Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[hydrogenpi]

Since this outbreak of COVID19, -first in Wuhan/China and now globally around the world-, seems to have had the net overall effect of speeding up (versus slowing down) the rate of US and China "decoupling", -- (indeed it seems the Trump admin will move forward with decision to force TSMC to drop Huawei and just recently approved 1 billion for rural US carieers to rip and replace Huawei and ZTE gear) -- and may lead to an isolation of China on the world stage (and we have already seen some signs of stigma against Chinese in a lot of the worldwide countries) how can China protect and defend its strategic interests in this rapidly changing times with dramatically altered landscapes? Many analysts thought it was unlikely China was going to be able to purchase $200 billion USD goods from imports from USA within 2 years per the stage one of "Trade Deal" signed in January, now that all this has happened and a global recession might be on the horizon, it seems all but impossible for China to met those demands from US.

In terms of the 40,000 feet bigger picture view at the highest level with regards to the geopolitical hegemonies of the East and West (largely China and America) what are China's weaknesses it should try best to avoid or mitigate and strengths that it should leverage and maximize? Given the new dynamic landscape that the world is finding it in, and many of the hurdles to grow, development, etc that China may now need to face, impedements that weren't so obvious back in 2019, how should the CCP/Beijing and Xi/ other Chinese leadership strategize and what should they focus on?

 

[localizer]

Since this outbreak of COVID19, -first in Wuhan/China and now globally around the world-, seems to have had the net overall effect of speeding up (versus slowing down) the rate of US and China "decoupling", -- (indeed it seems the Trump admin will move forward with decision to force TSMC to drop Huawei and just recently approved 1 billion for rural US carieers to rip and replace Huawei and ZTE gear) -- and may lead to an isolation of China on the world stage (and we have already seen some signs of stigma against Chinese in a lot of the worldwide countries) how can China protect and defend its strategic interests in this rapidly changing times with dramatically altered landscapes? Many analysts thought it was unlikely China was going to be able to purchase $200 billion USD goods from imports from USA within 2 years per the stage one of "Trade Deal" signed in January, now that all this has happened and a global recession might be on the horizon, it seems all but impossible for China to met those demands from US.

In terms of the 40,000 feet bigger picture view at the highest level with regards to the geopolitical hegemonies of the East and West (largely China and America) what are China's weaknesses it should try best to avoid or mitigate and strengths that it should leverage and maximize? Given the new dynamic landscape that the world is finding it in, and many of the hurdles to grow, development, etc that China may now need to face, impedements that weren't so obvious back in 2019, how should the CCP/Beijing and Xi/ other Chinese leadership strategize and what should they focus on?

Lol if anything this outbreak shows the world that their economies need China.

China has shown that it can recover fast from such a disaster and maintain its position in the global supply chain.

 

[plawolf]

As COVID19 spreads world wide, you can already seen a massive shift in who’s lead the world is taking.

It seems only Japan is going down the bury-head-in-sand-and-pretend-all-is-well Trump led approach, while the rest of the world is following China’s strict quarantine approach.

All the western propaganda efforts to take advantage of this virus to try and damage China is now going to backfire on them.

Already the tone of their reporting is having a sea change, but as people start getting sick and dying en mass in the western world, people are going to start noticing if the western media doesn’t hold their own governments to the impossibly high standards they been bashing the Chinese government for not meeting.

Also, thanks to the enormous attention the western media has given this virus, people in the west are unusually well informed about China’s efforts to combat it. And people are going to notice and get angry when they see their own governments doing less to keep them safe back home.

Western propaganda has been so effective against China because most westerners don’t care enough to fact check what they hear from western MSM and just take that as fact.

But it’s amazing how something ‘trivial’, like ones own health and life can motivate people to do their own research and pay attention.

As western citizens do their own research on how to combat the virus, they will see more and more the stark difference between the lengths the Chinese government is going to, and the bare minimum western governments can achieve.

 

[solarz]

IN case of cluster outbreak. One of first item to disappear from grocery is ethanol alcohol.

Is that really useful though?

 

[localizer]

I think the disease will correlate with this chart.

