COMAC C919

Helius · Sep 29, 2023

One thing people often overlook is that Safran has factories in China that produce the actual engine parts which are then shipped to their 'factory' in France, which is basically an assembly plant, to be put together then shipped back to China or anywhere else in the world, just so their engines can be called "Made in the West".

If they cut off China's engine access, they're basically sanctioning CFM itself and any country with any plane with a CFM engine on it.

I'd love to see someone retarded enough to put forward such a notion and the ensuing fallout not from the Chinese, as they can just sit back and watch the chaos unfold.

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siegecrossbow · Sep 29, 2023

Helius said:
One thing people often overlook is that Safran has factories in China that produce the actual engine parts which are then shipped to their 'factory' in France, which is basically an assembly plant, to be put together then shipped back to China or anywhere else in the world, just so their engines can be called "Made in the West".

If they cut off China's engine access, they're basically sanctioning CFM itself and any country with any plane with a CFM engine on it.

I'd love to see someone retarded enough to put forward such a notion and the ensuing fallout not from the Chinese, as they can just sit back and watch the chaos unfold.

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Chinese turbofan progress based on illegally ripping off Western engine designs confirmed!

Blitzo · Sep 29, 2023

Helius said:
One thing people often overlook is that Safran has factories in China that produce the actual engine parts which are then shipped to their 'factory' in France, which is basically an assembly plant, to be put together then shipped back to China or anywhere else in the world, just so their engines can be called "Made in the West".

If they cut off China's engine access, they're basically sanctioning CFM itself and any country with any plane with a CFM engine on it.

I'd love to see someone retarded enough to put forward such a notion and the ensuing fallout not from the Chinese, as they can just sit back and watch the chaos unfold.

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That really depends on the specifics of what parts are produced in China versus the rest of the world.

China being suppliers for some engine related components doesn't mean that if push comes to shove, that China's role in the supply chain cannot be duplicated or replaced elsewhere with a bit of money and time.

Which is to say, unless Chinese production sites are making the high technology components of the engines that few other locations on the planet can make, then it is actually fairly viable for them to choose to cut China out of the supply chain if they really want to.

sunnymaxi · Sep 29, 2023

Blitzo said:
That really depends on the specifics of what parts are produced in China versus the rest of the world.

China being suppliers for some engine related components doesn't mean that if push comes to shove, that China's role in the supply chain cannot be duplicated or replaced elsewhere with a bit of money and time.

Which is to say, unless Chinese production sites are making the high technology components of the engines that few other locations on the planet can make, then it is actually fairly viable for them to choose to cut China out of the supply chain if they really want to.

Safran has very deep roots in Mainland with significant investment ..

Four production plants if we include all. Nacelle/Landing gear system and other aircraft parts.

Three training facilities with research and development labs.

Safran has two major engine components manufacturing plants in mainland Guiyang and Suzhou.

Safran has been manufacturing engine blades at its Guiyang plant since 2006, and the plant will have revenue of US$23 million in 2022. It is expected that after the second phase of the project is put into production, it will increase to US$40 million. The Guiyang factory has added 80 new employees in the past two years. The factory currently has 210 employees and will increase to 250 by the end of 2023..

on September 5, 2023 that Safran SNECMA officially announced its Guiyang factory expansion. US$30 million has been invested in the plant, which includes machinery and equipment to manufacture melted wax cast low-pressure turbine blades, airfoils and seals for CFM56 and Leap engines.

LEAP engines supply can be cut off. because no critical component of LEAP engine currently manufacture in China by Safran. mostly are low pressure turbine blades. chances are extremely less. but you never know. what tomorrow will bring

according to my source. COMAC planning to integrate CJ-1000 into supply chain of C919 from 2025 onward ..

***********************************************************
A Chinese company Wuxi Turbine Co. Ltd is also part of the LEAP series engines supply chain

company's statement -

We have developed compressor blades of LEAP series (this engine is dominant in 150-seat single-aisle airliners such as A320, Boeing 737 and C919), CFM56 series, CF34, CF6, PP20, LMS100 and LM9000 for Safran and GM, covering more than 50 stages of blades..

Blitzo · Sep 29, 2023

sunnymaxi said:
Safran has very deep roots in Mainland with significant investment ..

Four production plants if we include all. Nacelle/Landing gear system and other aircraft parts.

Three training facilities with research and development labs.

Safran has two major engine components manufacturing plants in mainland Guiyang and Suzhou.

Safran has been manufacturing engine blades at its Guiyang plant since 2006, and the plant will have revenue of US$23 million in 2022. It is expected that after the second phase of the project is put into production, it will increase to US$40 million. The Guiyang factory has added 80 new employees in the past two years. The factory currently has 210 employees and will increase to 250 by the end of 2023..

on September 5, 2023 that Safran SNECMA officially announced its Guiyang factory expansion. US$30 million has been invested in the plant, which includes machinery and equipment to manufacture melted wax cast low-pressure turbine blades, airfoils and seals for CFM56 and Leap engines.

View attachment 119480

LEAP engines supply can be cut off. because no critical component of LEAP engine currently manufacture in China by Safran. mostly are low pressure turbine blades. chances are extremely less. but you never know. what tomorrow will bring

according to my source. COMAC planning to integrate CJ-1000 into supply chain of C919 from 2025 onward ..

***********************************************************
A Chinese company Wuxi Turbine Co. Ltd is also part of the LEAP series engines supply chain

company's statement -

We have developed compressor blades of LEAP series (this engine is dominant in 150-seat single-aisle airliners such as A320, Boeing 737 and C919), CFM56 series, CF34, CF6, PP20, LMS100 and LM9000 for Safran and GM, covering more than 50 stages of blades..

