Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[SinoSoldier]

I have a background in epidemiology. Here is my crude estimates:

In China, 200,620 people die annually due to influenza-associated infection (Rate:

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, r0 1-2), which is high due to relatively low

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influenza vaccination rate in China.

If Omicron is

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than seasonal influenza, then we can expect 280,868 people die annually from Omnicron.

However, Omnicron is 3-5 times more contagious than influenza, so 3-5 times more people can potentially be exposed and die. Omnicron has r(0) of 7-10, compared to influenza r(0) 1-2.

However, +90% of Chinese population is fully vaccinated, which should lower the risk of Omnicron death to be similar to influenza or even lower.

Taking this all into account, the lower bound is 300,000, and upper bound is 1.4 million deaths, but in reality, the death rate is more closer to potentially 800,000 when taking into account high vaccination rate, but also taking into account higher Omicron contagiousness.

TLDR: For Omnicron, I estimate between 300,000 to 1.4 million deaths, reality maybe closer to 800,000 annually when taking into account high vaccination rate and Omnicron higher infectivity.

Data from England suggests that the combination of the vaccine and Omicron brings its fatality rate to ~0.035% compared to influenza's rate of 0.04%. You would be correct that the main concern is the higher reproduction number of Omicron. This doesn't negate my point; even if we assume that zero public health measures are implemented other than vaccination, we could expect ~800K to 1M deaths annually throughout the entire country (a population of ~1.4 billion people mind you). We would expect this number to decrease with basic, non-repressive measures such as indoor mask mandates and some capacity restrictions on venues, no?

So why is it acceptable for people to have themselves locked up in their own homes, be deprived of the basic travel necessary to obtain food/medications/etc., to achieve what is arguably a miniscule reduction in case load? Anyone can see that the restrictions are doing their citizens far more collective harm than Omicron ever could.

 

[KYli]

I just learned that my brothers wifes grandmother died a few days ago from Covid. She was 107yrs old and lived in a Hongkong old folks home. She had to go to a HK hospital for kidney treatment the week before and caught covid while there.
My brother and his wifes parents are over in HK for the funeral. I hope they don't catch covid while there. My brother accompanied them as they both are in their 80s.
Personally I think it is a bit risky going to HK at such an age.

The worst is over in HK for now. Hong Kong has only recorded a few hundreds cases per day. So if they are careful, then they should be fine. My grandmother passed away at the age of 99 a year ago, not covid. But due to the travel ban at that time, my mom was not able to visit and attend the funeral. So I understand why they would travel to HK even though it is risky. Hopefully, everything turns out fine.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

A better question is, how do the citizens of Shanghai/China feel about having no influence over these decisions or even a voice to be heard?

No, it's not a better question. The better question is what does an Indian troll pretending to be Taiwanese and pretending to care about the citizens of Shanghai think he's accomplishing beyond annoying people here. China is not going to be a failure like the West, and it certainly won't be an utter failure like India.

Data from England suggests

Data from England doesn't matter. England is a failure.

 

[SinoSoldier]

That's a lie. Hong Kong has 9000 deaths due to Omicron already. A simple math would get you 9000 X 200 = 1.8 million deaths. Hong Kong uses predominantly Pfizer.


Another lie. Other countries have demonstrated opening up would result in many deaths. South Korea which has not fully opened up has already 14,000 more deaths only for a few months. And South Korea is using your so called godsend Pfizer and Moderna with very high boosted rate. 14,000 X 30 = 420,000 just for three months.

Using this standalone data provides a very narrowed perception of this situation. HK's vaccination rate hovers at ~50-60 percent, with its older population having very low rates (its 80+ population has merely a ~18% vaccination rate) which will undoubtedly contribute to its mortality rate. Do note that HK's daily death rate has seen a dramatic decrease in recent days, as would be expected as the population gains natural immunity to the Omicron variant.

South Korea's daily fatality rate stands at ~200, lower than that of the United States and higher than that of Canada, which also speaks to the varied nature of using nothing but death counts as a marker of COVID policy success.

Nobody expects zero increase in case or death counts as society loosens restrictions, but the data so far does not suggest that doing so will result in the same catastrophic overload of health care resources as was the case in early 2020.

 

[zgx09t]

A better question is, how do the citizens of Shanghai/China feel about having no influence over these decisions or even a voice to be heard?

