The delay is more likely about software issues. Wechat's HMOS Next version is still not finished.
Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
- Start date
The report seems kind of bogus. If you go to CXMT's website they still do not have DDR5 and LPDDR5X available.
The expansion to 200,000 wafers per month would be normal since they doubled their fab floorspace.
But they supposedly are under sanctions for buying the latest tools, so there is a question about the memory densities they can achieve.
Here is a machine translation of that news:
According to reports on September 5, Korean media ZDnet Korea reported that Chinese DRAM chip companies are rapidly expanding their production capacity, and the market is worried that Samsung and SK Hynix’s traditional DRAM profits will decline.
According to reports, after its establishment in 2016, Changxin Memory has become the largest local DRAM manufacturer with the support of the Chinese government. It not only focuses on traditional DRAM, but also prepares to enter HBM (high bandwidth memory).
Changxin Memory's total DRAM production capacity is estimated to grow rapidly from 70,000 pieces per month in 2022 to 120,000 pieces per month in 2023, and to 200,000 pieces per month this year. Changxin Memory's main products include 17nm and 18nm DDR4 and LPDDR4, and its latest DRAM products are 12nm DDR5 and LPDDR5X. Changxin Memory is also making plans.
Changxin Memory is actively expanding its DRAM production capacity, which may have a negative impact on the sales and profits of Korean memory manufacturers. According to data from DRAM Exchange, a market research and survey company, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 rose from US$3 in the second half of 2023 to US$3.5 in the first half of this year, and is expected to fall slightly back to US$3.3 in the second half of this year.
For DDR5, the price has risen from US$4.2 in October 2023 to more than US$4.5 in the first half of this year, and will continue to rise to nearly US$5 in the second half of the year. As of the end of August, the premium of DDR5 over DDR4 has risen sharply to 53.9%, which is much higher than 36.9% six months ago.
Nomura Securities recently reported that Chinese companies are rapidly expanding production, and the profits of the DRAM industry will be negatively affected, and they need to be prepared for the impact. The output of China Changxin Storage accounts for about 5% of the total market, which has the opportunity to affect prices.
Samsung and SK Hynix are competing to invest in advanced DRAM production capacity, such as 12nm grade DDR5, and higher value HBM.
Market participants pointed out that it is generally confirmed that Changxin Memory will receive a large number of orders this year, and the market is very interested in equipment investment by Chinese memory companies such as Changxin Memory and Yangtze Memory this year. This year, China’s semiconductor equipment spending also surpassed South Korea and jumped to first place.
The expansion to 200,000 wafers per month would be normal since they doubled their fab floorspace.
But they supposedly are under sanctions for buying the latest tools, so there is a question about the memory densities they can achieve.
Here is a machine translation of that news:
Changxin Memory’s production capacity will reach 200,000 pieces/month by the end of this year
September 5, 2024According to reports on September 5, Korean media ZDnet Korea reported that Chinese DRAM chip companies are rapidly expanding their production capacity, and the market is worried that Samsung and SK Hynix’s traditional DRAM profits will decline.
According to reports, after its establishment in 2016, Changxin Memory has become the largest local DRAM manufacturer with the support of the Chinese government. It not only focuses on traditional DRAM, but also prepares to enter HBM (high bandwidth memory).
Changxin Memory's total DRAM production capacity is estimated to grow rapidly from 70,000 pieces per month in 2022 to 120,000 pieces per month in 2023, and to 200,000 pieces per month this year. Changxin Memory's main products include 17nm and 18nm DDR4 and LPDDR4, and its latest DRAM products are 12nm DDR5 and LPDDR5X. Changxin Memory is also making plans.
Changxin Memory is actively expanding its DRAM production capacity, which may have a negative impact on the sales and profits of Korean memory manufacturers. According to data from DRAM Exchange, a market research and survey company, the spot price of 16Gb DDR4 rose from US$3 in the second half of 2023 to US$3.5 in the first half of this year, and is expected to fall slightly back to US$3.3 in the second half of this year.