Again, all of this is inconsequential if their Chinese suppliers do not provide any systems or components which cannot be easily produced elsewhere.

In context of the discussion above about China being a supplier to Safran as a major complicating factor if sanctions were carried out, the extent of that complexity will wholly depend on what technologies China actually produces and how much of it that the rest of the world is actually dependent on.

Merely being part of the supply chain isn't enough, if their supply is replaceable by other factories in the world, or if their supply does not capture significant dependency by the rest of the world.

supersnoop · Sep 29, 2023

Blitzo said:
Again, all of this is inconsequential if their Chinese suppliers do not provide any systems or components which cannot be easily produced elsewhere.

In context of the discussion above about China being a supplier to Safran as a major complicating factor if sanctions were carried out, the extent of that complexity will wholly depend on what technologies China actually produces and how much of it that the rest of the world is actually dependent on.

Merely being part of the supply chain isn't enough, if their supply is replaceable by other factories in the world, or if their supply does not capture significant dependency by the rest of the world.

It's actually easy to tell, revenue of $23m per year from above, ~1500 LEAPs/year, ~$15m/engine (correct me if I'm wrong on these numbers, just quickly googled them), it means these parts are less than 1% of the value. Probably not a big deal.

That being said, something complex like aerospace industry, you need endless certifications and quality systems in place, not just on a per company level, but probably per site, so it is difficult to get up and running. If anything disastrous happens, NTSB will trace down to the screw.

Finally, it is always easier said than done. Even if this plant is just making rivets, you just assume any rivet factory is the same. So you go to the Bulgarian rivet factory, give them the specs, and they can't seem to get on spec by 2mm because their equipment is older, or doesn't operate on that precision, etc. Now your robot can't drive the rivet because it can't tolerate that seemingly minute 2mm difference.

Other non-technical factors
- LEAP program already has a big backlog, so any delays due to new certification of parts will make this worse
- New plants are difficult to get running also because of bureaucratic red tape (can you get 3 levels of government to agree?) and labour shortages (Construction trades in short supply, skilled machinists in short supply and neither occupations are improving)

huemens · Sep 30, 2023

Helius said:
One thing people often overlook is that Safran has factories in China that produce the actual engine parts which are then shipped to their 'factory' in France, which is basically an assembly plant, to be put together then shipped back to China or anywhere else in the world, just so their engines can be called "Made in the West".

If they cut off China's engine access, they're basically sanctioning CFM itself and any country with any plane with a CFM engine on it.

I'd love to see someone retarded enough to put forward such a notion and the ensuing fallout not from the Chinese, as they can just sit back and watch the chaos unfold.

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It also depends on whether China is willing to do any retaliatory sanctions like that. So far China has done very little or no export restrictions in retaliation to similar sanctions from the US. Even if China gets cutoff from LEAP it is still beneficial for China to keep the supply chain functional because, it contributes to Chinese economy and retains domestic talent which could be useful for other Chinese companies.
For example, US banned Nvidia from selling H100 chips to china. But at the time the development of that chip was actually being done in China and the final assembly was also likely being done in China because the global shipments for it was being done from China. China did not do anything to disrupt that even though they were cut off from H100 with immediate effect. Nvidia instead had to get a license from US to continue the operations to develop a Chip in china that it is not allowed to sell to Chinese customers.

TK3600 · Oct 3, 2023

CJ-1000 is coming, it is public knowledge. They know any sanction of LEAP is impotent. With Huawei at least they could tell themselves there is no alternative scheduled to come 1 year later.

Besides, one big part of commercial plane is managing the maintenance. Even if no more plane is rolling off the factory for a year just having some plane out there flying there will be experience gained maintaining the model. The experience is easily transfered in case plane do an engine swap. The certification is also considerably shorter compared to a new model.

sahureka · Oct 4, 2023

TK3600 said:
CJ-1000 is coming, it is public knowledge. They know any sanction of LEAP is impotent. With Huawei at least they could tell themselves there is no alternative scheduled to come 1 year later.

Besides, one big part of commercial plane is managing the maintenance. Even if no more plane is rolling off the factory for a year just having some plane out there flying there will be experience gained maintaining the model. The experience is easily transfered in case plane do an engine swap. The certification is also considerably shorter compared to a new model.

Of course it is excellent to have the national engine alternative available, but we must always consider that the C919 aircraft still contains many parts made by partners in the Western bloc.
Therefore, to be sure that the C919 can continue to be produced even in the event (hopefully never) of sanctions or embargoes being imposed, it would be appropriate to develop a version, C919(X) with completely national components, which could be put into production on a line parallel to the current one and even if it does not receive EASA / FAA / TCCA certifications, with only the Certificate by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) it can be used at a national level and among friendly nations that recognize it.

Maikeru · Oct 4, 2023

sahureka said:
Of course it is excellent to have the national engine alternative available, but we must always consider that the C919 aircraft still contains many parts made by partners in the Western bloc.
Therefore, to be sure that the C919 can continue to be produced even in the event (hopefully never) of sanctions or embargoes being imposed, it would be appropriate to develop a version, C919(X) with completely national components, which could be put into production on a line parallel to the current one and even if it does not receive EASA / FAA / TCCA certifications, with only the Certificate by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) it can be used at a national level and among friendly nations that recognize it.

I would have thought the best way to achieve this would be to develop military versions:
AEW
ASW
EW
VVIP transport

Surprised this isn't already on the cards, to be honest.

COMAC C919

Helius

Senior Member

siegecrossbow

General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

sunnymaxi

Major

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

supersnoop

Major

huemens

Junior Member

TK3600

Major

sahureka

Junior Member

Maikeru

Major