Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[taxiya]

After watching for days about the debate of "open up, living with covid" and "not opening up, zero tolerance" I want to share some thought.

The first thing I want to suggest is that we should not oversimplify the terms, treating the terms as absolute exclusive to one another. I see that lots of thought are shared by both sides. Over simplification would only lead to meaningless argument.

The second thing I want to say is that whatever Dr. Li Wenqiang meant in his weibo post may have been distorted by both sides because of over-simplification. It does not even matter what he meant now.

If we put up a scale, the current Chinese approach can be regarded as 100, the western approach (repeated half hearted lock down and opening up) would be regarded as 20, 0 would be doing nothing. The Chinese "opening up and living with covid" would be a gradual process over time (years perhaps) and for a considerable time much higher than 20. The process will be carefully monitored and can be reversed at any time if necessary. Nothing should be set in the stone. It must be totally dynamic. In short, Chinese "opening up" is nothing similar to western "opening up".

 

[supersnoop]

Opening up schools but ban masks enforcement. What can go wrong?

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Unbelievable, they are sacrificing kids to the virus for their beliefs and “freedoms”. This is human rights? If you are an American, how can you not look at your country and just cringe.

 

[Nutrient]

Bro, once China achieves 100% vaccination plus boosters, China can grow even faster without sporatic lockdowns to achieve an elusive goal of permanent zero infections. Permanent zero deaths should be sufficient.

You can't guarantee permanent zero deaths, vaccines or no vaccines. You forget the possibility of variants. If you expose 1.4 billion Chinese to infection, then even if they don't die they become an enormous reservoir for the virus, allowing it to evolve a deadly vaccine-proof variant. Why should China do something stupid like that?

Even Chief Scientist of Chinese CDC says China won't pursue 'zero COVID' strategy forever.

Looks like something got lost in translation.

 

[Phead128]

You can't guarantee permanent zero deaths, vaccines or no vaccines.

You can't guarantee permanent zero infections either, vaccines or no vaccines, permanent lockdowns or no lockdowns.

You forget the possibility of variants.

How do you think SAR-CoV-2 jump from animals (bats) or how SAR-CoV-1 jump from animals (civets/pangolins) to humans? Variants/Mutations can occur in the animal host reservoir population, so even if China becomes 100% like North Korea, ban all foreigners, there is a significant risk of animal-to-human re-introduction of SAR-CoV-2 due to the endemic animal population. Animal host resevoir is where it can thrive and mutate too.

If you expose 1.4 billion Chinese to infection, then even if they don't die they become an enormous reservoir for the virus, allowing it to evolve a deadly vaccine-proof variant.

We have annual booster shots specifically tailored to new variants. We issue annual booster shots for new influenza variants every year, so I don't see an issue with issuing booster shots for new SAR-CoV-2 variants.

So long as we develop booster shots, preferrably with mRNA technology to get ahead of new variants, there won't be any issue. Also, I don't understand what you mean by "vaccine-proof", because I am not aware of any coronavirus that have rendered vaccines ineffective.

Why should China do something stupid like that?

Because we Chinese have elite scientists that can read beyound headlines and use critical thinking skills for themselves.

Here is what the CHIEF SCIENTIST of Chinese CDC has to say:

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China should move away from its Covid-Zero approach when elimination no longer works to the country’s advantage, according to a senior health adviser to the government.

“When the dividend on Covid-Zero no longer exists, we won’t do that,” Zeng Guang, the former chief scientist of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an

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with ifeng.com, the news portal of Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV, published Thursday.

“The world around us isn’t in a stable condition, our vaccination is still inadequate and the Covid vaccines are yet to be updated -- that’s why we are still doing Covid-Zero,” Zeng said in the interview. “But as the international situation changes, China will definitely change.”

 

[Phead128]

After watching for days about the debate of "open up, living with covid" and "not opening up, zero tolerance" I want to share some thought.

The first thing I want to suggest is that we should not oversimplify the terms, treating the terms as absolute exclusive to one another. I see that lots of thought are shared by both sides. Over simplification would only lead to meaningless argument.

The second thing I want to say is that whatever Dr. Li Wenqiang meant in his weibo post may have been distorted by both sides because of over-simplification. It does not even matter what he meant now.

If we put up a scale, the current Chinese approach can be regarded as 100, the western approach (repeated half hearted lock down and opening up) would be regarded as 20, 0 would be doing nothing. The Chinese "opening up and living with covid" would be a gradual process over time (years perhaps) and for a considerable time much higher than 20. The process will be carefully monitored and can be reversed at any time if necessary. Nothing should be set in the stone. It must be totally dynamic. In short, Chinese "opening up" is nothing similar to western "opening up".

Excellent analysis, whole heartedly agree.

It's a phased gradual process which includes many milestones. It's not like a flip of a switched, it's an evolving and dynamic situation. I totally agree as you said, "Opening Up with Chinese Characteristics" is at baseline higher level than Western Re-opening, at varying degree of speed over many years, depending on science and real-world evidence.

I personally don't want Chinese to be left behind economically with permanent lockdowns forever and forever and forever. There has to be an Exit strategy.... or you will be like US stuck in Afghanistan forever!!!

 

[JSChineseTiger]

Chart explaining how rhinovirus (common cold), coronavirus (covid-19), influenza A (seasonal flu) interact​

This explains why cold is the most common throughout the year, only decrease somewhat in winter, and flu is least common throughout the year, only appearing in December and January.

source:

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[JSChineseTiger]

The easy way to not catch covid is by catching yourself a cold. If you catch cold, you will not catch covid.

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[solarz]

The easy way to not catch covid is by catching yourself a cold. If you catch cold, you will not catch covid.

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You should test that yourself and let us know how it goes.

 

[Nutrient]

You can't guarantee permanent zero infections either, vaccines or no vaccines, permanent lockdowns or no lockdowns.

No, but I can prove that by NOT opening up, infections can be kept low. What is happening now in China is the proof. In contrast, you think "permanent zero deaths" is possible -- even likely, given how loud you've been -- after opening up, and the evidence nearly everywhere (especially in India and the US, and even in heavily vaccinated Israel) thoroughly contradicts you. Did you say you were a scientist in training? To ignore the evidence does not look good on your scientific record.

 

[KYli]

Vaccination rate, booser shot, second generation vaccines and antibodies drugs are all important for the fight against covid. However, as a top Chinese CDC official said, the most important thing is predictability. Scientists still don't know enough about covid-19 to be able to predict how the virus would mutate or how fast it would mutate. This unknown is why the Chinese government is reluctant to open up. That's why the coming fall, winter and early spring is so important. If vaccines and booster shots can be somewhat effective against the virus and lowering the deaths, then things would be lot more simple. If not or if the virus evades the vaccines, then there would not be an opening up anytime soon.