Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[SanWenYu]

Let me put it this way, the relative that told me never had any problems getting a bed in Shanghai tier-one hospitals.

Sorry, I am not following. You were saying that your relative never had any problems getting a bed in Shanghai's tier-one hospital, correct? But why is this a proof of Shanghai's covert foul play on covid numbers? I don't see the connection here.

It's also consistent with what I have read on Chinese social media. It also fits SH government's effort to downplay the seriousness of this outbreak. From a PR standpoint, asymptomatic case numbers are not viewed as threatening as symptomatic numbers.

But all these are speculations by you.

AFAIK, SH government has not even declared any high-risk covid areas in shanghai whereas other cities had declared high-risk areas when their reported case numbers were far lower.

If their case numbers are truthful, there is no problem for Shanghai to not declare any high risk areas.

So before you can blame Shanghai for not declaring any high-risk areas, you have to prove with factual evidenace that Shanghai's covid case numbers are false.

 

[KYli]

But this is not "Chinese CDC refuted Shanghai".

And what you highlighed is the SCMP story writer's own speculation that Gao was aiming at Zhang Wenhong. I am not saying if Gao was in fact taking on Zhang or not. Just pointing out that it's a speculation by SCMP, not a known fact.

Even if Gao's article was refuting Zhang, that was more than 6 months ago. I don't see it relevant to the situation now. It is an overstrech to use a comment by Zhang to show how the local authorities in Shanghai were covertly trying to lax the dynamic zero policy. Even as a member of the medical and scientific specialist team to provide expert advices on covid to the local authorities, Zhang does not dictate how the city deals with the pandemic.

Last but not the least, I feel that that particular comment by Zhang was quoted out of context or even distorted on purpose. I cannot find the original report on what he said exactly. This editor opinion on his comment might help to understand he actually meant.

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At that time there are a lot of discussions of living with covid. Zhang and Shanghai have been most supportive of such policies That is why you have someone in the central government to come out and refute such policies. I don't think you understand how much pressure the central government and local government are under from foreign businesses and interests and government and overseas students and workers to abandon its strict policies. Just look at how much pressure Carrie Lam were under from foreign businesses, government and her own experts to live with covid.

A former Chinese health minister Gao Qiang would not write an article to a government publication to refute someone in Shanghai if it didn't have the blessing from the top. Even Zhong Nanshan spoke out against living with covid.

Beside, you just have someone in Shanghai government recorded and leaked a tape that complaining about the central government policies. And claimed that it is the central government fault that Shanghai couldn't abandon the zero tolerance policy. That covid isn't serious and just like a cold. That Shanghai should live with the virus.

From what you've said, that would mean that all cases classified as symptomatic are those having lung infections confirmed by a CT scan, which would mean that all symptomatic cases would be at the serious stage requiring hospitalization.

The way I see it, considering the number of the symptomatic against the asymptomatic, that would be too huge a percentage of the infected having serious illness.

A lung infection isn't mean serious. It is saying that person has pneumonia. The outbreak in Tianjin 42% of cases have pneumonia.

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42 percent of the infections are classified as general cases who have had pneumonia.

 

[texx1]

Sorry, I am not following. You were saying that your relative never had any problems getting a bed in Shanghai's tier-one hospital, correct? But why is this a proof of Shanghai's covert foul play on covid numbers? I don't see the connection here.


But all these are speculations by you.

It's usually difficult to get a bed in a good hospital in Shanghai due to high number of patients. Since he never had any problems, I think he might know doctors. I am not saying SH government is falsifying numbers. I think the overall number is true, local government might be playing around with the asymptomatic and symptomatic numbers to make itself look better. For example, SH has 1000 covid positive cases, but the local government decides to classify 800 of them as asymptomatic and 200 symptomatic instead of 50/50. Afterall ratio of SH's asym/sym has been a noted outlier compared to other provinces.

If their case numbers are truthful, there is no problem for Shanghai to not declare any high risk areas.

