Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[solarz]

Lack of accountability. Total disregard of protocol. Arrogant and total disrespect of other provinces and cities even Beijing and Shenzhen residents are considered peasants from Shanghainese people's perspective. Bowing to the Westerners. Many doctors and nurses and people in Shanghai have the same attitude that we know better and it is just a cold.

If the Shanghai government has followed China pandemic playbooks, then this shouldn't have happened. There are many checks and stops in place to prevent such scenarios. I totally agree some people in Shanghai local government needs to be punished.

I don't have a problem for Shanghai local government to try out the precision approach but it shouldn't have hided the fact that it failed to contain covid and refuse to prevent people leaving Shanghai which cause the current wave of outbreaks into 21 provinces.

Don't even get me started how Shanghai refused the helps from other provinces and tried to downplay any helps from other provinces.

Xi has finally decided to send PLA into Shanghai to contain the current covid outbreak. It's about time. Shanghai needs to be liberated a second time considering the incompetency of Shanghai's local government.

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PLA has decided to send about 2,000 medical personnel to support Shanghai in control of the covid outbreak. The medical team selected comes from 7 medical units belonging to the army, navy and joint logistics support force. Upon arrival, they will quickly engage in medical treatment and PCR testing.

Calm yourselves. The central government has been monitoring every outbreak closely. It makes zero sense for Shanghai to be an exception. FYI, Shanghai has never enjoyed any kind of special political privilege like HK or even Shenzhen.

It's clear that the authorities wanted to see what would happen with a more lax approach, and had the measures in place to step on the brakes if things started going south.

The situation right now is actually much better than you guys are portraying it. First, the infection numbers are still extremely low for a city of 26 million people, and second, the severe cases count is only a tiny fraction of the already low infection count.

I remember that Zhongnanshan said a few months ago that China was going to start relaxing its measures when COVID death rate drops to flu levels. It looks like we're seeing this happen right now.

Don't get so hung up on the numbers, look at what those numbers mean.

 

[texx1]

I was also wondering why Shanghai got few hundreds symptomatic cases vs. many thousands asymptomatic for more than a week, while this pattern is against Jilin and all other provinces. Did Shanghai get different variant? Or they play by different book? Maybe the later.

From my relatives who are currently still under lockdown in Shanghai, they told me Shanghai classifies covid positive cases as asymptomatic as long as there is no lung involvement. A patient can have a fever and other upper respiratory symptoms. If his lungs didn't show obvious signs in a CT scan, it's reported as an asymptomatic case. This is also consistent with what I have read in Chinese social media in the past week.

 

[KYli]

I am just telling that in Europe (+-half of the countries) covid became a flu from peoples perspective, only what's left is tourism, still some countries require testing. New waves are doing almost nothing for economies in countries which stopped with restrictions. What will big covid lockdownis do to China? I guess this year we might see again big jump in total debt like in 2020 to achieve good growth.

But it isn't. Hospitals still got overwhelmed from each outbreak. People still got sicked and needed days off which affect productivity and shortages of labor which drives up inflation and cause shortages of products. People still are dying.

Don't worry about China. Both the US and the EU have overdone themselves in accumulated debts for the last 3 years.

 

[solarz]

I was also wondering why Shanghai got few hundreds symptomatic cases vs. many thousands asymptomatic for more than a week, while this pattern is against Jilin and all other provinces. Did Shanghai get different variant? Or they play by different book? Maybe the later.

This may shed a clue:

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6051例无症状感染者中，5402例在闭环隔离管控中发现，649例在相关风险人群核酸筛查中发现。

The vast majority of asymptomatic cases were found in people who are already under quarantine.

My hypothesis is that while the infection rate is very high, the actual probability of the infection turning into symptomatic cases is quite low.

Our bodies are adapting to the virus. That's how nature works.

 

[KYli]

Calm yourselves. The central government has been monitoring every outbreak closely. It makes zero sense for Shanghai to be an exception. FYI, Shanghai has never enjoyed any kind of special political privilege like HK or even Shenzhen.

