Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China has been reporting asymptomatic cases daily as a separate category from symptomatic cases since the early days of the pandemic. I remember seeing some numbers last year and the asymptomatic cases were fairly low compared to symptomatic cases. But now it seems like they are at 1:2~1:1 ratio. It could be due to the higher vaccination rate as well as the milder symptoms of the Omicron variant.

Does anyone has the historical data for daily asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases ? It will be interesting to see the trend.
You are correct that China started reporting asymptomatic cases separately early on, at least as early as Apr 2020. I somehow got the impression that categorizing asymptomatic is a recent addition.

This web page lists all the epidenmic bulletins (疫情通报) made by the NHC (national health commission) starting on Jan 11, 2020:
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This is the vaccination (疫苗接种) web page:
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Speaking of "Serve the People", in this NHC web site, no tabular or graphic formats of the Covid and vaccination-related data to be found for public consumption. If you want to see historical trends, you'll have to fetch all the bulletins, parse the data out of the text and make the tables and graphs yourself. This simply sucks in 2022, two years after the pandemic started.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
A high asymptomatic to symptomatic case ratio is a good thing. It indicates how well vaccination is working in reducing seriousness of the illness. Going forward, the ratio, in addition to total cases, will be two key indicators for China as she begins to relax her Covid-19 mitigation policy.

@tokenanalyst and @KYli were right in that asymptomatic individuals can be silent carriers. They can only be detected by testing. So I do not see China changing her mandatory mass testing policy any time soon while easing lock downs.
 
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Quickie

Colonel
According to the data released in Feburary, the Chinese vaccines provided protection against Delta and Omicron comparable to the mRNA ones. See my post #17646 in this thread.

Shanghai just released a detailed breakdown of the 6 + 55 new cases reported on Mar 13, with the vaccination information of each case. But it does not say whether the "fully vaccined" cases took the booster shot or not.

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Out of the 6 symptomatic cases, 1 male of 78 yo is not vaccined. This patient, and another male of 58 yo, were asymptomatic then turned symptomatic.

In the 55 asymptomatic cases, I counted 10 of them did not have full vaccination, including 3 kids below 10 yo.

"On this day til 5pm, Shanghai health authority has tested and traced 8985 persons who could have had 'immediate contacts' (密接) with an infected person, and 27548 persons who could have had 'close contacts' (次密接). So far, 8520 of the 8985 immediate contacts cases are negative, 27322 of the 27548 close contacts cases are negative, with the rest still under investigation."



I don't remember having seen 次密接 before. If it is indeed a new category, Shanghai is refining the process.

In the past 4 to 5 days, Shanghai has had confirmed cases, symptomatic or not, reported all over the place, it is safe to assume that the spread has been going on for longer. Even with the median incubation period of 5 to 6 days (Omicron is said to have shorter incubation period), we should have seen the curve rising up quickly. But it is not the case for Shanghai. The curve has been flat. The total cases reported have been almost constant, between 50 and 100, for each day.

One possible explanation would be that the vaccines have protected most of whom were exposed from being infected.

Another possibility would be that there are still large number of infected persons not counted by the health authority because it has not done enough PCR tests and contact tracing. Such uncounted cases are likely without any symptoms to be notified.

Or it could be a bit of both.

We will see in a few days.


" According to the data released in Feburary, the Chinese vaccines provided protection against Delta and Omicron comparable to the mRNA ones. See my post #17646 in this thread "

The current first gen vaccines provide noticeable protection against this variant. The breakthrough rate is 22.6% for those who have had 2 shots (完成基础免疫) and 6% who have had the booster shot (加强免疫).

By these figures, the current first-gen vaccines are better than mRNA vaccines, not just comparable.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
A high asymptomatic to symptomatic case ratio is a good thing. It indicates how well vaccination is working in reducing seriousness of the illness. Going forward, the ratio, in addition to total cases, will be two key indicators for China as she begins to relax her Covid-19 mitigation policy.

@tokenanalyst and @KYli were right in that asymptomatic individuals can be silent carriers. They can only be detected by testing. So I do not see China changing her mandatory mass testing policy any time soon while easing lock downs.
Also means that their testing capabilities are still well above the virus infection rate, many countries only test symptomatic carriers and forget about the asymptomatic carriers due limited testing capabilities.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Gottlieb is on the board of Pfizer. It is no-brainer for him to make such a comment. Just want to say the US still has 1200 mortality per day due to covid and the surge in the EU is coming. So either you eradicate like China or for every 4-6 months you have to deal with a new variant and a new surge of covid cases.

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The lock down in shenzhen is an indication of what will happen to other Chinese cities. They should vaccinate people with boosters, rather than just testing like crazy.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
The lock down in shenzhen is an indication of what will happen to other Chinese cities. They should vaccinate people with boosters, rather than just testing like crazy.
NOO, testing is absolutely important in containing Covid, without a good testing you are fighting blind. And once the virus expansion surpass the testing capabilities of a country is game over.
I do agree that they should start boosting like crazy.
 
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