COMAC C919

Franklin said:

Here is the problem with the C-919. If it becomes too successful then the West will simply cut off access to critical components. It will become the new Huawei.

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I'm 100% sure that this is the actual plan. It will be done in the summer of 2024, for Biden's presidential re-election.

Hope that COMAC has stockpiled some "CFM International LEAP" engines. However, I think that there's a distinct possibility that GE has purposely slow-walked engine delivery per imperial instructions.

Hadoren said:

I'm 100% sure that this is the actual plan. It will be done in the summer of 2024, for Biden's presidential re-election.

Hope that COMAC has stockpiled some "CFM International LEAP" engines. However, I think that there's a distinct possibility that GE has purposely slow-walked engine delivery per imperial instructions.

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its too late to stop C919 now..

China already has complete supply chain of large aircraft. thanks to Y-20 aircraft.

we literally don't care even if GE cut off the supply of Engines.

COMAC planning to integrate CJ-1000 into supply chain from 2025 onward.

Yes, since they started flight tests on the CJ-1000A engine this year, so one year for certification, and another year to test it on the aircraft, and then start production could be enough. But given the prodigious amount of time they took testing the WS-20 I wouldn't bet on it. I mean I hope they go get it into production by 2025. But I would not bet on it.

Hadoren said:

I'm 100% sure that this is the actual plan. It will be done in the summer of 2024, for Biden's presidential re-election.

Hope that COMAC has stockpiled some "CFM International LEAP" engines. However, I think that there's a distinct possibility that GE has purposely slow-walked engine delivery per imperial instructions.

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Again, this is a problem whenever people talk about this program. What if it get sanctioned?

Well, that's something you just have to deal with if it happens.

Until then, COMAC has a need in actually supporting this aircraft and getting it into a viable commercial product. Believe it or not, that's a very hard thing to do.

If you can't even walk, why are you concerned about someone stopping you from running?

People spend so much time on this forum obsessed about semiconductors and have no idea just how complicated it is to have a viable commercial aircraft.

Do you people know that A220 (despite all the platitude) is nicknamed the "hangar queen" by pilots of some of its largest operators? Getting C919 into a sustainable state will take a while. China will get its EUV into production before C919 is competitive with A320NEO on CASM.

Full information in the provided link

SHANGHAI, Sept. 28 (Xinhua) -- China Eastern Airlines signed a purchase contract on Thursday with Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC) for an additional 100 C919 planes, marking the largest single order for the China-developed large passenger aircraft.

According to the plan, the new C919 aircraft purchased by the airline company will be delivered in batches from 2024 to 2031.

Zhang Yuan, general manager of the planning department at China Eastern Airlines, said that the new purchase deal is being made at a time when the civil aviation market holds significant potential, the airline is in need of fleet renewal, and the C919 has demonstrated promising initial commercial performance.

China Eastern Airlines placed an order for five C919 planes in 2021. The company has taken delivery of two jets and put them into operation on the air route between the cities of Shanghai and Chengdu.

As of Sept. 26, the two planes have accumulated more than 1,140 flight hours, including over 867 hours in commercial operations. They have completed 296 commercial flight trips, carrying over 35,000 passengers.

gelgoog said:

Yes, since they started flight tests on the CJ-1000A engine this year, so one year for certification, and another year to test it on the aircraft, and then start production could be enough. But given the prodigious amount of time they took testing the WS-20 I wouldn't bet on it. I mean I hope they go get it into production by 2025. But I would not bet on it.

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You take the time with your early projects so you have the experience to move faster in your later ones. The tech and project development leap before WS-20 to WS-20 was much bigger than the leap from WS-20 to CJ-1000.

My thoughts on possible sanctions.

This certainly is a major concern. Especially in engines, so the domestic engine option is needed.

You need a publicly visible non Western option for the threat of sanctions to go away. Also would then allow exports to Iran, Cuba and places like that.

But that's just one of many challenges facing the program. I wouldn't exactly put it as my top concern right now.

The big fear is when us govt notice that c919 replaced 737s and take actions. You may need to buy some more 787s to give yourself more time.

But until then, get more aircraft into service with more airlines and validate their performance. Just because you have a flying product, doesn't mean the hard work is done.

tphuang said:

The big fear is when us govt notice that c919 replaced 737s and take actions.

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If sanctions forced COMAC to halt the production of C919, I expect every C919 order would be replaced by an Airbus A320 order. So I'm not sure if Boeing has actually lost the sale of even a single 737 because of the C919. Airbus is probably the only one losing sales to the C919. So I think Airbus would be the only beneficiary to a U.S. sanction of COMAC.

tphuang said:

The big fear is when us govt notice that c919 replaced 737s and take actions. You may need to buy some more 787s to give yourself more time.

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I would not bet on that mollifying the US. Russia tried doing something similar back in Yeltsin's time, they bought 737s from Boeing, and expected US cooperation in modifying the Il-96 to use US engines from Pratt & Whitney. Well the Russians did buy those 737s, but those US engines for the Il-96 never came, and the US then "convinced" Aeroflot to buy Boeing 767s and other Boeing aircraft.

THX 1138 said:

If sanctions forced COMAC to halt the production of C919, I expect every C919 order would be replaced by an Airbus A320 order. So I'm not sure if Boeing has actually lost the sale of even a single 737 because of the C919. Airbus is probably the only one losing sales to the C919. So I think Airbus would be the only beneficiary to a U.S. sanction of COMAC.

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Well Airbus just does not have the spare capacity to replace every Boeing order. They already switched the A380 production facility in Toulouse to build more A320NEO and are going to build a new A320NEO facility in Tianjin, but even then that will only cover existing demand.
There is also the possibility the US would then forbid the exports of engines with any US technology to China just out of spite. Since the A320NEO runs on the CFM Leap (GE-Safran) or Pratt & Whitney engines that would mean there would then be no engine for those aircraft.

THX 1138 said:

If sanctions forced COMAC to halt the production of C919, I expect every C919 order would be replaced by an Airbus A320 order. So I'm not sure if Boeing has actually lost the sale of even a single 737 because of the C919. Airbus is probably the only one losing sales to the C919. So I think Airbus would be the only beneficiary to a U.S. sanction of COMAC.

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doesn't work that way. A320 production line is fully booked for years to come. Airbus can't keep up with the demand. That's why the increase to 75/month (including 12/month in Tianjin)

I've said this a while. that 12/month is a great opportunity for Chinese supply chain. If they can showcase themselves in C919 project, then they can get pulled into Airbus supply chain. It's always cheaper for a business to get local suppliers.

If C919s don't come in large numbers, Chinese airlines will have to buy or lease 737s to keep up with demand. Remember, many of the 737s are really old in the tooth