Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[Overbom]

Didn't think that Omicron might take down Xi hopes for reelection, it looks like it will be long months before npc election in the autumn.

If he persists with these lockdowns (+ no mandatory vaccination for the elders) which in turn causes a lot of economic damage, I expect a much tougher Party Congress in Fall, where even if (depends on how bad the rest of the year is going to be) he comes at top, he won't have the same power as he would like.

This whole year was supposed to be a campaign year for him. What is he going to campaign on as his achievements? Constant lockdowns, civil unrest, economic damage, reduced international influence due to closed economy?

Xi has been a good leader, but the Covid handling (for this year only) by him has been baffling and it shows clear flaws to his leadership ability.

For example, I still dont understand why he hasn't made vaccination mandatory for the elderly. This is such a low-hanging fruit that it should had be done from the very beginning when vaccines came out. Instead he went with the "safe" option of not making trouble and this is what we get as a result.

 

[solarz]

If he persists with these lockdowns (+ no mandatory vaccination for the elders) which in turn causes a lot of economic damage, I expect a much tougher Party Congress in Fall, where even if (depends on how bad the rest of the year is going to be) he comes at top, he won't have the same power as he would like.

This whole year was supposed to be a campaign year for him. What is he going to campaign on as his achievements? Constant lockdowns, civil unrest, economic damage, reduced international influence due to closed economy?

Xi has been a good leader, but the Covid handling (for this year only) by him has been baffling and it shows clear flaws to his leadership ability.

For example, I still dont understand why he hasn't made vaccination mandatory for the elderly. This is such a low-hanging fruit that it should had be done from the very beginning when vaccines came out. Instead he went with the "safe" option of not making trouble and this is what we get as a result.

Ever tried making elderly people do what they don't want to do? How are you going to punish them?

 

[Overbom]

Ever tried making elderly people do what they don't want to do? How are you going to punish them?

I know their stubbornness, however some things need to be done anyways. Why should the entire nation be held hostage because they don't want to take a 5-min vaccine shot?

Much bigger things are at stake here than just a vaccine. We are talking about economic development, technological ascendancy, and China having (+ ultimately winning) a strategic competition against the US (the entire West basically) in order to become a world power. Please explain, what right do the elderly have to endanger all of this? What right do they have to endanger the hopes and dreams of past, present and future generations?

I am sorry, respect is respect, and responsibility is responsibility. We all know what is at stake here, and no one should be allowed to risk this.

As for your question about "punishment". The West has plenty of examples, just pick one of them. Hard/soft coercive measures would work fine depending on how carefully the state takes action

 

[taxiya]

Didn't think that Omicron might take down Xi hopes for reelection, it looks like it will be long months before npc election in the autumn.

If he persists with these lockdowns (+ no mandatory vaccination for the elders) which in turn causes a lot of economic damage, I expect a much tougher Party Congress in Fall, where even if (depends on how bad the rest of the year is going to be) he comes at top, he won't have the same power as he would like.

This whole year was supposed to be a campaign year for him. What is he going to campaign on as his achievements? Constant lockdowns, civil unrest, economic damage, reduced international influence due to closed economy?

Xi has been a good leader, but the Covid handling (for this year only) by him has been baffling and it shows clear flaws to his leadership ability.

For example, I still dont understand why he hasn't made vaccination mandatory for the elderly. This is such a low-hanging fruit that it should had be done from the very beginning when vaccines came out. Instead he went with the "safe" option of not making trouble and this is what we get as a result.

There is no "election campaign" that is remotely similar to the west.

You two still think that Xi's decision is a personal decision like a western president. It is not, he took the decision in close consultancy with the political bureau. Every decision is a collective one and every member in political bureau signs up to it and is responsible for it even the one who disagrees during the discussion. Even if the decision proved to be "wrong", nobody gets to say "see, I was right, elect me for the next turn". That would be against the fundamental principle of CCP.

 

[solarz]

I know their stubbornness, however some things need to be done anyways. Why should the entire nation be held hostage because they don't want to take a 5-min vaccine shot?

Much bigger things are at stake here than just a vaccine. We are talking about economic development, technological ascendancy, and China having (+ ultimately winning) a strategic competition against the US (the entire West basically) in order to become a world power. Please explain, what right do the elderly have to endanger all of this? What right do they have to endanger the hopes and dreams of past, present and future generations?

I am sorry, respect is respect, and responsibility is responsibility. We all know what is at stake here, and no one should be allowed to risk this.

As for your question about "punishment". The West has plenty of examples, just pick one of them. Hard/soft coercive measures would work fine depending on how carefully the state takes action

First of all, the West doesn't have any way to enforce mandatory vaccination for the elderly.

Second, there's no evidence that the dynamic zero policy is conditional on vaccination rate. That's just speculation on your part.

 

[taxiya]

I know their stubbornness, however some things need to be done anyways. Why should the entire nation be held hostage because they don't want to take a 5-min vaccine shot?

Much bigger things are at stake here than just a vaccine. We are talking about economic development, technological ascendancy, and China having (+ ultimately winning) a strategic competition against the US (the entire West basically) in order to become a world power. Please explain, what right do the elderly have to endanger all of this? What right do they have to endanger the hopes and dreams of past, present and future generations?

I am sorry, respect is respect, and responsibility is responsibility. We all know what is at stake here, and no one should be allowed to risk this.

