solarz
Brigadier
Is there an actual source for this? From everything I've read, Shanghai uses the same criteria for asymptomatics.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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Is there an actual source for this? From everything I've read, Shanghai uses the same criteria for asymptomatics.
By David Stanway
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Shanghai's unusually high proportion of asymptomatic cases among its reported COVID-19 infections could be partly explained by blurred lines between "mildly symptomatic" and asymptomatic cases.
Authorities in China's financial centre ordered a lockdown in response to the worst outbreak in the country since the virus first emerged in Wuhan in late 2019.
Shanghai counted more than 20,000 new cases on April 7, but the asymptomatic rate has stood at around 97%, far higher than anywhere else in the world, where it has been closer to 50%.
Fu Chen, head of the municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a written reply to Reuters' questions that Shanghai's rapid surveillance testing was contributing to the big asymptomatic numbers by catching infections earlier.
He also said high vaccination rates were also having an impact, as vaccinated people are less likely to show symptoms.
Fu did not say directly that Shanghai was using less strict diagnostic criteria, but he did suggest the numbers in the rest of China would be comparable if "mildly symptomatic" cases were included in the asymptomatic tally.
"Recently, a press conference of the State Council's joint prevention and control mechanism also said that the proportion of mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in hospitals across the country exceeds 95%," Fu noted.
The city government did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Shanghai uses different diagnostic standards compared to elsewhere.
Asymptomatic cases in China are defined as those that test positive for coronavirus but have no "relevant" clinical manifestations, Fu said.
The national guidelines define asymptomatic cases as those testing positive but showing no clinical symptoms like fever, and no signs of COVID in their lungs, as determined by a CT scan.
Asymptomatic cases are reclassified if symptoms appear later.
"Mildly symptomatic" cases are those that show light symptoms but no signs of pneumonia after a chest scan.
The national standards say that determining an asymptomatic case requires a chest scan, which would put Shanghai's medical system under immense pressure given the scale of the current outbreak. It is unclear how many asymptomatic cases in Shanghai or elsewhere underwent lung CT scans.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told Reuters it would be "absolutely crazy" for anywhere to scan everybody who tested positive.
In Jilin province in China's northeast, site of another major outbreak, asymptomatic cases have accounted for less than half of reported infections, though the figure has been increasing steadily to around 60% in recent days.
But according to Reuters calculations, if Jilin's mildly symptomatic cases are added to the asymptomatic tally, the share would rise to more than 96% - similar to Shanghai's asymptomatic numbers.
Unlike other countries, China counts asymptomatic cases separately, even though all COVID-positive cases are isolated in central quarantine facilities, whether they show symptoms or not.
'IRRESPONSIBLE'
Chinese netizens have accused Shanghai of putting mildly symptomatic cases in the asymptomatic column in order to allay public concerns about the potency of the highly transmissible Omicron variant. The city had initially used a more surgical approach to curbing infections in hopes of avoiding heavier measures.
"Shanghai's definition of 'asymptomatic' ... has not only rendered national statistics meaningless but it has also rendered the delineation of risk zones meaningless," said one Weibo user writing under the user name Chairman Rabbit.
Overseas experts also remain sceptical, with university of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm saying the ratio "just does not make any biologic sense at all."
"At this point I just challenge the authenticity of data."
Fu said Shanghai's high proportion of asymptomatic cases also reflected the reduced potency of the Omicron, and he said most cases involved relatively young, more resilient, people, who were more likely to have been vaccinated.
He noted that 22 million residents had already received two jabs and more than 11 million had boosters, making them less vulnerable to illness.
"Mass immunity is getting stronger," he said.
Shanghai has not announced any deaths. Only Jilin has announced two deaths. I don't think China mortality rate has any meaningful use as it is using every medical resources available to keep covid patients alive which isn't possible if cases keep going up.
If Chinese economy goes into recession to save our elders then so be it. Enjoy stagflation in that case. Pray that China succeeds on its terms or you'll be praying for yourself next.
solarz
Brigadier
I'd like to see an official source, the above article is just a bunch of suppositions and hearsay.