If you needed the central government to step in, then Shanghai is already a big failure. Shanghai has lot more political influence than HK and Shenzhen combined. Shanghai is the center and leader of Yangtze delta. Remember Shanghai has one of the 25 seats in Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party

It's clear that the authorities wanted to see what would happen with a more lax approach, and had the measures in place to step on the brakes if things started going south.

That's not true. China CDC has refuted Shanghai a few times already on how Shanghai interpret and implement pandemic policies.

The situation right now is actually much better than you guys are portraying it. First, the infection numbers are still extremely low for a city of 26 million people, and second, the severe cases count is only a tiny fraction of the already low infection count.

I remember that Zhongnanshan said a few months ago that China was going to start relaxing its measures when COVID death rate drops to flu levels. It looks like we're seeing this happen right now.

Don't get so hung up on the numbers, look at what those numbers mean.

It is the first time since Wuhan that China has mobilized its military to fight covid. The virus has spread to 21 provinces due to Shanghai local government incompetent.

The central government only asked to implement the covid policies with less disruption not relaxing. Just look at HK, the mortality rate is 0.65 and rising. South Korea mortality rate is 0.16 and rising. It isn't a flu. You can't get better statistic than these numbers.

And I am relax as I am confident that the central government would be able to contain the virus. But it doesn't mean I would stop criticizing Shanghai like I did to HK for their failures and incompetent.

 

[texx1]

Calm yourselves. The central government has been monitoring every outbreak closely. It makes zero sense for Shanghai to be an exception. FYI, Shanghai has never enjoyed any kind of special political privilege like HK or even Shenzhen.

It's clear that the authorities wanted to see what would happen with a more lax approach, and had the measures in place to step on the brakes if things started going south.

If Beijing wanted to test a lax approach, Hong Kong has already provided enough infos.

Maybe you should check who currently is Shanghai's party boss, his relationship with Xi and whose faction used to dominate SH political scene. With 20th national congress just around the corner, this covid outbreak and its responses could have serious long term political ramifications.

In PRC political terms, the different approaches taken by Shanghai government and Shenzhen government can be seen as a struggle of different paths. A cynic could even consider the current shanghai fiasco was the result of vicious political infighting. Is it really a coincidence for a recording of SH CDC employee complaining about covid response being a political problem to be leaked on the same day that Vice premier Sun arrived in Shanghai?

 

[SanWenYu]

From my relatives who are currently still under lockdown in Shanghai, they told me Shanghai classifies covid positive cases as asymptomatic as long as there is no lung involvement. A patient can have a fever and other upper respiratory symptoms. If his lungs didn't show obvious signs in a CT scan, it's reported as an asymptomatic case. This is also consistent with what I have read in Chinese social media in the past week.

Are you sure about that? You relatives might be confused. The latest covid guidance does not require to hospitalize mild cases anymore. Asymptomatic and mild cases are to be quarantined and treated in "the designated facilities".

This interview with a medical expert in Shanghai explains how a such designated facility works:

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"In the designated facility, asym. patients are monitored for symptoms development including body temporature. Mild cases are treated with medicines."

大江东：对于无症状感染者和轻症病例来说，诊断和治愈的流程是怎样的？

陈尔真：进到集中隔离点的人员，都是在核酸筛查中显示阳性的，进来安顿之后，在第二天、第三天就开展核酸检测，一旦转阴，符合出院标准，就办出院手续。对无症状感染者来说，数据显示，这个过程一般是7到10天。出院回到家，再进行社区管理。如果有症状，病情可能会延长，我们也有严格治疗方案来面对病情的变化。

大江东：有些入住集中隔离医疗点的感染者表示，入住之后没有给药，也没有进行核酸检测，您能解释一下吗？

陈尔真：没问题。目前住进集中隔离医疗点的，大部分是无症状感染者，还有一部分是有一定症状的轻症患者。进来之后的治疗，我们严格按照《新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗方案（试行第九版）》的要求，对无症状感染者，监测体温和症状，适当对症处理；对于有症状的患者，我们是有一些药物治疗的，特别是对有基础疾病的患者，都有相关预案、措施，确保治疗能够继续进行。

