Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[KYli]

Didn't include that there are 3 deaths in Shanghai today.

The ability to test over 50 million would be the most powerful tool to fight Omicron.

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Xian and many other cities were not under full lock down but tight control.

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Omicron is contagious for 72 hours outside of body.

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Things are started to get back to normal in many parts of China.

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[T-U-P]

In the midst of Shanghai chaos people are forgetting that the Zero Covid strategy does NOT always require the complete shutting down of entire cities, even against Omicron. Shanghai is in this mess precisely because it failed the fundamentals of Zero Covid: early detection & early isolation. It simply didn't test enough in the 1st few days to catch enough close contacts, which allowed it to spread in multiple communities.

There are more than enough examples from how other cities that handled it better:
1) Shenzhen's 7 day city-wide shutdown, where people was able to WFH, restaurants (and even bubble tea shops) where open for mobile orders and delivery.

2) Suzhou had some Omicron spread mid-Feb, and did a soft lockdown. People encouraged to stay home, but could still go to work, factories were not shutdown at all during this. The soft lockdown lasted 3 weeks, and Suzhou was in the clear until cases from Shanghai spilled over. Even now Suzhou is only locking down travel between its districts, people can still go out and go around within your district and still go to work.

Many people come and tell me that Zero Covid does not work because Omicron cannot be contained. That's absolutely not true, but you do need very good planning and very good execution of these plans.

 

[Botnet]

I hope Li Qiang and his garden gnomes don't get let off the hook for this. What a shitshow.

 

[OppositeDay]

I hope Li Qiang and his garden gnomes don't get let off the hook for this. What a shitshow.

There's little chance he will be demoted. At worst this will cost Li his chance at a PBSC seat later this year. I find the rumors that he was in the running for premiership to be highly unlikely to begin with.

 

[Han Patriot]

Didn't include that there are 3 deaths in Shanghai today.

The ability to test over 50 million would be the most powerful tool to fight Omicron.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Xian and many other cities were not under full lock down but tight control.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Omicron is contagious for 72 hours outside of body.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Things are started to get back to normal in many parts of China.

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I am in Shanghai now. 15% of the city is open, fresh food is an issue, restaurant delivery food is not though. Dried food like rice, froxen meat is okay. My wife wakes up at 6am to buy from dingdongmaicai, so far it's okay but slow. So overall, I don't think food is an issue, now it is officially day 18, I think by end of next week we can see the results. I think Shanghai had been too complacent and relazed for the past two years. This was actually my first lockdown, first 2 weeks was okay and relaxing, 3rd week is kinda bored now. lol

 

[Han Patriot]

In the midst of Shanghai chaos people are forgetting that the Zero Covid strategy does NOT always require the complete shutting down of entire cities, even against Omicron. Shanghai is in this mess precisely because it failed the fundamentals of Zero Covid: early detection & early isolation. It simply didn't test enough in the 1st few days to catch enough close contacts, which allowed it to spread in multiple communities.

There are more than enough examples from how other cities that handled it better:
1) Shenzhen's 7 day city-wide shutdown, where people was able to WFH, restaurants (and even bubble tea shops) where open for mobile orders and delivery.

2) Suzhou had some Omicron spread mid-Feb, and did a soft lockdown. People encouraged to stay home, but could still go to work, factories were not shutdown at all during this. The soft lockdown lasted 3 weeks, and Suzhou was in the clear until cases from Shanghai spilled over. Even now Suzhou is only locking down travel between its districts, people can still go out and go around within your district and still go to work.

Many people come and tell me that Zero Covid does not work because Omicron cannot be contained. That's absolutely not true, but you do need very good planning and very good execution of these plans.

overall I think the Shanghai government overreacted because they did not maintain strict vigilance consistently.

 

[Han Patriot]

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本土病例2723例 new symptomatic cases (Shanghai 上海2417例 and Jilin 吉林166)
本土20639例 new asymptomatic cases (Shanghai 上海19831例 and Jilin 吉林376例)
3 deaths in Shanghai

yup i heard it take 5 days for omicron to clear the infectivity. Not sure, but Shanghai had been too hesistant to lock down some areas early on, and this got out of hand, if they had clsoed down some areas, it would have been good. we had 2 years of blissful life in Shanghai until now

 

[KYli]

yup i heard it take 5 days for omicron to clear the infectivity. Not sure, but Shanghai had been too hesistant to lock down some areas early on, and this got out of hand, if they had clsoed down some areas, it would have been good. we had 2 years of blissful life in Shanghai until now

If Shanghai has been locked down 10 to 14 days earlier, then probably a 7 days lock down would be more than enough to contain the virus. I think a lack of mass testing like Shenzhen also plays a role. As the Shanghai government was not given the most updated data to make a sound and timely decision. Complacency causes accidents. A successful two years of Shanghai precision approach has given the Shanghai a false sense of security and confident.

