Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I'm watching Niall Ferguson talking about China's response to the coronavirus. He says China's response is the most drastic in human history. Others charge it's draconian. If it were, wouldn't they be killing anyone infected and burning the bodies immediately? Trump said anyone who wants a test for the coronavirus will get one to where others had to correct him. If you're not insured in the US and want to check if your illness maybe the coronavirus, it's been reported that people have been charged $3400. Over in China they've guaranteed everyone can get a coronavirus test done for themselves for free and if they have the coronavirus and they have no insurance or runs outs, the government will pay the rest. In the US they're worried that because people who are poor have to think about the costs, they might not seek treatment and hope for the best and wait it out to which is dangerous and can spread the virus even more. Guaranteeing the government will pay the costs is draconian. The news for the past few days after the NYTimes came out with that article I posted earlier interviewing a WHO official who was in China for two weeks in February has been to claim everything from China is a lie. Their in panic more about their image looking worse than China.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I've been thinking a bit about the predicted time to a vaccine. The timeline (12-18 months) is given as if it's graven in stone, but there's a lot that can be done to compress it. To wit, the typical Phase I -> Phase II -> Phase III model needn't be adhered to in a state of emergency. If there's a compelling case for moving faster - which I think there is in this situation - a lot of the guardrails can be removed. For instance, safety trials can be dispensed with by directly testing promising vaccine candidates on condemned prisoners instead of trial participants drawn from the general public. It needn't even be forced; a deal could be offered where if a participant survives the trial his death sentence would be commuted to life imprisonment. You could generalize the idea further and offer reduced sentences to any inmate willing to risk participating in these expedited clinical trials.
 
localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Gatekeeper said:
While the rate of infection continues to claim around the world. In China, it has declined, it is enough to allow the first group of hero health workers to return home.

This, our nation will be forever in your debt! my respect to you all for your selfless sacrifice!

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btw is it true if u get quarantined in HK they give u place to live and feed u


Only 19 cases today in all of china!
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
ZeEa5KPul said:
I've been thinking a bit about the predicted time to a vaccine. The timeline (12-18 months) is given as if it's graven in stone, but there's a lot that can be done to compress it. To wit, the typical Phase I -> Phase II -> Phase III model needn't be adhered to in a state of emergency. If there's a compelling case for moving faster - which I think there is in this situation - a lot of the guardrails can be removed. For instance, safety trials can be dispensed with by directly testing promising vaccine candidates on condemned prisoners instead of trial participants drawn from the general public. It needn't even be forced; a deal could be offered where if a participant survives the trial his death sentence would be commuted to life imprisonment. You could generalize the idea further and offer reduced sentences to any inmate willing to risk participating in these expedited clinical trials.
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Wouldn't work. You need a representative population to ensure the validity of your tests, and you usually do that through randomization. Prisoners, especially prisoners facing execution, have various physical characteristics that make them different from the general population.

As Vesicles mentioned, vaccines are used on healthy people. Right now, the chance of a healthy person dying of COVID-19 is around 100,000 in 7,000,000,000, or 1 in 70,000. If a vaccine has even 1 in 69,999 chance of killing someone, then people are better off taking their chances with the virus!
 
localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
solarz said:
Wouldn't work. You need a representative population to ensure the validity of your tests, and you usually do that through randomization. Prisoners, especially prisoners facing execution, have various physical characteristics that make them different from the general population.

As Vesicles mentioned, vaccines are used on healthy people. Right now, the chance of a healthy person dying of COVID-19 is around 100,000 in 7,000,000,000, or 1 in 70,000. If a vaccine has even 1 in 69,999 chance of killing someone, then people are better off taking their chances with the virus!
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Gotta be careful about this perspective. Both state and corporate entities are rushing towards a vaccine because they know it's high reward and perfectly doable. Vaccines come in many forms, each with its risk and difficulties and development times.

By now there are likely many vaccines already produced that can work semi well for COVID. If the situation warrants it, it will be produced and used because it is the best we've got.
 
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