Quickie
Colonel
You are assuming a situation where for example 1000 patients suddenly got infected and admitted to the hospital at the same time. In such a case you will see a jump in death rate at around a certain time point (let's say 2 weeks) depending on the type of disease.
In the real world, such a thing doesn't happen. the 1000 patients that are infected that came in the last few days may have caught the virus at very different times during the past 10 days or so. See the difference?
Since you're so detemined, I calculated for Hubei Province using Excel the "sum of daily death" / ("sum of daily death + daily cured)" for 10 days using the table provided by Supercat.
Here is the result. As you can see there is no "distortion". The mortality rate has actually decreased during the last 4 days.
Daily Death __________________________________________________ Daily Cured _________________________________________ Mortality rate
45 | 2492 | 0.017737 |
34 | 2292 | 0.014617 |
42 | 2570 | 0.01608 |
31 | 2410 | 0.0127 |
37 | 2389 | 0.015251 |
31 | 1923 | 0.015865 |
29 | 1487 | 0.019129 |
28 | 1502 | 0.018301 |
27 | 1543 | 0.017197 |
21 | 1422 | 0.014553 |
| Total: | 0.161431 | |
| Average : | 0.016143 |
The average Mortality rate for Hubei for the 10 days is 1.61% (Compared this to the early days!)
The Mortality rate for Hubei has been decreasing from 1.91% to 1.83% to 1.71% to 1.46% for the last four days.
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