Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is what it means by Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy, straight from the horse mouth, CDC China.


Perspectives: The Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy in China

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Since its outbreak in late 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has remained a global pandemic for nearly two years, which poses a huge test on the resilience of global public health system (1). After experiencing the large-scale epidemic in February 2020, China has entered a normalization stage of prevention and control since May 2020 (2). In response to the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant, China adopted a new strategy called “Dynamic COVID-zero” from August 2021. This strategy is a summary of China’s experience in dealing with the spread of the Delta variant, considering how to control the epidemic at a higher level, at a lower cost, and in a shorter time (3). The most important purpose is to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy, society, production, and people’s normal lives, and to balance the prevention and control of this disease with socioeconomic stability. For instance, multiple outbreaks that occurred in Beijing were controlled in 2 maximum incubation periods (within 28 days) by this strategy (Figure 1).

The “Dynamic COVID-zero” strategy is a transitional strategy to be adopted after a successful containment strategy, when the population immunity barrier is not yet established in the face of continued risk of foreign importation and high transmission of variants. This is different from the traditional containment and mitigation strategies (4). The core is to take effective and comprehensive measures to deal with localized COVID-19 cases precisely, to quickly cut off the transmission chain, and to end the epidemic in a timely manner (to “find one, end one”). In other words, China took precise prevention and control measures to quickly find, control, and cure infected people in each cluster outbreak within a specific geographic region to avoid affecting social and economic development in other regions, so as to achieve the maximum effect at the lowest cost. When there is a local recurrence, epidemic prevention staff will quickly find the close contacts using new technologies like big data analysis before the spread in the golden response time (within 24 hours after each outbreak). The aim is to find and control potential infected individuals in advance and try to end the outbreak within one or two maximum incubation periods (Figure 2). The formulation and implementation of this strategy requires extensive community involvement, government funding guarantees, application of new technology, motivating mechanisms, constraint mechanisms, and a resilient health system. Moreover, the scientific suggestions from multidisciplinary experts (for example, public health, clinical medicine, big data analysis, sociology, economics, management, and informatics discipline, etc.) are adopted in a timely manner to support decision making.

With the rapid development of molecular biology technology and the wide use of big data analysis, nucleic acid screening can quickly find the source of infection hidden in the population (5). Strict quarantine and management measures can be subsequently implemented. Big data technology can quickly identify close contacts and risk groups, helping to implement precise prevention and control measures. Compared with severe acute respiratory syndromes (SARS) in 2003, the resilience of China’s health system has been improved, and new technologies such as nucleic acid testing and big data analysis have effectively ensured the implementation of the “Dynamic COVID-zero” strategy.

“Dynamic COVID-zero” strategy sums up China’s experience in dealing with Delta, Omicron, and other variants, which has advantages in reducing infection. In general, governments adopt country-specific prevention and control strategies based on their COVID-19 situation, health resources, response capacity and final goals (6). No matter what kind of strategy a country takes, concerted and sustained efforts are needed to end the COVID-19 pandemic globally, especially for curbing the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Those of you who questions China's current covid policy should stand back and ponder over what it means to let the virus rip through China. I had my friends died in NY and cremated in NJ, not knowing they'd die on an ambulance ride, without ever seeing anyone from family, only a final glimpse via video link at the cremation site, cause of death registered under something else other than Covid. All these misidentified deaths, and other deaths caused by lack of health care due to hospitals overwhelmed by Covid situation are of astounding proportions. You could easily add a million to official one million number in American Covid deaths. Just think about the numbers for China if the virus is allowed to let it rip.

14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 - World Health Organization

5 May 2022 News release Reading time: 3 min (852 words)

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Careful, before @Overbom posts PMI data and Caixin index for the 30th time...
 

Quickie

Colonel
Did they removed those restrictions during the Covid wave or after the Covid wave peaked and going down? There's been a pattern of countries removing restrictions after the Covid wave is almost ending, then when Covid cases started going up in the next wave, they start putting restrictions back again.

Personally I'm more concerned of Long covid that can still affect those who are vaccinated or even if the case is mild, because the disabled will be more of a burden than the dead for the economy, but I don't know how significant its effects yet.

Amazingly, the number of cases has been going down while the restrictions are slowly removed in stages.

This is in tandem with the booster shots being highly encouraged and the older age 60+ group being mandatory for their vaccinated status to remain valid.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
calm down dude, my personal beliefs does not equals Chinese government policy. They have their own calculations and analysis. As a responsible citizen, my job is to follow that policy, as a selfish individual, I don't mind letting people die. Btw, I am in Shanghai now and experiencing it first hand. No matter what we do, the West will just fck us up. Just follow what is right as per government doctrine.
Stay safe, stay healthy and live strong brother.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Amazingly, the number of cases has been going down while the restrictions are slowly removed in stages.

This is in tandem with the booster shots being highly encouraged and the older age 60+ group being mandatory for their vaccinated status to remain valid.
That didn't answer my question, but I'll just assume it means they removed restrictions during the early stages of the Covid wave. If their success is to be replicated in China, then they'll need to vaccinate the elderly urgently as possible using the time they are buying from lockdown.