The thing is that even the elders are not usually dying from Omicron and this is no conspiracy. I mean my whole family got this Omicron and they never had fever over 38C, the grandma is like 90 with a weak respiratory system, nothing serious. The cost is high both regarding the economy but also the social effects, Covid is so 2020. Of course someone very old in combination with other comorbidities can die, we have dead people every day in Europe but life is life and people do die in the end, especially when you are over 90 with progressed cancer.
I think that the Chinese authorities did definitely the right thing 2 years ago with the strict lockdowns, Covid Alpha and Delta were very serious but not Omicron, I am surprised that it did that much damage in HK regarding deaths and I would be interested to see the statistics, ages/vaccination/comorbidities. I guess that vaccination was low or maybe boosted long ago?
Having and studying the HK data I believe the Chinese authorities will relax the measures. My opinion is that they just need to make vaccination mandatory for everyone over 60 and let is spread with vaccination renewals on certain time intervals. Summer is actually better to do it because it's not the best season for viruses to spread. This will be also very bullish both for the Chinese economy and the rest of the world.
Btw, of course the West is going to suffer with any issues arising on the Chinese economy or logistics but I don't consider this a good thing, on the contrary.
The problem is not just the mortality rate, rabies has a mortality rate of 100% and we don't close cities because a dog has rabies, the real problem is how fast this virus infect people is like 10 times faster than the flu, you could have a dense city like Shanghai (25,000,000) infected in a single month and with so many people infected will inevitable hit vulnerable people that will rush to the hospitals gasping for air and die waiting for ventilators, people that would have survived if hospitals wouldn't have been overwhelmed with patients. The CFR is very very low but with so many people infected in very short amount of time will lead to many not getting medical attention, that could increase the CFR.
Like I say before the government could let the entire city get infected and isolate it from the rest of China, if they are not willing to sacrifice themselves for the rest of China like many other cities did for them, in my opinion they can continue with their lives. But lets be clear China will have to ramp up their censorship to the maximum and give long jail time to anyone who leak any information about the situation on the ground to avoid the crappy Western media go ballistic in fear mongering.
You need to ask Shanghai government for explanation. When other provinces have 50/50 or 60/40 But Shanghai has 97% asymptomatic cases, then it's good enough for me to say that Shanghai has different criteria. Especially, I have talked to a few people from Shanghai that said the same thing. I don't see why I should doubt them that when there's overwhelm evidence to support it.
Let just put an end to conspiracy theory that covid is just a cold first. US has over 500,000 additional deaths both in 2020 and 2021 compare with 2019.
Now we look into Omicron to see what kind of mortality rate it has. From Hong Kong study, we can conclude that without vaccines, the mortality rate for Omicron is 2.87%.
Now we look into mortality rate after high vaccination rate and boosted. After 86% vaccination rate and 63% boosted rate, South Korea should be golden. However, mortality rate is still 0.13%. Since it is so contagious, the excess deaths are very high. So tell me, If Omicron is just a cold, why it only takes 2 days or two weeks(if it took the highest estimate of flu deaths) for Omicron to have as many deaths as flu for a full year.
The increase in extra deaths was particularly stark in older people. At the height of a post-reopening hospital bed crisis in last December, excess mortality rate rose by 18 percent in people ages 65-84 and by 21 percent in those older compared to the three-year average number of deaths from the same month in 2018-2020.
In the last decade the winter flu at its worst killed about 720 people a year, according to Statistics Korea data. Kim, who headed the national influenza centers from 1991 to 2001, said the true figure is probably closer to 2,000 to 3,000. Still, in just the two weeks from March 8-21, omicron managed to kill 3,661 people.
As deaths pile up, crematoriums and funeral homes across the country are struggling to keep pace. According to the Health Ministry, in the first two weeks of March an average of 1,100 bodies were cremated each day, which is about 391 higher than the three-year daily average of 719 in the same month in 2018-2020. The unprecedented rise in the deceased awaiting cremation led to the Health Ministry ordering public crematories on March 16 to extend their operating hours.
“From how I see it, nothing justifies 300 to 400 people dying every day with morgues running out of space for bodies. The worst part is we don’t know if this is going to be the last of the virus,” Kim of Korea University said.
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