So before you can blame Shanghai for not declaring any high-risk areas, you have to prove with factual evidenace that Shanghai's covid case numbers are false.

Shanghai has the highest active reported covid numbers in China, a situation so bad that PLA just got involved. Yet Shanghai doesn't have any high risk areas just middle risk areas. When Fujian reported 9 symptomatic and 179 asymptomatic cases (8/176 in Quanzhou) on March 27, its government declared a high risk area in Quanzhou. Does the lack of high risk areas in Shanghai make sense?

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[KYli]

TCM isn't Pfizer pill alternatives but they can be taken together to have better results. It is never one nor the other. It is what work the best or what work the best together.

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[SanWenYu]

At that time there are a lot of discussions of living with covid. Zhang and Shanghai have been most supportive of such policies That is why you have someone in the central government to come out and refute such policies.

You are overreading it. In mainland, it's not uncommon to have open debate in public. The CPC and central government do not orchestrate anything and everything on media. Otherwise there would have not been any 公知 (the known dissenters in public).

Gao was a retiree. He is not "in the central government". Zhang, as I said, was not speaking on behalf of the Shanghai local authorities.

If the central government wanted to give Shanghai a lecture, it would not use Gao as it would not be effective. A former minister of public health and retired for 15 years, Gao does not carry much weight. He was not even a member of CPC's central committee. If the high ranks of Shanghai locals wanted to subotage the zero-tolerance policy do you really think they would give a shit about what Gao says?

I have to see evidence that Zhang and Shanghai have been most supportive of living with covid.

I don't think you understand how much pressure the central government and local government are under from foreign businesses and interests and government and overseas students and workers to abandon its strict policies. Just look at how much pressure Carrie Lam were under from foreign businesses, government and her own experts to live with covid.

Trust me, I know. I have friends and family members in and out of mainland who were, and some still are, in the tourist business. They want to get back to normal more than anyone else.

I also posted Chinese economic stats data in the Chinese Economic News thread showing how bad the service sectors are underperforming still.

Do I qualify?

A former Chinese health minister Gao Qiang would not write an article to a government publication to refute someone in Shanghai if it didn't have the blessing from the top. Even Zhong Nanshan spoke out against living with covid.

Sure they have spoken against living with covid. But their speech and opinions are not the evidence that nail down the Shanghai authorities for what they are alleged for.

Beside, you just have someone in Shanghai government recorded and leaked a tape that complaining about the central government policies. And claimed that it is the central government fault that Shanghai couldn't abandon the zero tolerance policy. That covid isn't serious and just like a cold. That Shanghai should live with the virus.

Source?

 

[SanWenYu]

It's usually difficult to get a bed in a good hospital in Shanghai due to high number of patients. Since he never had any problems, I think he might know doctors. I am not saying SH government is falsifying numbers. I think the overall number is true, local government might be playing around with the asymptomatic and symptomatic numbers to make itself look better. For example, SH has 1000 covid positive cases, but the local government decides to classify 800 of them as asymptomatic and 200 symptomatic instead of 50/50. Afterall ratio of SH's asym/sym has been a noted outlier compared to other provinces.

So your relative only had speculation. He (or she) just thought that the hospitals must have been filled up with covid patients. Because he did not see all these covid patients in the hospital he went, so he concluded that the authorities must have been cooking the numbers. Seriously?

I kept saying that, according to the latest edition of the covid guidance, asymptomatic and mild cases are no longer required to be hospitalized. I also cited that Guancha interview to show you how the quarantine facilities in Shanghai are taking care of asym. and mild cases. In other words, I have been trying to tell you that, because the guidance has changed, there are not as many covid patients in hospitals unless they turn into moderate cases with pneumonia.

Guess you did not read what I said all along.

Shanghai has the highest active reported covid numbers in China, a situation so bad that PLA just got involved. Yet Shanghai doesn't have any high risk areas just middle risk areas. When Fujian reported 9 symptomatic and 179 asymptomatic cases (8/176 in Quanzhou) on March 27, its government declared a high risk area in Quanzhou. Does the lack of high risk areas in Shanghai make sense?

