Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[tokenanalyst]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512974880463114241

It's time to end the lockdowns. At this rate, they're doing more societal, economic, and personal harm than good, and you bet it will be politicized.

I ABSOLUTELY HATE THAT GUY. For one hand he is always screaming out of his lung "OMG, COVID BAD" but when China do the right thing trying to contain COVID then he do a 180 and say "China is bad for trying to contain COVID", he is an idiot.
But that is the problem that the Chinese government is facing "every single COVID death" will be linked to the Chinese government whatever is true or not, lets suppose 300K in a wave, the media will smear every single one of those deaths as government failure. In order for China to end the covid zero strategy the government will have to make every COVID data a state secret and accuse of treason anyone leaking data to the western media or any western institutions.

In other to end the COVID pandemic you will have to end talking about COVID. Virus variants will still kill probably hundred of thousands every year but we will pretend that virus doesn't exist anymore and we will shame anyone trying to talk about this virus. A big elephant in the room that everyone will just ignore.

 

[OppositeDay]

One problem with a covid zero approach is as long as people expect the policy to stay it disincentivizes vaccination. Working age population can be pressured to vaccinate by their workplace, but retirees can't be. I have been trying get my elder relatives vaccinated but that's just impossible if they feel the slightest unwell. And who can blame them? They feel the chances for them to get covid is zero so why take the risk?

Announce a firm end date for zero covid and an end date to free (0% copay) covid treatment and watch the elderly vaccination rates skyrocketing.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Shanghai's current round of epidemic spread index dropped to 1.23, the interpretation is here​

On April 15, Sun Chunlan, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Vice Premier of the State Council, revealed in an interview with CCTV that the spread of the current round of the epidemic in Shanghai has dropped from 2.27 to 1.23 now, and the goal of achieving social zero as soon as possible is just around the corner. She said that Omikron spreads rapidly, and vulnerable groups are still at great risk after being infected, so it is still necessary to speed up the prevention and control and win this annihilation battle as soon as possible.

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Remember that Omicron R0 is 10.

 

[Phead128]

You're not going to end up with 1-2 million dead by opening up the economy when the Omicron variant is the predominant strain.

I have a background in epidemiology. Here is my crude estimates:

In China, 200,620 people die annually due to influenza-associated infection (Rate:

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, r0 1-2), which is high due to relatively low

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influenza vaccination rate in China.

If Omicron is

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than seasonal influenza, then we can expect 280,868 people die annually from Omnicron.

However, Omnicron is 3-5 times more contagious than influenza, so 3-5 times more people can potentially be exposed and die. Omnicron has r(0) of 7-10, compared to influenza r(0) 1-2.

However, +90% of Chinese population is fully vaccinated, which should lower the risk of Omnicron death to be similar to influenza or even lower.

Taking this all into account, the lower bound is 300,000, and upper bound is 1.4 million deaths, but in reality, the death rate is more closer to potentially 800,000 when taking into account high vaccination rate, but also taking into account higher Omicron contagiousness.

TLDR: For Omnicron, I estimate between 300,000 to 1.4 million deaths, reality maybe closer to 800,000 annually when taking into account high vaccination rate and Omnicron higher infectivity.

 

[tokenanalyst]

I have a background in epidemiology. Here is my crude estimates:

In China, 200,620 people die annually due to influenza-associated infection (Rate:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, r0 1-2), which is high due to relatively low

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

influenza vaccination rate in China.

If Omicron is

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

than seasonal influenza, then we can expect 280,868 people die annually from Omnicron.

However, Omnicron is 3-5 times more contagious than influenza, so 3-5 times more people can potentially be exposed and die. Omnicron has r(0) of 7-10, compared to influenza r(0) 1-2.

However, +90% of Chinese population is fully vaccinated, which should lower the risk of Omnicron death to be similar to influenza or even lower.

Taking this all into account, the lower bound is 300,000, and upper bound is 1.4 million deaths, but in reality, the death rate is more closer to potentially 800,000 when taking into account high vaccination rate, but also taking into account higher Omicron contagiousness.

TLDR: For Omnicron, I estimate between 300,000 to 1.4 million deaths, reality maybe closer to 800,000 annually when taking into account high vaccination rate and Omnicron higher infectivity.

I think 300K in a single big wave is not a bad estimate.

 

[s002wjh]

How about a million years? I always find MSM and some Westerners seem to view things as black and white. It is a good way to depict China as inflexible.

China already said they are waiting for better treatments, vaccines, and understanding of the virus. One thing they are looking at is contagious of the virus and the concern that hospitals would be overwhelmed. So they are looking for new vaccines that have good efficacy rate.

the issue with that is there will likely another variants, just like flu, each season ppl get a shot. its never ending of mutation, transmission. ppl just have to live with the flu. at some point the virus may have lower fatality rate. its playing catch with constant mutation and dominated strain.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

the issue with that is there will likely another variants, just like flu, each season ppl get a shot. its never ending of mutation, transmission. ppl just have to live with the flu. at some point the virus may have lower fatality rate. its playing catch with constant mutation and dominated strain.

Not only shots but also various over the counter medicines and the lack of fear of getting crippled. Yes, in my opinion, we’ll have to live with it, but the conditions to do so are certainly not met. Shanghai’s f**kup is more or less due to the local government’s failure to contain it and the unwillingness of the central government to purge and replace those who allowed it to happen. Compared to the other city officials that got fired due to their disastrous handling of the outbreak in their cities and despite the leaks that have been coming out from that city, Shanghai’s officials got off way too lightly, and I have no idea why.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512974880463114241

It's time to end the lockdowns. At this rate, they're doing more societal, economic, and personal harm than good, and you bet it will be politicized.

How does it feel to know that neither you nor him have any influence whatsoever on the Chinese government's decision-making? I'm not even talking minuscule influence, I'm talking absolute zero influence.

 

[KYli]

China usually only punished low level government official during the crisis. For high ranking officials, any punishment would only be announced after the crisis is over.

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本土病例3504例 new symptomatic cases (Shanghai 上海3238例 and Jilin 吉林167)
本土22512例 new asymptomatic cases (Shanghai 上海21582例 and Jilin 吉林525例)

 

[KYli]

the issue with that is there will likely another variants, just like flu, each season ppl get a shot. its never ending of mutation, transmission. ppl just have to live with the flu. at some point the virus may have lower fatality rate. its playing catch with constant mutation and dominated strain.

But China can choose when to live with it. At the moment, it isn't the ideal time to do it. Variants or not, China needs to vaccinate its elderly in order to lower hospitalizations and deaths. That is the first criteria to reopen. In addition, people are gambling that covid 19 would further evolve to become even less deadly. That's just a wish nothing guarantee that it would happen. So the reopening should be delayed as late as possible to minimize the risk of more deadly variant emerged.

Ideally, vaccines should prevent infections or at least lower it. However, Omicron has rendered vaccines ineffective. Omicron also has rendered most antibodies therapy ineffective. That means there is very little tools to fight Omicron except a few new drugs that needed further test. China is working on Omicron vaccines, Omicron antibodies therapy and new drugs for Omicron. That means China is buying more time through lock down to get its more ready and lower the mortality rate if and when reopen is desired or necessary.