Read more this thread and you will know China going to dominate.
Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
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Read more this thread and you will know China going to dominate.
Self-reliance is feasible within the foreseeable future. But dominance is quite far off.
I just read YMTC going to build 3 new fabs with each 100,000 wpm.
First, data is from 2024. In China's semiconductor (and others) industry, 2 years is a very long time.
Second, it tracks value added which almost always lags actual technical capability due to after having that capability then having to expand production capacity which takes time.
Then you should also have read about the market share in question, as noted by the same source. YMTC won't be leading, much less dominant. Again, self-reliance is realistic but it's way too early to be talking about dominance.
YMTC fab 2 already has fully domestic production line. News of fab 3 completing construction appeared on local newspaper in Jan & likely they will use mostly domestic tools if not all.
just yesterday Reuters break the exclusive information. YMTC adding two more fabs besides their fab3 in Wuhan. same CXMT is doing and adding additional capacity.
self-reliance goal has almost achieved in Memory. memory is one of the industry where Chinese players are close to leading edge right now obviously alongside other top players like Hynix and SS.
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YMTC is leader in Hybrid Bonding Tech. its also called ''Xtacking'' and Samsung reportedly signed a patent licensing agreement with YMTC for 400 layers Flash memory.
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the conclusion is, YMTC/CXMT rapidly gaining market share with keep adding additional capacity that too using local tools/equipment.
But dominance ? not yet but that is not quite far off.
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Memory fabs using fully domestic tools would be huge. that Chinese mature node fabs (28nm+) has taken 70% of order at the start of this year due to prices being 30-40% lower than global from using domestic equipment.
YMTC/CXMT being 30-40% cheaper than competitors would allow them to win a massive price war especially when the downcycle starts
Wrong.
To start, anything made by a think tank I would immediately dismissed as bullshit or at best, bias.
Second, what its matters is not global, what its matters is local, I have my doubts that the semiconductor industry association has the real numbers on China given that a lot is being kept under the shadows.
The estimate is that domestic market share of domestic tools has reached 50% overall and is likely to grow to 80% as US impose more export controls. New fabs are required to source 50% of their tools domestically, depending the product there are already fabs close to 100% domestic and fabs in the export control list have no other option than going full domestic.
very interesting, Iran war is hurt supply of Bromine, which Koreans import 97.5% from Israel. Hurt due to ICL getting attacked by Iran. China could try to increase local production, but this is a case where Dead Sea is where all the bromine comes from and China's own salt lakes don't have as much bromine
Jinhong gas has signed agreement with major memory chip producer to supply Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Gas.
I think the global market share of equipment in China should be approaching 15% or more. Naura alone is already 7 billion. The market share of EDA and IP is also way higher. Hisilicon alone is a big design company. CPU and GPU companies also selling more than ever before give the massive size and the speed of the Chinese market.