But even if we're to "live with Covid", there's still a point to reducing the amount of infected individuals during each covid wave to minimize the disruption on businesses and healthcare through tools like air filtration and mask, and some restrictions that doesn't cost as much. Also the testing, isolation, monitoring and vaccination capabilities needs to be preserved to a certain degree, in order to prepare for possible future variants and other pathogenic diseases that will arise more frequently due to climate change.

Here's an article written by Malaysia's Minister of Health that I share similar views with on how to live with Covid.
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I'm still concerned over the effects of Long Covid will have on the economy and society however.
 
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solarz

Brigadier
I am personally in favour of letting the old die. But you know how the West will react? They will have headlines like this > China has failed even with zero covid as millions die. It doesn't matter if we do or don't do it, they will find ways to twist it, that's the nature of their system, propaganda warfare.

How old is your mother?
 

Quickie

Colonel
That didn't answer my question, but I'll just assume it means they removed restrictions during the early stages of the Covid wave. If their success is to be replicated in China, then they'll need to vaccinate the elderly urgently as possible using the time they are buying from lockdown.

But even if we're to "live with Covid", there's still a point to reducing the amount of infected individuals during each covid wave to minimize the disruption on businesses and healthcare through tools like air filtration and mask, and some restrictions that doesn't cost as much. Also the testing, isolation, monitoring and vaccination capabilities needs to be preserved to a certain degree, in order to prepare for possible future variants and other pathogenic diseases that will arise more frequently due to climate change.

Here's an article written by Malaysia's Minister of Health that I share similar views with on how to live with Covid.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I'm still concerned over the effects of Long Covid will have on the economy and society however.

".... but I'll just assume it means they removed restrictions during the early stages of the Covid wave ..."

That's not what I mean.

As far as I can recall, restrictions were only further removed when the new cases of infections were showing a decline or remained at a low level.

The restrictions certainly were not simply removed at the early stages of the Covid wave without regard to the seriousness of the situation.
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Current stage of China's Covid policy is now called “scientific, accurate, and dynamic COVID-zero”.

The reasons behind the policy to maintain the dynamic COVID-zero are as follows in a nutshell:

As many countries have announced to relax quarantine policies, China is facing increasing pressure from overseas imports. Recently, several local outbreaks in clusters have appeared in China, presenting a grim and complex situation with multiple spots, wide coverage, and frequent occurrence (3).

The current epidemic was mainly caused by Omicron variant BA.2, which has a short incubation period, strong transmissibility, short serial interval, and a large ability of immune escape (4-5). It was found that the basic regeneration number (R0) of Omicron variant was about 9.5, and its maximum incubation period was about 9 days (4-5). The median incubation period was about 3 days, which was significantly shorter than that of the Delta variant (4.3 days) and other variants (5.0 days) (4-5). Its median serial interval was about 2.8 days (4-5).

China should still persevere in the Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy. Putting people’s lives and health first is the fundamental starting point and goal of all prevention and control measures in China. Because of the large population, unbalanced regional development, and insufficient total medical resources, China will face the risk of serious runs of medical and health resources if the “lying flat” strategy is adopted (10). The health of many patients with underlying diseases, the elderly, children, and pregnant women will be seriously threatened, and the steady economic and social development will be seriously affected (10).

Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy is the general guideline for China’s fight against COVID-19, which is also a summary of previous experiences in fighting against dozens of domestic clusters of outbreaks since 2020. The multiple rounds of COVID-19 have proved that the Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy is in line with China’s national conditions and is the best option for China to fight the epidemic, which is based on the concept of “people first, life first.” China has the capability, the foundation, the conditions, and the toolkits to implement this strategy. Also, China has strong institutional advantages, professional teams, and the support of the public, which will form the greatest protection for life.

The core of the dynamic zero strategy lies in early detection, rapid containment, and cutting off transmission to prevent continuous spread and large-scale rebound of the epidemic (11). This is not about “zero infection” or “zero tolerance” of COVID-19, but about science and precision. The premise of precision is to be effective. In the face of the virus, we need to stay ahead. Zero community transmission refers to newly discovered infected persons being comprehensively found in quarantined and controlled populations without the possibility of spreading to the rest of society. The temporary inconveniences in some areas are for longer-term normal life and socioeconomic development of the population more broadly. We need to take a systematic approach and a long-term view to do the best to strike a better balance between epidemic prevention and control with socioeconomic development.

The Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategies adopted by China have won a precious time window for the future. China should seize this opportunity to speed up research and development of specific drugs and vaccines, accelerate the two or three-dose vaccination of the population, especially for the elderly and children, and strengthen the preparedness of resources for the future to finally defeat the virus at a minimal cost.

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So, no wonder last Friday's Politburo standing committee meeting doubled down on the current Covid strategy. Behind the scene, a lot of research for drugs and vaccines, and more vaccination drives for the elderly and children would have been happening all along.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
".... but I'll just assume it means they removed restrictions during the early stages of the Covid wave ..."

That's not what I mean.

As far as I can recall, restrictions were only further removed when the new cases of infections were showing a decline or remained at a low level.

They certainly didn't simply remove restrictions at the early stages of the Covid wave without regard to the seriousness of the situation.
Ah sorry for the misinterpretation, well I think is alright to remove restrictions as the cases goes down and the situation starts showing signs of cooling down, from what I remember this is what happening in Shanghai and other Chinese cities as well when they managed to contain the transmission chain and cases started to go down. Some districts in Shanghai has already opened, and factories under a whitelist is allowed to operate now.
 
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