The big problem is this, there is no clear plan out.
It isn't that the central government doesn't want to formalize a plan for exit. It is just that whenever the central government was thinking about it, another variants emerge. In late 2020, some experts were already talking about relaxing the border policy. The central government put a halt to such suggestion and want to wait. Then we got Alpha and a few months later Delta. China was saved by being cautious.
The central government keeps patting themselves on the back for Covid-Zero, great, but what's next? What is the gameplan here? Covid-Zero forever?
After Delta, the central government was in a wait and see mode. That is waiting for other countries to reopen and see the results. We have many reopening that ended up pretty badly. Omicron is also another disaster for many countries even as it is relative mild compare with Alpha and Delta but way too contagious.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and South Korea have fared better than other countries when reopen with relative high vaccination rate and boosted. However, Hong Kong is a disaster that has reminded China its shortcomings of not having a high vaccination rate for elderly. Even South Korea, its hospitals were overwhelmed and run out of caskets.
The conclusion is China needed to vaccinate and boosted its elderly first before thinking of reopening.
You can't, not economically, not for mental health, not for any number of reasons.
Most Chinese have enjoyed much better freedom in the last two years from zero covid strategy than other countries. Most were able to travel freely and even to other provinces for vacation. I think there are a lot of crybabies that don't want to make any sacrifice and overemphasize the mental health angle. Economically, China has done well for the last two years. Omicron has made it much more costly to contain. However, the cost is still acceptable at the moment. In the long run, if China couldn't find a better to stamp out the virus, then it would be problematic. But a soft lock down like Shenzhen and Xian and Suzhou aren't that costly.
This is the main thing upsetting people (IMO). If the elderly vaccination rate is the concern, throw some incentives. I think there was a post like they are willing to give 500 RMB in some places. Do it! What are the targets? The government is usually great at setting goals and meeting them, but there is no clarity right now.
Every local governments have been overdrive to vaccinate elderly after what happened in HK. I already posted a few posts for this topic. Incentives probably wouldn't be enough. Fears would also be needed. If Shanghai deaths tolls rise, then expected more elderly got vaccinated. For the last two months, many places have vaccinated over 20% more of their elderly population which is a good progress.
The question is not necessarily having direct say in governance, if there is a common goal, the question is "how we can make things happen?"
The Western countries all failed to force their population to vaccinate. China is already doing much better than most. Unless, you wanted China to pass a law to force elderly to vaccinate.
People have legitimate questions about why the mRNA vaccines have not been approved yet, just be honest about it. Is it because they don't like mixing vaccines (a perfectly valid reason since they didn't even allow it until last month or something)? Instead there is silence.
First, China is always cautious about new medicine and vaccines. Second, the West is already considered to ban seeds export to Russia. If Russia can't find other sources, they would not be able to farm next year. Remember how Indians were begging other countries including China for raw materials to produce their vaccines.
Just look even domestic vaccines that rely upon other countries for raw materials were not approved yet. Besides, three doses of Sinovac and Sinopharm performed the same as two doses or three doses of mRNA vaccines which have been proven in HK study. So no need to import mRNA vaccines at the moment.
China is a victim of their own success right now... International students want to get back to study. Family overseas want to go back to visit (or have their relatives pay them a visit), both these groups are probably like "things aren't so bad anymore, China can handle it".
That isn't China primary concern. China's primary concern is the well being of its domestic citizens like any other countries.
Just to clarify this.
What I mean is that many Overseas relatives are probably telling their family back home that things are not so bad anymore wherever they are. So if the Chinese government was able to maintain such a strong response, they would trust them to be able to manage reopening in a beneficial manner. I hear this a lot anecdotally.
China doesn't have enough ICU beds or doctors. What happened in HK would be replicated in China in a 200 times scale especially for the rural areas. Higher vaccination rate would alleviate such issue but probably would still get its hospitals overwhelmed and turned away patients like Japan and South Korea did. I would bet that the West would have a field day when it happened.