As for your question about "punishment". The West has plenty of examples, just pick one of them. Hard/soft coercive measures would work fine depending on how carefully the state takes action

In all countries, only government employees and medical personals in public hospitals are mandated to be vaccinated. Why would you demand China to do differently? China being a communist leading country does not mean China is expected to force its population. Unlike what the west is trying to portrait China to be, China is far from draconian. Just for comparison, many western countries used police, Gendarme and military to enforce lock-down in the city, China did not. China relied primarily on cooperation of the population. Once you overtly force the population against their will, you loose the willingness of the population to cooperate. You can only force a small part of population to comply when you have the majority behind your back. For the moment there is no such majority demand of mandating everybody to vaccinate.

 

[Overbom]

In all countries, only government employees and medical personals in public hospitals are mandated to be vaccinated. Why would you demand China to do differently? China being a communist leading country does not mean China is expected to force its population. Unlike what the west is trying to portrait China to be, China is far from draconian. Just for comparison, many western countries used police, Gendarme and military to enforce lock-down in the city, China did not. China relied primarily on cooperation of the population. Once you overtly force the population against their will, you loose the willingness of the population to cooperate. You can only force a small part of population to comply when you have the majority behind your back. For the moment there is no such majority demand of mandating everybody to vaccinate.

A noble spirit. Let's leave them unvaccinated then, because I don't see them getting vaccinated anytime soon by their own will.

I am bookmarking your post and I will revisit it if we have any more serious lockdowns due to this noble spirit. Let's wait until the end of this year and the complete economic data are released

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The reason I even started this conversation was because I foresee more such catastrophic lockdowns coming up in the future. You cannot simply expect perfection in a 1.4 billion country. Sometime, somewhere, someone, will slip up which will inevitably lead to harmful lockdowns. I am happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see how there won't be any more lockdowns. And let's not forget that this Omicron variant is many times more contagious than past year's covid variants.

 

[Overbom]

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China must insist on a “dynamic zero-Covid” policy or risk disaster because of the low vaccination rate among the elderly and a lack of medical resources, according to the country’s top Covid-19 strategy official.

Addressing a media panel in Beijing on Friday, Liang Wannian, head of the expert panel leading the country’s Covid-19 response, said the policy was like “insurance for the 1.4 billion people”, given the dangers brought by the Omicron variant.

 

[KYli]

I just don't understand why some members are so upset over Shanghai lock down. What happened in Shanghai is not merely an issue of lock down but how a local government that isn't doing its jobs and blame everyone for its failures. Many other provinces and cities that have Omicron before Shanghai were able to contain the virus without such damage to the economy. It shows that China could still avoid major disturbance as long as the local government is up to the task.

Over the last two months, China was able to increase vaccination rate in many provinces and cities. Provinces such as Jiangxi, Anhui and Shandong have over 90% vaccination rate among people over 60. Provinces such as Chongqing, Henan, Hubei, Guizhou, Hebei, Sichuan and Yunnan have over 85% and close to 90% vaccination rate among people over 60. Beijing's vaccination rate among elderly has reached over 81%.

I am not against forced vaccination. I am just saying the vaccination campaign isn't as hopeless as some members here think it is. If China can achieve high vaccination rate and and boosted rate without forced vaccination, I think it is worth it to continue the lock down. In addition, I am not convinced the benefits of reopening is as great as some members think. Lastly, more competent local officials are doing a lot of good works to get elderly vaccinated and boosted in the last few months. Just give them a few months, China would have a good vaccination rate among elderly.

 

[taxiya]

A noble spirit. Let's leave them unvaccinated then, because I don't see them getting vaccinated anytime soon by their own will.

I am bookmarking your post and I will revisit it if we have any more serious lockdowns due to this noble spirit. Let's wait until the end of this year and the complete economic data are released

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It is not about being noble, but really the basics of social management.

It is the same as Chinese emperors ruling China, they did not really rule because of kindness, but because of the sense of the people's sentiment. When Li Shimin said "水可载舟，亦可覆舟给“ he meant the lesson of Sui Yangdi. Sui Yandi built the grand canal which was good for China in the long run, but caused unbearable burden to the population who toppled the Sui. Qin Shihuang built the great wall defending China from the Xiong Nu, but people revolted him. Han Wudi fought decades of war against Xiong Nu, without the war, we would not have been called "Han" Chinese today. But yet the war almost bankrupted the country, Han Wudi was smart enough not to make the same mistake as Qin Shihuang.

In all these examples, general population would not care about a long term good decision, they will revolt regardless just for the short term "good". In essence, an individual (like you) can be smart and mature, but the collection of individuals (the population) is as stupid as a spoiled child. Managing a country is like parenting a child.

The reason I even started this conversation was because I foresee more such catastrophic lockdowns coming up in the future. You cannot simply expect perfection in a 1.4 billion country. Sometime, somewhere, someone, will slip up which will inevitably lead to harmful lockdowns. I am happy to be proven wrong, but I just don't see how there won't be any more lockdowns. And let's not forget that this Omicron variant is many times more contagious than past year's covid variants.

For the moment, nobody knows how well the high vaccination and opening up strategy fare against the virus. The western countries are doing the experiment for China. Before that approach is proven to be effective to the point that China can accept, dynamic zero policy and lock-downs are the only choice for China. With this policy in place, mandating vaccination makes no difference. I have said before high vaccination rate is "counter productive" for spotting transmissions and containing it. So either you have everybody vaccinated and hand over your fate to vaccine beating the virus, or you do lock-downs. Vaccination does not eliminate NOR reduce the need for lock-down.