 8-10,000 in Italy. Meanwhile, the virus has already spread to other parts of Europe to a much greater extent as well. France, Spain and Germany all have more total cases (including recovered, which are very few in Europe) than all provinces in China besides Hubei, and these number are still climbing fast. Switzerland looks pretty serious as well.
The strategy in China with the lockdown was twofold: 1) concentrate the medical resources from the whole country in Wuhan and Hubei, while 2) buying time to allow the public health authorities in the other provinces (and the rest of the world) to prepare and take the necessary measures. The two components obviously aided each other, and this is not possible in Europe. Instead, it's each country out for itself.
The situation in Europe looks very bad to me. While the number of deaths in Italy seems to say the medical system is already overwhelmed, it seems the neighbors are either unwilling or unable to help in a very strong way. Their own medical systems are already coming under stress, and could become overwhelmed as well.
Jura The idiot
General
... are indeed strange (took them from "LOM" column of ):
| date | # of cases | # of dead |
| March 9 | 1280 | 66 |
| March 10 | 322 | 135 |
I mean if I had seen 1322 for today, not 322, I wouldn't have been surprised
EDIT anyway 135 killed in one day in one region is a horror!
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Not sure if this already been posted but:
By Ninghui Li, Professor of Computer Science, Purdue University
March 8, 2020
Goal.
This letter aims at convincing the US Government to immediately adopt aggressive policies to contain the spreading of COVID-19.
Facts.
- Once community spread takes hold in a country or region, the number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every 3 days or so, unless aggressive social distancing policies are enforced.
- Italy was forced to , .
- [Update.] Italy finally . Had Italy taken decisive action one week ago, it could have avoided locking down the whole country, just as China’s locking down Hubei avoided the need for locking down the whole country.
- The number of cases in the US is about the same as ’s numbers 10 days ago. What Italy is doing now, the US is likely to have to follow in 10 days.
Without new decisive containment efforts, the number of confirmed cases in US will increase at least 10 folds in 10 days, to 4000 or more (and possibly as high as 10,000) by Mar 17.
- Every region with cases reaching 400 has been on exponential growth until reaching 4000. To go from around 400 to 4000, it took China 6 days, S. Korea 8 days, Italy 9 days, Iran 7 days.
- In 3 days (from Mar 5 to Mar 8), grows from 423 to 1126, and grows from 349 to 847, both significantly more than doubling..
- The situation will be dire by the end of March, before warm weather arrives in the northern part of the country.
| Date | 3/7 | 3/8 | 3/9 | 3/10 | 3/11 | 3/12 | 3/13 | 3/14 | 3/15 | 3/16 | 3/17 | 3/18 |
| Prediction | 388 | 493 | 626 | 795 | 1009 | 1282 | 1628 | 2068 | 2626 | 3335 | 4235 | 5379 |
| Actual | 352 | 495 | 640 |
The Paths Ahead.
Path A. The US government takes decisive and proactive actions today and leads the Western world to enforce aggressive social distancing measures to contain the spread. Looking at situations in China, this should be able to contain the virus in 4 to 6 weeks. Life should be able to return to normal by June or July. Economy should be able to quickly recover in a few months after that. Total number of cases in the US may be in the tens of thousands, with hundreds of deaths. There will be economic and other kinds of pains and suffering, but these are unavoidable.
Path B. Continue the current course of action. In no more than two weeks (by Mar 22), the number of confirmed cases will top 10 thousands. Health care systems in states starting with Washington, California, New York will be strained like Northern Italy today. US government may have to adopt drastic social distancing measures similar to locking down entire cities.
It appears that US officials have admitted and moved to mitigation; however, it is unclear what is the mitigation strategy. The only rational choice is Path A. While this brings the disruption to the broader society earlier, the magnitude of the disruption will be less and it will pass quicker. Without decisive and aggressive actions now, the government will have to take these or even more drastic measures later, when the virus is much more widespread, which leads to thousands of preventable deaths, health care systems straining to the point of breaking, longer disruption of social and economic activities, and bigger scale of damage to the society and the economy.