大江东：从目前披露的情况看，上海此次疫情还未出现一例重症，该怎么看？

陈尔真：是否重症，主要是看患者有没有出现呼吸衰竭，还要看其他一些指标，比如器官受影响的程度等；随着新冠病毒不断变异，毒性也在变化。早期的新冠病毒不仅影响人的呼吸功能，也会造成其他器官功能受损。从这次奥密克戎毒株来看，主要还是以上呼吸道症状为主，肺部病变很少很少。我现在看下来的病人情况，目前没有发现有严重呼吸衰竭的病人。当然，这里也要考虑到人群特点，如果是高龄患者，本身器官储备功能下降的，受到新冠打击之后，应对能力下降，就有可能成为高危患者。对高危患者我们也有相关预案，把问题看得复杂一点、严重一点，做到有备无患，尽管备着不一定用。用这样的原则，来安排我们的资源。


大江东：很多人有个疑问，为什么上海无症状感染者病例要远远高于其他地方？

陈尔真：上海和全国的诊断标准肯定是一样的。无症状感染者多，可能有几方面原因。一是主动筛查，有症状感染者一般是有症状后到医院里就诊时发现，上海大面积的主动筛查，很多没有症状的感染者被发现，比例就肯定会高。也要注意到，这两天上海有症状感染者数量占比增高了一些，接近10%了。主要是在管控人群中发现，主要的是原来无症状，现在有了症状。我们依然严格遵循“早发现、早隔离、早治疗”原则，上海动作比较快，才有无症状感染者占比较高这样一个结果；当然还跟疫苗接种率，感染人群特点和其他方面的一些原因有关。


大江东：这些无症状感染者，有没有可能未来会居家隔离？

陈尔真：这种可能性是有的。看整个形势的发展，如果量太多的话，有条件可以居家隔离。当然我们要配合居家管控的一些措施，最关键的是个人的依从性问题，既然是居家隔离，就要按照规范，严格管控好自己，不出门了，该做好个人防护措施的要做到位，否则就没办法达到阻断传播的效果。

 

[KYli]

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[texx1]

Are you sure about that? You relatives might be confused. The latest covid guidance does not require to hospitalize mild cases anymore. Asymptomatic and mild cases are to be quarantined and treated in "the designated facilities".

This interview with a medical expert in Shanghai explains how a such designated facility works:

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"In the designated facility, asym. patients are monitored for symptoms development including body temporature. Mild cases are treated with medicines."

My relatives told me how Shanghai classifies and reports asymptomatic cases (reporting standards). Your article talks about how they are being medically treated. In Shanghai, a covid positive patient without lung involvement (negative lung CT) is reported as an asymptomatic case, not as a symptomatic case even when the patient could have other covid symptoms. Of course, reported asymptomatic cases are still being isolated and treated.

 

[SanWenYu]

My relatives told me how Shanghai classifies and reports asymptomatic cases (reporting standards). Your article talks about how they are being medically treated. In Shanghai, a covid positive patient without lung involvement (negative lung CT) is reported as an asymptomatic case, not as a symptomatic case even when the patient could have other covid symptoms. Of course, reported asymptomatic cases are still being isolated and treated.

I don't know what you relatives are and how they got that information. If your relatives infact work in publich health and/or they have inside knowledge on how the Shanghai local authority has been misinterpreting the guidance and misreporting case numbers, I am willing to stand corrected.

Otherwise, I'd be speculating that they might be confused because previously mild cases were required to be hospitalized but not anymore.

I was using that interview as an example to show that mild and asym. cases are being taken care of in the same facilities. Those who are not familiar with the latest edition of the guidance might take it as mild cases being classified and reported as asym. ones.

In that interview I cited above, the interviewee, when giving his thought on why there have not been many sym. cases in Shanghai, specifically emphasized that Shanghai is following the same guidance as everyone else.

Until there is an official explanation on the Shanghai numbers, I'd take hearsays with a grain of salt.