Chinese semiconductor thread II

[pbd456]

This seems related to chips with 30 billion transistors or more.

US bans sales of 14nm and 16nm chips with over 30 billion transistors to China​

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Mainly US administration forces Chinese design companies that use TSMC for manufacturing to also use approved OSAT (i.e. American ones) for packaging.

It seems a kind of blackmail: "if you want to use TSMC, then you have to use US OSAT".

This will definitely have an impact in the short term, let's say in 2025. I'm thinking for instance at the new ADAS chips for autonomous driving. I don't know if Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame and the others use TSMC foundry services. If this is the case, they will surely have an impact....maybe not an unexpected one though, considering that ADAS chips are a kind of AI chips and that tran ADAS market will be a huge thing in the next 1/2 years. Currently the incumbent is NVIDIA, but of course Chinese automotive companies cannot rely on NVIDIA.

From China POW the only way out is for SMIC to grow capacity in the advanced nodes.

Recently there have been rumors of SMIC starting a price war in the 28nm node, it is a sign of good free capacity there. They should urgently move that capacity down to 14/16. Where "urgently" means within end of 2025. I don't know if it is technically feasible, apparently the main Chinese SME vendors are already there...with the big question mark on SMEE.

Unfortunately SMEE proves itself once again the weak link in the supply chain. The SMEE train keeps running 2 years behind schedule. This is proving painful once again.

The delay of SMEE was accumulated all before 2019, when at SMEE the old management was allowed to fake litho machines prototypes paid with government money. At the time ASML supply was considered eternal and bullet proof. A serious oversight that China is still paying today.

Do 14nm or 16nm process build chips with over 30B transistors?

 

[european_guy]

Chinese firms still buying large number of DUV's from ASML.. so they can expand 14nm/16nm with rest tools from Chinese companies. all Non-litho tools are completed and entered in production. i don't see any big issue in this expansion..

that Optics Valley conference in summer 2024, they confirmed DUVi.. completed , tested and debugged.. all critical steps have passed so what's stopped SMEE to announce or at least give some hint.. you also post the pic of SSA800i scanner..

I think ASML DUVi is now banned in China

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exports of DUV immersion lithography systems to these specific locations could also be affected

Regarding Optic Valley conference and the pic of SSA800i scanner, it was expressly labeled for 28nm, not 14/16nm.

Of course DUVi is needed also for 28nm, but for 14/16 you need a better machine, with stricter overlay tolerances. As of today I have read no info on SMEE to be at 14/16nm.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Of course DUVi is needed also for 28nm, but for 14/16 you need a better machine, with stricter overlay tolerances. As of today I have read no info on SMEE to be at 14/16nm.

just look at this pattern..

SMEE released 7nm capable Overlay Metrology tool in 2024.

SMEE released high end optical defect inspection tool last month.

SMEE won the bidding for 4 After Developing Inspection (ADI) tools. SMEE made this tools to go along their lithography tools. they said that their overlay tools can be used till a 7nm process. Overlay tools are couple with Lithography Machines and the Lithography process to "fine tune" the lithography machine in order to pattern the next layer..
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SMEE don't work alone in R&D.. they have collaboration with CAS and other top institutes..

CAS and SMEE has solved the overlay problem in China with grating systems and new mark system, from now on ALL SMEE machines will have superior enhanced performance and precision.


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there is one more very critical component for 14nm and below..

U-Precision completed more precise next gen grating interferometers for EUV scanners and immersion scanners for below 14nm nodes, sub-nanometer accuracy..






with all these developments, looks like SMEE SSA800i targeting 14nm and below..

 

[tphuang]

just look at this pattern..

SMEE released 7nm capable Overlay Metrology tool in 2024.

SMEE released high end optical defect inspection tool last month.

SMEE won the bidding for 4 After Developing Inspection (ADI) tools. SMEE made this tools to go along their lithography tools. they said that their overlay tools can be used till a 7nm process. Overlay tools are couple with Lithography Machines and the Lithography process to "fine tune" the lithography machine in order to pattern the next layer..
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMEE don't work alone in R&D.. they have collaboration with CAS and other top institutes..

CAS and SMEE has solved the overlay problem in China with grating systems and new mark system, from now on ALL SMEE machines will have superior enhanced performance and precision.
View attachment 145246

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there is one more very critical component for 14nm and below..

U-Precision completed more precise next gen grating interferometers for EUV scanners and immersion scanners for below 14nm nodes, sub-nanometer accuracy..

View attachment 145247


View attachment 145248

with all these developments, looks like SMEE SSA800i targeting 14nm and below..

There is no point in this case saying they are targeting 14nm and below. The machines will only be used in those processes once a fab has validated them for those nodes.

I think it's important for us to not over state SMEE's current status. We simply don't know for sure if it's DUVi machines are in HVM with SMIC or one of the other major fabs. And even if it is being used for 40nm or 28nm, it will still take time to be validated for more advanced nodes.

I've said this a while ago, They have all the ASML machines they need to increase capacity at SMSC plants to 70k wpm. so 7-14nm capacity was more about other equipment.