It is a race against time now. If China could get those reluctant elderly vaccinated and boosted before the peak, then the mortality rate should be low. Otherwise, next few months would not be pretty. Recent statistic does point to a more receptive elderly that are willing to be vaccinated and boosted.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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supercat
Major
I think the mortality rate of flu is up to 0.1%. While a lot of Chinese are doing self-isolation right now, I think some travel restrictions before the Spring Festival is necessary. Furthermore, policymakers should not hesitate to reimpose restrictions on movement. Also, despite the vast majority of Chinese wears mask voluntarily, I think the government should still issue an official mask mandate, together with an all-out vaccine campaign.
My bad, mortality rate for covid after 3 doses is 0.1%. I doubt the government would impose more restrictions. I think the government would downgrade covid to category B virus after ending of the first big wave. And they would no longer impose any travel restrictions or quarantine around the summer.
The Spring Festival probably is the tricky one. I have a feeling that the government might allow free movement of people without quarantine. It is just making no sense to impose restrictions and invite backlash. What is done is done as long as the health care system can cope with the surge. The government preferred to see this wave ending sooner rather later. However, I do see a big push to get elderly vaccinated now.
Things like this are inevitable. Given the lockdown, it had triggered severe cold and flu season, not just covid.
Just in Vancouver, 6 kids have died of flu so far when usually they have only 1-2 during the entire season.
All across the world iits been an atrocious cold and flu season. But it doesn't mean locking down is the solution. There was just too many infection going around to have an appropriate lock down and when lock down does end there will still be a bad flu and cold season. That's just how it works unfortunately
Quickie
Colonel
Yes, that may help. Hopefully, most of the elders have been vaccinated with 2 doses and passed the 6 months optimal time for the third dose. Those who have just been vaccinated with 2 doses would still risk a slightly reduced vaccine protection until they can get the third dose.
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A warning. China is open to covid-19. The situation is critical, hospitals are on the way to being overrun. Many have died(old and unhealthy ones most, for now.), and the government number is unbelievable for the government now lacks the ability to track and identify skyrocket infected people. Hard to tell what happens next, but I suggest people in this forum stock enough medicine and medic equipment produced in china. These things will supply people in china first. Many factories are paid by the government to delay orders from any other but the government itself, to get enough equipment and medicine to equip the Chinese people first.
The only relief is those traitors on social media now get themselves infected, find nobody cares about their open-to-covid-and-all-will-be-fine story, and everybody wants them to die. Educational. Even better if they just die of covid.
The whole production chain is being influenced. Many workers are sick at home. The economic impact will show up maybe months later, the real economic winter starts now. Ready yourself.
TLDR: Covid influenced china's industry productivity, causing problems in the production chain. Stock enough medic equipment and medicine. Prepare for impact.
The only relief is those traitors on social media now get themselves infected, find nobody cares about their open-to-covid-and-all-will-be-fine story, and everybody wants them to die. Educational. Even better if they just die of covid.
The whole production chain is being influenced. Many workers are sick at home. The economic impact will show up maybe months later, the real economic winter starts now. Ready yourself.
TLDR: Covid influenced china's industry productivity, causing problems in the production chain. Stock enough medic equipment and medicine. Prepare for impact.
If China can come through the next 3 to 6 months without chaos then the worst of the pandemic will be over. If China can keep the number of deaths under 1 million it will be a triumph.
Things could have been a lot worse. You now have a less virulent form of the virus and a majority of people are vaccinated so they have some form of protection. China has been able to increase the number of ICU beds in the country significantly over the last 3 years and there are now well known treatment procedures for COVID.
Things could have been a lot worse. You now have a less virulent form of the virus and a majority of people are vaccinated so they have some form of protection. China has been able to increase the number of ICU beds in the country significantly over the last 3 years and there are now well known treatment procedures for COVID.
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like 200K-400K depending on people behavior, mask use and so on.
I got delta and omicron. Omicron is much less severe than delta. I think number of deaths will be much lower than 1 million.
