COMAC C929 Widebody Airliner

taxiya said:

Let me summarize what you are saying. Your first paragraph is saying that China insisted on relying on the west even though there is the high risk of sanction coming. At the end, you critisize China for "doing" this. All your reason is because it is "obviously".

So what I see is that you are doing a strawman argument. First set a target purely based on your mind, then shoot at it. However your target isn't real, for every western item, there is a mirrored Chinese alternative in development. Russian alternative isn't different from Chinese alternative.

If you are right, then the only conclusion is that Chinese government is stupid to sell China's future to the west. TBH, I don't think you are here to some different perspective with us, but purely to make a propaganda, an usual tactic of pretending of being more caring for China than Chinese government, you may know the phrase "打着红旗反红旗".

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There are precedents that corroborate my conclusion. I'm not inventing non-existent scenarios.

The semiconductor industry was severely affected following sanctions and had many plans delayed. I just see the same pattern in the aviation industry.

If the US did this to Huawei and SMIC, so try to imagine what they can do to COMAC...

Obviously sanctions can be overcomed, but it would be the same problem that Huawei faces and that Russia also faces with the SJ-100 and MS-21. It is something that can be prevented without experiencing the same losses, even if it is delayed.

If China and Russia worked together they would certainly be able to overcome the Western monopoly sooner, instead of still paying large sums of money to Rolls-Royce and several other companies of the western MIC.

Another problem Russia is having with the sanctions is maintaining their existing aviation park.

Rather ironically the components which were done specifically with joint-ventures with some sharing of technology like the engine in the SSJ-100 which is made by PowerJet, that is a joint venture by French Safran and Russian UEC Saturn, will be one of the most hit because basically only Russia uses them. The hot part of the engine is imported and specific to that engine that basically no one else uses. The older imported aircraft are much more widely available in the world market so it is easier to smuggle parts for them.

Recent aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX were returned to the leaser, the fact that so few of them were sold thus far means less parts are available in the gray market, the aircraft might be more prone to maintainability issues from being unproven, and the lease isn't close enough to completion where a residual payment to buy the aircraft outright would make economic sense.

China needs to take care it wouldn't be stuck with hundreds of CFM Leap engines of model exclusive to the C919 that would be sanctioned with from getting parts for later.

Still, I think Russia will have minimal economic impact from Western aviation sanctions on civilian transport aircraft in the long term. The MC-21 and SJ-100 projects are well advanced. The Russification process of those aircraft started in 2018 not yesterday. And most of the existing aircraft park in Russia is older types. The Russian government was pushing Aeroflot, and other aviation companies in Russia, to order Russian aircraft. So they delayed or cut back on purchases of latest generation A320NEO or 737MAX or such aircraft. Most of the existing aviation park is constituted of older aircraft types for which parts are more widely available in the gray market. So I think they will be able to maintain their aircraft ok enough to cover the period in between now and when the new import substituted aircraft enter production.

gelgoog said:

Another problem Russia is having with the sanctions is maintaining their existing aviation park.

Rather ironically the components which were done specifically with joint-ventures with some sharing of technology like the engine in the SSJ-100 which is made by PowerJet, that is a joint venture by French Safran and Russian UEC Saturn, will be one of the most hit because basically only Russia uses them. The hot part of the engine is imported and specific to that engine that basically no one else uses. The older imported aircraft are much more widely available in the world market so it is easier to smuggle parts for them.

Recent aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX were returned to the leaser, the fact that so few of them were sold thus far means less parts are available in the gray market, the aircraft might be more prone to maintainability issues from being unproven, and the lease isn't close enough to completion where a residual payment to buy the aircraft outright would make economic sense.

China needs to take care it wouldn't be stuck with hundreds of CFM Leap engines of model exclusive to the C919 that would be sanctioned with from getting parts for later.

Still, I think Russia will have minimal economic impact from Western aviation sanctions on civilian transport aircraft in the long term. The MC-21 and SJ-100 projects are well advanced. The Russification process of those aircraft started in 2018 not yesterday. And most of the existing aircraft park in Russia is older types. The Russian government was pushing Aeroflot, and other aviation companies in Russia, to order Russian aircraft. So they delayed or cut back on purchases of latest generation A320NEO or 737MAX or such aircraft. Most of the existing aviation park is constituted of older aircraft types for which parts are more widely available in the gray market. So I think they will be able to maintain their aircraft ok enough to cover the period in between now and when the new import substituted aircraft enter production.

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furthermore, as a safety valve, the Russian government ordered the construction of 115 Tu-214 aircraft already in production to date at a low production rate. The TU-214 aircraft which can be considered already completely built with national components as well as equipped with 2 PS-90 series turbofans considered very reliable, although less fuel efficient than Western models. But in any case, in these geopolitical and sanctioning conditions and even more so for a large hydrocarbon producing nation, greater fuel consumption should not be a problem, since first of all it is the possibility of implementing internal connections in that immense country that it is the Russian Federation.

Deino said:

Guys ... can we leave out any discussion on Russia's aviation industry and why it failed or not?

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No problem, but the discussion regarding Russian aircraft arose solely due to the change in the CR-929 program to C-929 and then expanded to the consequences deriving from possible impositions of sanctions which could also affect this made in China aircraft filled with many components coming from Western bloc societies.
Therefore, Russia is a clear example of the difficulties that arise when sanctions and embargoes affect the aviation sector of a large nation that had relied almost completely on using foreign aircraft or with a large number of foreign components.
Russia's luck is that it had not yet completely abandoned the sector.
Therefore we may not talk about Russian aircraft here, but we must certainly keep in mind what happened to them to prevent it from happening to others too.