That's the illusion and deceit of western democracies, believing any single individuals' advocacy and interest reigns supreme and truly counted in a vote. What a load of crap, actually, if you stand back and observe what are actually happening in the real world. There's no single accountable faithful steward of general public interest in any of the western democracies , a shining example would be as in current Covid public health crisis in US where a million died, FFS a million, like in a Ethiopian famine. Anybody here can add in all the ailments in your shining system. Democratic partisan systems, based on elections and a single vote, do not necessarily align with general public interests most of the time, as the system sits at the national level, while people lives at local level. National system depends on being a partisan adversarial format, where saying and doing things to prevent your party and candidates losing to your opposition is seen as a top priority, not serving the real public interests, except paying lip service. Partisan adversarial democracies rot at local level, one city at a time, starting from zoning laws, property taxation, policing, lobby business, etc. So take your manufactured rights and fake voice preaching down a notch.

 

[SinoSoldier]

No, it's not a better question. The better question is what does an Indian troll pretending to be Taiwanese and pretending to care about the citizens of Shanghai think he's accomplishing beyond annoying people here. China is not going to be a failure like the West, and it certainly won't be an utter failure like India.

Data from England doesn't matter. England is a failure.

An insightful contribution from the Canadian who believes he's doing Chinese netizens a favor by dispensing himself of all logical thought processes and sucking up to the CCP harder than their citizens do themselves. Keep it up.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

An insightful contribution from the Canadian who believes he's doing Chinese netizens a favor by dispensing himself of all logical thought processes and sucking up to the CCP harder than their citizens do themselves. Keep it up.

I know you have a deep-seated, burning desire to see China fail. It isn't going to happen.

 

[SinoSoldier]

I know you have a deep-seated, burning desire to see China fail. It isn't going to happen.

If I did, I'd just pray that you would be in charge of China's COVID policy.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If I did, I'd just pray that you would be in charge of China's COVID policy.

I wouldn't be in charge of China's COVID policy because I'm not an expert. China is unique in having experts in charge of its COVID policy while the West and their followers have stupid demagogues in charge. That's why China is a success and they are failures. That's why China will always be a success and they will always be failures.

 

[KYli]

Data from England suggests that the combination of the vaccine and Omicron brings its fatality rate to ~0.035% compared to influenza's rate of 0.04%. You would be correct that the main concern is the higher reproduction number of Omicron. This doesn't negate my point; even if we assume that zero public health measures are implemented other than vaccination, we could expect ~800K to 1M deaths annually throughout the entire country (a population of ~1.4 billion people mind you). We would expect this number to decrease with basic, non-repressive measures such as indoor mask mandates and some capacity restrictions on venues, no?

So why is it acceptable for people to have themselves locked up in their own homes, be deprived of the basic travel necessary to obtain food/medications/etc., to achieve what is arguably a miniscule reduction in case load? Anyone can see that the restrictions are doing their citizens far more collective harm than Omicron ever could.

Data from the UK is useless. UK is a complete failure when it comes to covid. As one of the highest mortality among all EU nations, the UK should be ashamed to be called a first world nation. UK already has 170,000 deaths and that is 0.25% of population. If 0.25% applies to China, then we are talking about 3.5 millions death.

Beside, you are still dying at the rate of 200 per day which means 72,000 more deaths per year which is 0.1% of population. If 0.1% applies to China, then it would be 1.4 million deaths. So you have nothing to brag about except shame.

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Using this standalone data provides a very narrowed perception of this situation. HK's vaccination rate hovers at ~50-60 percent, with its older population having very low rates (its 80+ population has merely a ~18% vaccination rate) which will undoubtedly contribute to its mortality rate. Do note that HK's daily death rate has seen a dramatic decrease in recent days, as would be expected as the population gains natural immunity to the Omicron variant.

Can you stop talking about something you have no idea about? Hong Kong vaccination rate was around 65% in early Feb. Of course, daily death rate would decrease after 9000 deaths which is 0.12% of Hong Kong population. Do you know how many deaths if 0.12% would happen to China. That is 1.68 million deaths.

Besides, your sicko media and people from the West went overdrive to celebrate and decry Hong Kong's failure. The same sicko media and people that now decry about China lock down which is an attempt to save lives.

South Korea's daily fatality rate stands at ~200, lower than that of the United States and higher than that of Canada, which also speaks to the varied nature of using nothing but death counts as a marker of COVID policy success.

Nobody expects zero increase in case or death counts as society loosens restrictions, but the data so far does not suggest that doing so will result in the same catastrophic overload of health care resources as was the case in early 2020.

Does it matter? Within 3 months even before fully reopen, South Korea has over 15,000 covid deaths. That means China needs to have 90% vaccination rate and 60% boosted to lower the deaths from 1.68 million to 450,000.

I am not saying China shouldn't reopen if vaccination rate is high enough and more tools are available. I am saying that covid isn't a flu. Don't try to justify your country's failure to call covid just a flu. What the Chinese government is doing is perfectly legitimate and reasonable and responsible.