 

[TheFoozyOne]

yup i heard it take 5 days for omicron to clear the infectivity. Not sure, but Shanghai had been too hesistant to lock down some areas early on, and this got out of hand, if they had clsoed down some areas, it would have been good. we had 2 years of blissful life in Shanghai until now

The problem is not zero covid policy itself, but its implementation in Shanghai: the delay and the unpreparedness of it.

For some reason many Chinese/Shanghai people don’t seem to understand this on Weibo. They say covid is just a flu and the lockdown caused more indirect deaths than covid itself and more economic damage. However they always seem to forget:

1. There are 500k excess deaths per year in 2020 and 2021 in the US. This is due to covid itself and an overwhelmed healthcare system. People who think lockdowns causing more deaths due to the occasional treatment delays fail to realize an overwhelmed healthcare system is similar if not worse. Especially in China where there is 10x less ICU beds per 100k population than the US (3 vs 30). Also Chinese people visit hospitals for literally anything, even just a flu…

2. Zero covid policy was implemented adequately elsewhere in China and it has worked for China for over two years. Shanghai’s outbreak got out of hand especially because they didn’t implement it to the letter and didn’t act early.

3. China with its zero covid policy was able to enjoy normal economic activity for two years while the West with the half assed measures and/or coexistence strategy was still hit hard by economic hardships.

In sum, short term pain for long term gain is China’s strategy. Until China increases its vaccination rates among its elderly population and a very effective drug against covid comes out, this will remain the strategy.

The US currently has 300 deaths per 100k population due to covid, translated to China’s population it would be 4 million deaths, that’s without taking into account China’s less equipped healthcare system which may increase the number even more.

 

[supersnoop]

The problem is not zero covid policy itself, but its implementation in Shanghai: the delay and the unpreparedness of it.

For some reason many Chinese/Shanghai people don’t seem to understand this on Weibo. They say covid is just a flu and the lockdown caused more indirect deaths than covid itself and more economic damage. However they always seem to forget:

1. There are 500k excess deaths per year in 2020 and 2021 in the US. This is due to covid itself and an overwhelmed healthcare system. People who think lockdowns causing more deaths due to the occasional treatment delays fail to realize an overwhelmed healthcare system is similar if not worse. Especially in China where there is 10x less ICU beds per 100k population than the US (3 vs 30). Also Chinese people visit hospitals for literally anything, even just a flu…

2. Zero covid policy was implemented adequately elsewhere in China and it has worked for China for over two years. Shanghai’s outbreak got out of hand especially because they didn’t implement it to the letter and didn’t act early.

3. China with its zero covid policy was able to enjoy normal economic activity for two years while the West with the half assed measures and/or coexistence strategy was still hit hard by economic hardships.

In sum, short term pain for long term gain is China’s strategy. Until China increases its vaccination rates among its elderly population and a very effective drug against covid comes out, this will remain the strategy.

The US currently has 300 deaths per 100k population due to covid, translated to China’s population it would be 4 million deaths, that’s without taking into account China’s less equipped healthcare system which may increase the number even more.

The big problem is this, there is no clear plan out.

The central government keeps patting themselves on the back for Covid-Zero, great, but what's next? What is the gameplan here? Covid-Zero forever? You can't, not economically, not for mental health, not for any number of reasons.

This is the main thing upsetting people (IMO). If the elderly vaccination rate is the concern, throw some incentives. I think there was a post like they are willing to give 500 RMB in some places. Do it! What are the targets? The government is usually great at setting goals and meeting them, but there is no clarity right now. The question is not necessarily having direct say in governance, if there is a common goal, the question is "how we can make things happen?" People have legitimate questions about why the mRNA vaccines have not been approved yet, just be honest about it. Is it because they don't like mixing vaccines (a perfectly valid reason since they didn't even allow it until last month or something)? Instead there is silence.

China is a victim of their own success right now... International students want to get back to study. Family overseas want to go back to visit (or have their relatives pay them a visit), both these groups are probably like "things aren't so bad anymore, China can handle it".