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I don't know on what conditions a region must be declared high risk for covid. Therefore I cannot say if it makes sense or not for Shanghai not declaring any high risk area.

Either way, it is not an evidence for accusing them cooking numbers. It is like I cannot accuse you for robbing banks only because you drive Ferrari and drink champagne.

 

[solarz]

Unless most of these asymptomatic cases eventually develop to symptomatic, there is still the big difference of asymptomatic/symptomatic ratio between Shanghai and the rest of the country. The good thing is that China report symptomatic case transferred from asymptomatic cases. So we will need to wait for a week or two.

The nationwide ratio is 10:1 while the Shanghai ratio is 20:1. The difference is not that dramatic and can be explained by differences in methodology, response, and demographics.

 

[solarz]

If Beijing wanted to test a lax approach, Hong Kong has already provided enough infos.

Maybe you should check who currently is Shanghai's party boss, his relationship with Xi and whose faction used to dominate SH political scene. With 20th national congress just around the corner, this covid outbreak and its responses could have serious long term political ramifications.

In PRC political terms, the different approaches taken by Shanghai government and Shenzhen government can be seen as a struggle of different paths. A cynic could even consider the current shanghai fiasco was the result of vicious political infighting. Is it really a coincidence for a recording of SH CDC employee complaining about covid response being a political problem to be leaked on the same day that Vice premier Sun arrived in Shanghai?

I don't like these kinds of conspiracy theories. Shanghai may have higher numbers than we've been used to seeing, but thanks to comprehensive testing and contact tracing, it's still entirely manageable. The fact that the central government is stepping in already means they've been keeping an eye on the situation all this time.

 

[KYli]

You are overreading it. In mainland, it's not uncommon to have open debate in public. The CPC and central government do not orchestrate anything and everything on media. Otherwise there would have not been any 公知 (the known dissenters in public).

Gao was a retiree. He is not "in the central government". Zhang, as I said, was not speaking on behalf of the Shanghai local authorities.

If the central government wanted to give Shanghai a lecture, it would not use Gao as it would not be effective. A former minister of public health and retired for 15 years, Gao does not carry much weight. He was not even a member of CPC's central committee. If the high ranks of Shanghai locals wanted to subotage the zero-tolerance policy do you really think they would give a shit about what Gao says?

I have to see evidence that Zhang and Shanghai have been most supportive of living with covid. Sources?

Do you see which country is so defensive about the flu now?

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领导回答，对的。要被逼疯了，她们专业机构也要被逼疯了，专业人员说的话根本就没人听。现在全部把这个病变成了政z性的一个疾病。花了这么多的人力物力财力……就在做一个防L感的，你看到现在哪个国家防流感这么防吗？

领导还说，那这一轮的话，不是应该抓紧时间提高接种率嘛。我提案写过好几次了，知道不？所以你不要认为，我们医护人员或者专业人员都是饭桶，我们都知道重点是什么？但是没人听。

 

[solarz]

If you needed the central government to step in, then Shanghai is already a big failure. Shanghai has lot more political influence than HK and Shenzhen combined. Shanghai is the center and leader of Yangtze delta. Remember Shanghai has one of the 25 seats in Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party

Disagree completely. There's no shame in having the central government step in, especially considering Shanghai is a 直辖市, i.e. directly under the control of the central government.

That's not true. China CDC has refuted Shanghai a few times already on how Shanghai interpret and implement pandemic policies.

I saw the source you provided, and I'm not convinced either. That was just an opinion piece by a retiree, neither representative of the CDC, nor a particularly convincing example of refutation.

It is the first time since Wuhan that China has mobilized its military to fight covid. The virus has spread to 21 provinces due to Shanghai local government incompetent

So what if the military is sending in medical assistance? That's not "mobilizing", it's just what the PLA does.