Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member

Développés par l’Université de Xiamen et la société chinoise YST, 4 kits de dépistage rapide du
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passent la conformité CE et commencent à être livrés à l'Italie, la Hongrie, l'Autriche et aux Pays-Bas. La Corée du Sud avait acheté 10000 kits et a commandé 100000 de plus.
Translated from French by Google
Developed by Xiamen University and the Chinese company YST, 4 rapid screening kits for
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pass CE conformity and start to be delivered to Italy, Hungary, Austria and the Netherlands. South Korea had purchased 10,000 kits and ordered an additional 100,000.

ESiGAaiVAAAdp4W.jpeg
 

Phoenix_Rising

Junior Member
20200310155453965.png
Feberuary, reporters inerviewing Lt. Gen. Cavoli

I have 2 news and one rumor.

News:
1.
Italian Government ordered quarantine for whole country. Without permission, all cross-city travel are banned.
2.
Accoring to The Hill, Lt. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, The Commander of US Ground Force in Europe is now under self-quarantine. He is believed that had contacted to confirmed COVID-19 patients in a meeting.

Rumour:
I heard that Italy is about to set a line of age. For elders who exceeded the line, doctors can abandon the treatment. Anyone have upgrade on this?
 
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Quickie

Colonel
No because the average time to discharge for mild cases is a lot shorter than the time to discharge for serious cases and the time to death (for patients in ICU). My method of calculation reduces time-related distortions.

Not sure what is your time-related distortion calculation is. I think you forgot that the number of serious cases reduces (significantly enough thankfully) on a daily basis more so on cases being removed from the serious category because of patient improvement than because of death.

The thing is the mortality rate is going to be "sum of daily death" / ("sum of daily death + daily cured") until when the epidemic ends with existing cases reduced to 0.

If conditions are relatively stabilized, the mortality rate is going to be close to current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured")
 

Quickie

Colonel
Let me just add that if the numbers during the early phase of the epidemic in Hubei is included, it's going to skew the overall mortality rate in China very much.
 
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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Let me just add that if the numbers during the early phase of the epidemic in Hubei is included, it's going to skew the overall mortality rate in China very much.

Well death rate outside of hubei is <1% so far, that probably represents the true death rate.

In developed countries with comparable elderly populations we should multiply deaths by 100 to get guesstimated total cases. How so few died in Germany idk but probably because their medical system is much better?



I take back what I said about the quarantine being not necessary. China’s population density is too high and medical system was already overworked.

Although if they were more transparent about inside wuhan at the start and everyone started wearing masks then we wouldn’t have to quarantine in the first place.
 
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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not sure what is your time-related distortion calculation is. I think you forgot that the number of serious cases reduces (significantly enough thankfully) on a daily basis more so on cases being removed from the serious category because of patient improvement than because of death.

The thing is the mortality rate is going to be "sum of daily death" / ("sum of daily death + daily cured") until when the epidemic ends with existing cases reduced to 0.

If conditions are relatively stabilized, the mortality rate is going to be close to current average daily death / ("average daily death + average daily cured")

There is a time-related distortion if one calculates daily death/daily resolved cases because the average time to discharge for mild cases, the average time to discharge for serious cases and the average time to death are different.

For example, suppose that it takes exactly two weeks for a mild case patient to discharge, 4 weeks for a serious case to discharge and 5 weeks for a patient to die. If you calculate daily death/daily resolved cases, what you're calculating is roughly dying patient with onset 5 weeks ago/(patient with mild onset 2 weeks ago+surviving patient with serious onset 4 weeks ago + dying patient with onset 5 weeks ago). Since the epi curve is going to be a bell curve, this is either an underestimation of the final CFR (before the peak of the bell curve) or an overestimation of the final CFR (after the peak). As mild cases make up the bulk of cases, this distortion is rather severe, but can be minimized if we look instead at death rate for serious cases only. This is of course an extremely simplified model, but it illustrates the idea.

As the makeshift hospitals are closed and mild cases being discharged at a rapid rate, if you calculate "sum of daily death" / ("sum of daily death + daily cured)", expect the rate to increase drastically in coming days. But don't be alarmed, it's just a distortion.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Well death rate outside of hubei is <1% so far, that probably represents the true death rate.

In developed countries with comparable elderly populations we should multiply deaths by 100 to get guesstimated total cases. How so few died in Germany idk but probably because their medical system is much better?



I take back what I said about the quarantine being not necessary. China’s population density is too high and medical system was already overworked.

Although if they were more transparent about inside wuhan at the start and everyone started wearing masks then we wouldn’t have to quarantine in the first place.
But hindsight 2020
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I guess all the China basher are angry and frustrated now that their "Chernobyl moment" DOES NOT come to fruition and after this incident the CCP will smell like roses compare to you know who. And they blame left and right from WHO to Science magazine for praising China effort to curb the epidemic instead of criticizing CCP . And as always they quote China basher like Munk school of Global affair in Toronto

Don’t Let the Chinese Government Escape Blame for Coronavirus’s Initial Spread
Therese Shaheen
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March 10, 2020, 5:30 AM CDT
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9055f8a1678d05b87c80b2ee42c949e6

From almost the very beginning of the COVID-19/coronavirus crisis in January and early February, it’s
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whether it might be the “Chinese Chernobyl.” Could the crisis expose the weakness of the mix of oppression, information control, and social disgust that underpin the Chinese Communist regime and trigger its collapse? Others have
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that it might instead be “president Xi Jinping’s Tiananmen,” meaning he will use all the tools at his disposal to tighten down and prevent, well . . . a Chinese Chernobyl.


It is too soon to know what may happen. But it’s not too soon for attempts to whitewash the timeline and Chinese-government actions in the earliest moments of the crisis. Indeed, even now, the level of public anxiety about both the virus and what the Chinese government is doing and saying about it remain high.

It is helpful to review the current status and the timeline that got us here. On Monday, February 24, the World Health Organization determined that reported cases of COVID-19/coronavirus had peaked. At the time, there were about 76,000 reported cases in China, and about 1,800 cases elsewhere in the world. In the United States, there were 14 reported cases. As of March 7, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and state and local public health reporting suggest the number is more than 300 cases, a twenty-fold increase. Globally, there are more than 100,000 cases, with more than 350 deaths in Italy alone.

The world has barely begun to reckon with what the Chinese government claims to have gotten under control. It’s true that forced quarantining and other extreme measures in China played a critical role. The World Health Organization report of its February mission to China praises the PRC for its response: “The response structures in China were rapidly put in place according to existing emergency plans and aligned from the top to the bottom. This was replicated at the four levels of government (national, provincial, prefecture and county/district).” The leader of the World Health Organization mission to China in February, Canadian epidemiologist Dr. Bruce Aylward, encouraged the world to “access the expertise of China,” adding that “if I had COVID-19, I’d want to be treated in China.”

But the WHO report and subsequent reporting about what the world can learn from China represents a real-time cleansing of the actual record, a record that includes intentional obfuscation and failure to respond in the early stages of the crisis. This includes the government’s early attempts to stifle communication about the virus, the censorship of doctors and others on social media as cases were being observed in late December, and the continuing suppression of information on social media across the country about how the government, from President Xi Jinping to local administrators, continues to mislead the public and the rest of the world.

On March 3, researchers at the University of Toronto Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy published “Censured Contagion,” a report that meticulously documents a timeline and body of facts that paint quite a different picture than the WHO report, and placing WHO’s accolades for China’s “response structures” that were “rapidly put in place” in doubt. The WHO report concludes that the beginning of the epidemic was December 30, 2019, with the collection of samples from a pneumonia patient in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Data provided in graphics in the
 
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