At this rate, wouldn't the country reach herd immunity from omnicron in 80 days?
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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- Start date
1126 + 1206 (1860 + 1194 yesterday)
Symptomatic cases:
Jilin 742 (1456 yesterday), Fujian 99 (23), Guangdong 83 (59), Liaoning 62 (32), Tianjin 48 (59), Hebei 38 (38), Shandong 36 (75), Zhejiang 27 (23), Shan'xi 26 (28), Helongjiang 16 (15).
Beijing 4 (9), Shanghai 8 (5).
28 asymptomatic cases started having symptoms.
Asymptomatic cases:
Jilin 415 (397), Hebei 178 (239), Shandong 96 (105), Liaoning 94 (12), Guangdong 70 (54), Jiangshu 67 (60), Fujian 42 (15), Yunnan 24 (32), Guangxi 23 (20), Helongjiang 13 (11).
Beijing 0 (1), Shanghai 150 (197).
Symptomatic cases:
Jilin 742 (1456 yesterday), Fujian 99 (23), Guangdong 83 (59), Liaoning 62 (32), Tianjin 48 (59), Hebei 38 (38), Shandong 36 (75), Zhejiang 27 (23), Shan'xi 26 (28), Helongjiang 16 (15).
Beijing 4 (9), Shanghai 8 (5).
28 asymptomatic cases started having symptoms.
Asymptomatic cases:
Jilin 415 (397), Hebei 178 (239), Shandong 96 (105), Liaoning 94 (12), Guangdong 70 (54), Jiangshu 67 (60), Fujian 42 (15), Yunnan 24 (32), Guangxi 23 (20), Helongjiang 13 (11).
Beijing 0 (1), Shanghai 150 (197).
Likely, probably peak soon.
Is the only hope for China to wait until every surrounding country achieves herd immunity from COVID? Is that even a feasible scenario, considering the likelihood of future variants? The most recent outbreak was from Hong Kong.
New variants would emerge making herd immunity useless. A new wave of covid is coming to EU after just peak a couple months ago. Only hope is covid to become less lethal but the increase of contagious of covid is a concern.
I know this has been asked a million times, but if that's the case then what is China's end game here?
The only solution I see is to wait until COVID evolves to something on the level of the common flu, and then gradually open up. I say this because subsequent variants have generally been increasingly mild. I am not a doctor, so I am not sure if this is possible.
Here are the musts from the looks of it:
1. Anti viral drugs and maybe even antibody cocktails need to be ready to be manufactured on a massive scale to quickly fight off infection.
2. Develop advanced domestic vaccines for self-suffiency. So, no Pfizer/Fosun or Moderna for the time being.
3. Wait for certain variables used in virology to determine if the virus has reached the endemic stage.
The one below is not stated, but I believe they are looking into it as Western scientists are extremely alarmed by it:
4. Really understand long Covid. I'm sure the Chinese are aware of it via international research publications.
All of them will take a long time. Fortunately, like I said before, China can take the hits from the temporary lockdowns. They just need to tighten up the loose ends.
From the Chinese government's perspective, China has dodged the original covid, Alpha and Delta variants bullets by being extremely cautious. China's economy is in a better shape than most countries and up until now its strategy has been a win for China. Understandably, the costs and benefits of zero covid are under threat from Omicron B2 variant but China seems to be determined in containing Omicron.
Most of MSM kept saying that China doesn't have an exit strategy. However, if you read and listen to Chinese experts, China was prepared to reopen but the emerge of Alpha and Delta variants have derailed its plan.
If things don't deteriorate, it is very likely that China would open up in next spring. In the mean time, China would focus upon vaccinated elderly, boost shots. In the fall, there would be a few second generations vaccines and new drugs and treatments to be ready to deploy.
In addition, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, NZ and Australia would provide China with valuable lesson and data for opening up. Long covid, Omicron mortality rate for countries with no herd immunity, viral drugs effectiveness and vaccines efficiency. Contrary to MSM propaganda, the longer China waited the more ready it would become. Hong Kong's failure is more due to sabotage and slow response from the HK government.
In a press briefing on March 17 (local time), Dr. Zhang Wenhong (张文宏) of Shanghai explained, in layman's language, some of the changes in the latest official Covid guidance published by the State Council on March 14.
His description confirmed my speculation that China, while preparing for the Omicron surge, is moving cautiously towards treating Covid as endemic.
1. Covid patients released from hospitals can now quarantine at home. After 7 days, with one negative PCR test result, the patient is free to go back to normal life. It used to be 14 days in designed quarantine locations and exit only with two negative test results (24 hours apart, IIRC).
2. The standard for determining infectiousness, measured by the CT value, is now relaxed. Dr. Zhang said that in Shanghai the average hospital stay is 15 days. With the new relaxed standard, the average stay can be shortened to 10 days.
3. Mild cases no longer needs to be admitted to designated Covid hospitals. See also post #18013.
In the end, Zhang gave his prerequisites for easing the zero Covid policy: high vaccination rate, miracle medicines, large redundancy in health and medical capabilities (hospital beds, ICU rooms, etc.)
Guancha report (in Chinese):
His description confirmed my speculation that China, while preparing for the Omicron surge, is moving cautiously towards treating Covid as endemic.
1. Covid patients released from hospitals can now quarantine at home. After 7 days, with one negative PCR test result, the patient is free to go back to normal life. It used to be 14 days in designed quarantine locations and exit only with two negative test results (24 hours apart, IIRC).
2. The standard for determining infectiousness, measured by the CT value, is now relaxed. Dr. Zhang said that in Shanghai the average hospital stay is 15 days. With the new relaxed standard, the average stay can be shortened to 10 days.
3. Mild cases no longer needs to be admitted to designated Covid hospitals. See also post #18013.
In the end, Zhang gave his prerequisites for easing the zero Covid policy: high vaccination rate, miracle medicines, large redundancy in health and medical capabilities (hospital beds, ICU rooms, etc.)
Guancha report (in Chinese):
The problem with "zero covid" policy is that, the other countries are not implementing the same policy. So it looks like China will not be able to open up its border, as that will import many new variant cases. In the meantime, what China can do is to keep boosting people with updated vaccines and stocking up on anti-viral drugs.