For DDR5, the price has risen from US$4.2 in October 2023 to more than US$4.5 in the first half of this year, and will continue to rise to nearly US$5 in the second half of the year. As of the end of August, the premium of DDR5 over DDR4 has risen sharply to 53.9%, which is much higher than 36.9% six months ago.
Nomura Securities recently reported that Chinese companies are rapidly expanding production, and the profits of the DRAM industry will be negatively affected, and they need to be prepared for the impact. The output of China Changxin Storage accounts for about 5% of the total market, which has the opportunity to affect prices.
Samsung and SK Hynix are competing to invest in advanced DRAM production capacity, such as 12nm grade DDR5, and higher value HBM.
Market participants pointed out that it is generally confirmed that Changxin Memory will receive a large number of orders this year, and the market is very interested in equipment investment by Chinese memory companies such as Changxin Memory and Yangtze Memory this year. This year, China’s semiconductor equipment spending also surpassed South Korea and jumped to first place.
I found the original South Korean article. The contents are different.
Chinese DRAM supply offensive is serious… Samsung and SK Hynix are also busy monitoring the trend
Aggressive expansion of legacy DRAMs such as CXMT… domestic industry pays attention to aftereffects
2024/09/05 Modified: 2024/09/06
Chinese memory companies such as Changxin Memory (CXMT) are being watched closely as they aggressively expand their production capacity and production volume. Domestic companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also known to be actively monitoring their trends as this could have a negative impact on the profitability of legacy DRAMs.
According to industry sources on the 5th, there are concerns that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's legacy DRAM businesses will see a decline in profitability due to the rapid expansion of production capacity by Chinese memory companies.
Currently, China is expanding its production capacity, focusing on legacy DRAMs. Major Chinese DRAM manufacturers include Changxin Memory (CXMT) and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (JHICC). In particular, CXMT has grown into the largest local DRAM manufacturer under the support of the Chinese government since its establishment in 2016. Recently, it has also begun preparing for mass production of HBM (high bandwidth memory).
Industry and securities firms estimate that CXMT's total DRAM production capacity will grow rapidly from 70,000 units per month in 2022 to 120,000 units per month in 2023 and 200,000 units per month this year.
The main products are DDR4 and LPDDR4 based on the 17 and 18 nanometer (nm) process. Considering that the most advanced DRAMs currently being mass-produced are DDR5 and LPDDR5X based on the 12 nanometer process, they are considered mature (legacy) products.
Nevertheless, the industry is paying considerable attention to CXMT's expansion of production capacity, as CXMT's aggressive expansion of DRAM supply beyond initial expectations could have a negative impact on domestic legacy memory sales and profitability.
In fact, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the spot price of 16Gb (gigabit) DDR4 rose from $3 in the second half of last year to $3.50 in the first half of this year, before falling to $3.30 in the second half of this year.
In the case of DDR5, it went from $4.2 in October last year to over $4.5 in the first half of this year, and is approaching $5 in the second half of this year. Accordingly, the price premium attached to DDR5 over DDR4 also increased significantly, reaching 53.9% as of the end of last month, compared to 36.9% six months ago.
Nomura Securities recently said in a report that "the memory industry is expected to be hit even harder by the rapid expansion of production by Chinese companies, so it needs to prepare for this," adding that "CXMT, in particular, has already secured a monthly production capacity of 160,000 units through massive facility investment, which accounts for about 10% of the entire DRAM market in terms of wafers and about 5% in terms of bits."
Domestic memory device manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rushing to invest in transitioning to the most advanced DRAMs such as DDR5 at the 12nm level. At the same time, they are also actively monitoring investment trends in the Chinese memory industry.
A domestic semiconductor industry insider explained, " We have confirmed a significant amount of product orders from CXMT this year", and "Domestic memory companies are also deeply interested in CXMT's investment trends, and have recently received inquiries related to it."
Another official said, "This year, Chinese memory companies such as CXMT and YMTC are making very active investments in facilities," and "CXMT, in particular, introduced facilities in its Beijing fab in China in the first half of this year that exceeded initial industry expectations."
Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of production capacity in the Chinese memory industry is largely attributed to the US semiconductor export regulations. In October 2022, the US government implemented regulations that effectively prohibited the flow of semiconductor equipment and technology from the US to China. The scope includes DRAMs of 18 nanometers (nm) or less, NAND flash of 128 layers or more, and system semiconductors of 14 nanometers or less.
A semiconductor industry insider explained, "Currently, Chinese semiconductor companies are rushing to invest in facilities due to concerns about strengthening U.S. regulations," and "It is difficult to predict the upcoming impact, such as the U.S. presidential election, so they are focusing on short-term investments rather than a mid- to long-term roadmap."
Chinese DRAM supply offensive is serious… Samsung and SK Hynix are also busy monitoring the trend
Aggressive expansion of legacy DRAMs such as CXMT… domestic industry pays attention to aftereffects
2024/09/05 Modified: 2024/09/06
Chinese memory companies such as Changxin Memory (CXMT) are being watched closely as they aggressively expand their production capacity and production volume. Domestic companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also known to be actively monitoring their trends as this could have a negative impact on the profitability of legacy DRAMs.
According to industry sources on the 5th, there are concerns that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's legacy DRAM businesses will see a decline in profitability due to the rapid expansion of production capacity by Chinese memory companies.
Currently, China is expanding its production capacity, focusing on legacy DRAMs. Major Chinese DRAM manufacturers include Changxin Memory (CXMT) and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (JHICC). In particular, CXMT has grown into the largest local DRAM manufacturer under the support of the Chinese government since its establishment in 2016. Recently, it has also begun preparing for mass production of HBM (high bandwidth memory).
Industry and securities firms estimate that CXMT's total DRAM production capacity will grow rapidly from 70,000 units per month in 2022 to 120,000 units per month in 2023 and 200,000 units per month this year.
The main products are DDR4 and LPDDR4 based on the 17 and 18 nanometer (nm) process. Considering that the most advanced DRAMs currently being mass-produced are DDR5 and LPDDR5X based on the 12 nanometer process, they are considered mature (legacy) products.
Nevertheless, the industry is paying considerable attention to CXMT's expansion of production capacity, as CXMT's aggressive expansion of DRAM supply beyond initial expectations could have a negative impact on domestic legacy memory sales and profitability.
In fact, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the spot price of 16Gb (gigabit) DDR4 rose from $3 in the second half of last year to $3.50 in the first half of this year, before falling to $3.30 in the second half of this year.
In the case of DDR5, it went from $4.2 in October last year to over $4.5 in the first half of this year, and is approaching $5 in the second half of this year. Accordingly, the price premium attached to DDR5 over DDR4 also increased significantly, reaching 53.9% as of the end of last month, compared to 36.9% six months ago.
Nomura Securities recently said in a report that "the memory industry is expected to be hit even harder by the rapid expansion of production by Chinese companies, so it needs to prepare for this," adding that "CXMT, in particular, has already secured a monthly production capacity of 160,000 units through massive facility investment, which accounts for about 10% of the entire DRAM market in terms of wafers and about 5% in terms of bits."
Domestic memory device manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rushing to invest in transitioning to the most advanced DRAMs such as DDR5 at the 12nm level. At the same time, they are also actively monitoring investment trends in the Chinese memory industry.
A domestic semiconductor industry insider explained, " We have confirmed a significant amount of product orders from CXMT this year", and "Domestic memory companies are also deeply interested in CXMT's investment trends, and have recently received inquiries related to it."
Another official said, "This year, Chinese memory companies such as CXMT and YMTC are making very active investments in facilities," and "CXMT, in particular, introduced facilities in its Beijing fab in China in the first half of this year that exceeded initial industry expectations."
Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of production capacity in the Chinese memory industry is largely attributed to the US semiconductor export regulations. In October 2022, the US government implemented regulations that effectively prohibited the flow of semiconductor equipment and technology from the US to China. The scope includes DRAMs of 18 nanometers (nm) or less, NAND flash of 128 layers or more, and system semiconductors of 14 nanometers or less.