 

[Mcsweeney]

Also, thanks to the enormous attention the western media has given this virus, people in the west are unusually well informed about China’s efforts to combat it. And people are going to notice and get angry when they see their own governments doing less to keep them safe back home.

...

As western citizens do their own research on how to combat the virus, they will see more and more the stark difference between the lengths the Chinese government is going to, and the bare minimum western governments can achieve.

Nah this will not cause anybody to think more highly of the Chinese government. They will just hate China for bringing over the virus.

 

[Aniah]

Nah this will not cause anybody to think more highly of the Chinese government. They will just hate China for bringing over the virus.

Yup, this one. Already seen a few idiots saying this. Don't expect any hopes and prayers since it's China.

 

[hydrogenpi]

On one hand there is the so called AI revolution, what Yang liked to call the Fourth Industrial revolution. When machines can take over for mental as well as physical labor then outsourcing and offshoring will become redundant and this will deminish globalization. With advent of 3d printing, AI, etc local manufacturing will always win out... Eventually the complex system of global trade and JIT systems will give way to something else and this will invariable cause a great shift and decoupling between East/West, China/USA anyhow, even under the best of political relations...

On the other hand there are still problems with economies of scale both in terms of production and research. Only the major players, superpower nations can afford to invest and excel in AI to the extent needed to achieve self sufficiency... this is why US is trying so hard to curb China's tech rise/ascension, cutting edge technology is where the future is at, and there is no future for low wage low end cheap labor anymore when AI will reduce cost of all such manual labor to mere electric costs of running the machines! Therefore I don't see how India can hope to emulate the China model of going from low end labor to moving up the curve, AI will put a damper to that before it even starts!

This is why the USA is trying so hard to kill Huawei. Huawei represents the cutting edge and pinnacle of Chinese high tech right now. This would be a symbolic victory, a political victory as well as a strategic victory if America was able to paralyze Huawei and keep it down for good.

One way or another I see a US/China decoupling as inevitable. It is a matter of timing, on whose terms, and in which ways that will determine the fate of China and America into the future. Who stands to lose more from a rapid decoupling? By its actions so far, I believe America has placed the bet that an acceleration decoupling gives it better odds of coming out on top when it is all said and done.

 

[plawolf]

Nah this will not cause anybody to think more highly of the Chinese government. They will just hate China for bringing over the virus.

Im under no illusions about this one event reversing decades of MSM propaganda and brainwashing.

However, a direct comparison will expose just how much of a gulf exists between the Chinese and western governments when it comes to have the political will and power to make hard choices for the benefit of their citizens; and the gulf in the competence in transforming that will into results.

 

[Chish]

On one hand there is the so called AI revolution, what Yang liked to call the Fourth Industrial revolution. When machines can take over for mental as well as physical labor then outsourcing and offshoring will become redundant and this will deminish globalization. With advent of 3d printing, AI, etc local manufacturing will always win out... Eventually the complex system of global trade and JIT systems will give way to something else and this will invariable cause a great shift and decoupling between East/West, China/USA anyhow, even under the best of political relations...

On the other hand there are still problems with economies of scale both in terms of production and research. Only the major players, superpower nations can afford to invest and excel in AI to the extent needed to achieve self sufficiency... this is why US is trying so hard to curb China's tech rise/ascension, cutting edge technology is where the future is at, and there is no future for low wage low end cheap labor anymore when AI will reduce cost of all such manual labor to mere electric costs of running the machines! Therefore I don't see how India can hope to emulate the China model of going from low end labor to moving up the curve, AI will put a damper to that before it even starts!

This is why the USA is trying so hard to kill Huawei. Huawei represents the cutting edge and pinnacle of Chinese high tech right now. This would be a symbolic victory, a political victory as well as a strategic victory if America was able to paralyze Huawei and keep it down for good.

One way or another I see a US/China decoupling as inevitable. It is a matter of timing, on whose terms, and in which ways that will determine the fate of China and America into the future. Who stands to lose more from a rapid decoupling? By its actions so far, I believe America has placed the bet that an acceleration decoupling gives it better odds of coming out on top when it is all said and done.

This is about economics, not COVID19 . Maybe should be in the Chinese Economics Thread ?