If I remember correctly, according to a UK government review of multiple studies on this matter, vaccination does play a big role in reducing ones chances of getting Covid. However (please correct me if I am wrong), the probability of getting long Covid is from 21 - 50% (review link: ):
Fully vaccinated participants were about half as likely to have symptoms lasting ≥28 days than unvaccinated participants (odds ratio [OR] = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.32 to 0.82, p=0.005), whereas partially vaccinated participants were about as likely to have symptoms lasting ≥28 days than unvaccinated participants (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.25, p=0.69).
• Fully vaccinated younger adults (18 to 59 years) were much less likely to have symptoms lasting ≥28 days than younger unvaccinated adults (OR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.59, p=0.003).
Assuming the above is true and everyone gets Covid, if at least 21% of the Chinese populace is at least affected, the economic cost for the country would most likely be high since they can’t work. Fortunately, China isn’t as reliant on exports as before, so China can brunt the temporary economic pain of lockdowns. As long as China doesn’t rely on exports, China can easily take the hits from those lockdowns. China needs to really research the cause behind long covid and, like what you said, antiviral drugs and antibody cocktails. If the cause and the treatment can be identified for this issue, China would no longer need lockdowns. I believe they are most likely doing that, so we’ll just need to wait and see.
The only thing China needs to realize is that the one country two systems concept for HK is a catostrophic failure. The current surge was ultimately caused by Hong Kong’s negligence and incompetence. If there is anything that needs to be changed, it’s Hong Kong.
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