A semiconductor industry insider explained, "Currently, Chinese semiconductor companies are rushing to invest in facilities due to concerns about strengthening U.S. regulations," and "It is difficult to predict the upcoming impact, such as the U.S. presidential election, so they are focusing on short-term investments rather than a mid- to long-term roadmap."
It's probably your translation tool. I used google translate and the article doesn't say they have DDR5. It says that's what is the latest (in the industry), which Changxin is also planning to archive.
Assuming current capacity of 160Kwpm (300mm wafer) and 76.22mm2 for 16Gb, as per .
We have , assuming a conservative 70% yield, we have about 560 good dies per wafer, or 1120 GB per wafer.
Currently CXMT is still quite rare in smartphones, if 70% of production goes into PC/servers and only 30% into smartphones, we have:
160Kwpm -> 7.8M PC and 6.7M smartphones each month, where PC is 16GB ram, smartphone 8GB ram
If they reach 200Kwpm by end of the year, this translates into almost 10M PC and 8M smartphones each month.
Capacity for PC/Servers seems already enough, so probably they are thinking of seriously pushing into smartphones next year.
The figure should be 11M, I think. 30M would be way too much, especially for the premium market, since Apple doesn't sell much more than 20M of its latest model in any given year.
That said, when you count the P70 (reported sales expectations were 10M as well) and Mate X foldables, all Kirin systems could be 15-20M. That is a huge amount for company with supposed chips production issues.
Dutch government retakes export licensing of 2 ASML tools from US
The Dutch government is expanding the export licensing requirements for ASML's (NASDAQ:ASML) immersion DUV semiconductor equipment that would take oversight over them from the U.S. and align the policies of the two nations.
ASML said that following the updated license requirements, which come into effect Sept. 7, it will need to apply for export licenses with the Dutch government rather than the U.S. for shipments of its TWINSCAN NXT:1970i and 1980i DUV immersion lithography systems.
Sales of ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV, systems are also subject to license requirements, the company noted.
ASML added that the Dutch export license requirement was already in place for the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and subsequent DUV immersion systems.
ASML said that since it is a technical change, the announcement is not expected to have any impact on its financial outlook for 2024 or for our longer-term scenarios as provided on its Investor Day in November 2022.
"I'm making this decision for our safety," said Dutch Trade Minister Reinette Klever, according to a report from Reuters. "We see that due to technological developments there are more safety risks in the export of these specific production machines."
Last week, it was reported that Netherlands-based chip equipment maker ASML (ASML) was likely to see further limitations on its China operations as the Dutch government was considering not renewing crucial licenses.
In July, the U.S. government was thinking of imposing the most severe trade curbs available if companies, including ASML, continue to provide China access to advanced semiconductor technology. ASML was also being targeted by the U.S. because it has a monopoly on making some machines which produce the most advanced semiconductors. The Biden administration has been stepping up efforts to curb China's access to advance semiconductor equipment, which, among other things, is used in making AI products.
Facing U.S. pressure, Netherlands-based has never allowed ASML to ship its best EUV equipment to China, while it started requiring a license for NXT:2000 series and better of DUV tools in September 2023, as per the report from Reuters. ASML had informed Chinese customers not to expect delivery of those equipment starting in 2024.
Last year in October, the U.S. unilaterally started curbing ASML's shipment of the 1970i and 1980i systems, noting that they contained some U.S. parts. Some members of the Dutch parliament raised questions for The Netherlands' sovereignty, while ASML, struggled to keep up with separate licensing requirements in the U.S. and at home in The Netherlands.
The U.S. and its allies including The Netherlands, Germany, South Korea and Japan have all been tightening curbs on the China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. Earlier this week, China warned of strict economic reprisal against Japan if the country further curbed the sales and servicing of chipmaking tools to Chinese companies.
Buy the stock. We are about to see record buying before restrictions kick in.