Every day of delaying means more people die in the end.
Path A. The US government takes decisive and proactive actions today and leads the Western world to enforce aggressive social distancing measures to contain the spread. Looking at situations in China, this should be able to contain the virus in 4 to 6 weeks. Life should be able to return to normal by June or July. Economy should be able to quickly recover in a few months after that. Total number of cases in the US may be in the tens of thousands, with hundreds of deaths. There will be economic and other kinds of pains and suffering, but these are unavoidable.
Path B. Continue the current course of action. In no more than two weeks (by Mar 22), the number of confirmed cases will top 10 thousands. Health care systems in states starting with Washington, California, New York will be strained like Northern Italy today. US government may have to adopt drastic social distancing measures similar to locking down entire cities.
- The best case scenario is that the spreading can still be contained by these measures to be about 10 to 50 times the size as under Path A, i.e., with hundreds of thousands or a few millions of people infected, and thousands or more deaths. It will take longer for the lockdown effort to be effective because of the scale of spreading. It may be August or September before life can return to normal. And the economic damage will be a lot higher than Path A.
- Worst-case scenario is that spreading cannot be contained, and we are looking at situations predicted by some experts, with up to . Local communities will still try any conceivable containment method. Economic and social activities will be greatly disrupted. 20% of the population over the age of 70, as well as significant fractions of other age groups, will die while waiting for medical care, with family members desperately looking on. The situation looks to be at least as bad as the Spanish flu. We may be looking at the worst humanity and economic disaster since World War 2. The remaining hope after the devastation is that either virus mutates to a milder form, or effective vaccines can be developed before the next wave hits.
It appears that US officials have admitted and moved to mitigation; however, it is unclear what is the mitigation strategy. The only rational choice is Path A. While this brings the disruption to the broader society earlier, the magnitude of the disruption will be less and it will pass quicker. Without decisive and aggressive actions now, the government will have to take these or even more drastic measures later, when the virus is much more widespread, which leads to thousands of preventable deaths, health care systems straining to the point of breaking, longer disruption of social and economic activities, and bigger scale of damage to the society and the economy.
Every day of delaying means more people die in the end.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Death rate in Italy is over 6%! That is truly shocking given the large number of cases, so it’s not like a bad luck event or two skewed the figures.
I think part of that huge mortality rate is undetected inflected, but I think another part is that the Chinese medical system is far better than what many, including Chinese people, would give it credit for.
I remember an interview posted before where foreign medical experts commented that China is actually extremely good at keeping people alive. This was supported by the sheer number of advanced medical devices available in most Chinese hospitals, which is far more than in even European capitals. While the number of such machines per head looks much better for the Europeans, because China managed to slam the breaks on the spread of the virus, it meant that China has far more medical machines per infected than even rich western nations. That would have transformed a lot of other fatalities into cured.
The western MSM is obsessed with bashing China, but Chinese media really need to do a much better job of giving credit where it is earned and due.
I think part of that huge mortality rate is undetected inflected, but I think another part is that the Chinese medical system is far better than what many, including Chinese people, would give it credit for.
I remember an interview posted before where foreign medical experts commented that China is actually extremely good at keeping people alive. This was supported by the sheer number of advanced medical devices available in most Chinese hospitals, which is far more than in even European capitals. While the number of such machines per head looks much better for the Europeans, because China managed to slam the breaks on the spread of the virus, it meant that China has far more medical machines per infected than even rich western nations. That would have transformed a lot of other fatalities into cured.
The western MSM is obsessed with bashing China, but Chinese media really need to do a much better job of giving credit where it is earned and due.
Don't make sense, untreated they will continue to spread among the community. No family is going to give up any member of its family.
Jura The idiot
General
now searched in Italian to find at
related to Lombardy "ma con molti tamponi in arrivo ancora" which I understand like many samples to arrive later today