I specifically mentioned what happened with the SSJ-100 after the Western sanctions just to make a point that having joint production of C919 or C929 components in China isn't necessarily the insurance policy against sanctions some people make it out to be.

The other comments were made to show other possible issues in case similar sanctions are applied to China.

The only reason China has thus far escaped similar broad reaching sanctions is that it is still a major market for Western aviation firms. But given the current issues Boeing is having selling the 737 MAX to China even that isn't an insurance anymore.

gelgoog said:

I specifically mentioned what happened with the SSJ-100 after the Western sanctions just to make a point that having joint production of C919 or C929 components in China isn't necessarily the insurance policy against sanctions some people make it out to be.

The other comments were made to show other possible issues in case similar sanctions are applied to China.

The only reason China has thus far escaped similar broad reaching sanctions is that it is still a major market for Western aviation firms. But given the current issues Boeing is having selling the 737 MAX to China even that isn't an insurance anymore.

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You and I had some exchanges a few years back on the merits of taking Russia on as a partner in the C-929/CR-929 program. I had my reservations and you were more pro Russian participation. My biggest concern has been that having Russia as an equal partner would slow down the whole development process significantly if it would go anywhere at all, not that Russia doesn't have much to contribute--they do, from a technology and experience standpoint. China can enlist Russia as suppliers or even a minor partner. Having two strong-willed cooks in the kitchen doesn't work too well for such a strategic and long-drawn-out program, particularly when they have very different ideas and interest for the program.

Clearly, the experience of last few years had shown my concern was not unfounded. They basically wasted at least six years going nowhere, and the Western sanctions on Russia had just driven the last nail on the coffin.

Now, about the potential Western sanctions. You can never rule it out. It could yet happen and Russia has been a cautionary tale. Sanctioning China though has much higher threshold than doing that to Russia; semiconductor industry is a different industry for the US than aviation. China should be better prepared with Plan B, and sanctions, should they happen, will slow down the C-929 project, not to kill it. But on balance, collaborating with Western partners is still a better idea. In any case, China can still enlist Russia as suppliers, just as they did in some military programs.

C-929 project is not as important as C-919 for China. It's been a dozen years since China and Russia began to discuss about partnership on C-9292. China is now exponentially more experienced in aviation industry with much better industrial and technology base. If it slows down, it slows down, but China's strategic goal of developing its own indigenous aviation industry is unwavering.

Note that my opinion above is not rooted in any anti-Russia sentiment. Russia has every right & reason to want to participate such a strategic program on its own term, so does China. History has shown that China must be in the driver's seat if it wants to develop its own strategic industry, even if it takes longer.

Of course. Except I don't think the sanctions delayed the program in any major way. At least so far.

1. The C-929 was always expected to fly initially with Western engines. With the Chinese and Russian ones to follow. So it is not like they were waiting for Russian engines.

2. Thus far the sanctions also had no effect on the production of the test wings in Russia either.

3. Collaboration on aircraft design and wind tunnel testing at facilities in Russia continues as scheduled.

As for any supposed massive delays in the program, just look at how ARJ-21 and C-919 took to get started, and then tell me there is a delay with the C-929. There isn't one. At least so far. The changes to the program were mainly cosmetic, but I agree with you that it is an improvement at least in terms of management of the project, since now there is a single driver that is China.

gelgoog said:

Of course. Except I don't think the sanctions delayed the program in any major way. At least so far.

1. The C-929 was always expected to fly initially with Western engines. With the Chinese and Russian ones to follow. So it is not like they were waiting for Russian engines.

2. Thus far the sanctions also had no effect on the production of the test wings in Russia either.

3. Collaboration on aircraft design and wind tunnel testing at facilities in Russia continues as scheduled.

As for any supposed massive delays in the program, just look at how ARJ-21 and C-919 took to get started, and then tell me there is a delay with the C-929. There isn't one. At least so far. The changes to the program were mainly cosmetic, but I agree with you that it is an improvement at least in terms of management of the project, since now there is a single driver that is China.

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I don't think sanction has delayed the program so far. I think harmonizing the two sides' requirements and roles and participation in the program has really taken its toll on the progress. Also the two sides have different styles and attitudes; such cultural differences and other intangibles can also be barriers. Russia and China have never worked as equal partners in such a strategic program. Someone has to take the lead.

With sanctions, the two sides diverge further. CR-929 no longer serve Russia's urgent need and Russia now has other priorities. So it's the right decision for both sides to part way on this program. Russia can still be suppliers.

The Russians have other priorities, but they are still spending quite a lot on this program and related widebody aircraft activities.

The Russians are currently flight testing the Il-96-400M widebody. And while most of the technology used in that aircraft already existed, like the basic airframe design and the PS-90A1 engines, they designed a whole new glass cockpit for it. I wouldn't be surprised if the avionics were new.

CIAM finished bench testing the PD-35 gas generator recently:

The Russian government will then have to make a decision on the size of the engine to be initially produced based on this technology. It remains to be seen if this will be a 35 ton engine, or a 28 ton engine, or some other power rating. The Russian aviation industry probably wants the 35 ton engine so it can be used on the civilian widebody aircraft, an Il-96 with a new wing and two engines, and the Slon next generation transporter aka PAK-VTA. But the Russian Defense Ministry seems to want an 28 ton engine for the An-124 and to resume its production. If they pick the 28 ton engine, then the 35 ton engine project will probably be delayed past 2030 and won't be available as an option for the C-929.

The Russians are still doing massive spending on the civilian transportation sector. If anything the sanctions only accelerated the spending. Because for a country as large as Russia, with little high speed rail, they need the long haul aircraft.