Chinese semiconductor thread II

gelgoog

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The question is if these licensing requirements for immersion DUV apply to already made orders or not.

Assuming current capacity of 160Kwpm (300mm wafer) and 76.22mm2 for 16Gb, as per SK 1ynm technology of 2019.
CXMT is still at 12 Gb. D1x process.
The sanctions also mean they cannot get the tools to make higher density DRAM anymore. This impacted their 100,000 wpm expansion.
 
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tphuang

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The question is if these licensing requirements for immersion DUV apply to already made orders or not.


CXMT is still at 12 Gb. D1x process.
The sanctions also mean they cannot get the tools to make higher density DRAM anymore. This impacted their 100,000 wpm expansion.
Pretty sure they made good progress on D1z process. You don't need EUV for that. They can use the tools they bought prior to the sanctions for that. That's what they are using for LPDDR5. Whether they can get to D1a without EUV is a good question, but Micron did it.
 

tphuang

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sharks are circling around intel and it's busy laying people off. This is just rapidly falling apart. We will see where this leads to.

But from China's point of view, it gives Huawei time to catch up with its own server and PC CPUs.
 

tphuang

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Looks like this is the update, very similar content to the last posted article

The Netherlands will now cut off the supply of advanced chip machines that high-tech company ASML supplies to China. This was announced by Minister Klever of Foreign Trade and Development Aid (PVV) on Friday morning. In doing so, the government is following the measures that the US has been unilaterally enforcing since October 2023, but no new restrictions will be imposed on ASML, "in order to disrupt global trade flows and value chains as little as possible," Klever wrote in a statement.

This is now being 'harmonised': the Netherlands is introducing the same restrictions as the Americans, so that The Hague can once again decide on export permits.

The government is not yet putting a stop to maintenance of machines that ASML has already delivered to Chinese customers. There are approximately nine hundred ASML machines in China – most of which cost tens of millions of euros each. Without ASML's own technicians and spare parts, the most advanced systems would come to a standstill within a few weeks. Last week, Bloomberg news agency reported that the Netherlands was considering not renewing expiring maintenance contracts, under pressure from the Americans.

For the time being, the Netherlands will not go along with this. Prime Minister Dick Schoof said last week that he will also take ASML's economic interests into account in his considerations. "ASML is of great importance to the innovative Dutch industry and that may not suffer any damage under any circumstances."

At an investor meeting in New York this week, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said the Americans are trying to impose restrictions primarily for economic reasons. According to Reuters, Fouquet said it is “increasingly difficult to consider export measures as a matter of national security.”
so no stopping of maintenance yet

here is the kicker
According to the Chinese newspaper Global Times, China would consider blocking ASML altogether if the Netherlands were to introduce stricter measures. That threat seems unrealistic, because there is no good Chinese alternative for the machines from Veldhoven in Brabant. But in response to previous export restrictions, China has imposed restrictions on the export of rare metals such as gallium and germanium, which are essential for the production of chips.
here is the thing, you can't get the Euros to see things clearly unless you are willing to play a little hardball with them.
 

Lobachevsky

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sharks are circling around intel and it's busy laying people off. This is just rapidly falling apart. We will see where this leads to.

But from China's point of view, it gives Huawei time to catch up with its own server and PC CPUs.
I think that Huawei could catch'em up in the foreseeable future moving to a RISC-V arch
 

GiantPanda

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sharks are circling around intel and it's busy laying people off. This is just rapidly falling apart. We will see where this leads to.

But from China's point of view, it gives Huawei time to catch up with its own server and PC CPUs.

The biggest impact of this is what happens to US chips fabrication which is supposed to be advanced by the CHIPS Act.

INTC is the best domestic company in place make use of those subsidies and grants. If Intel is casting off plants (or projected plants) then anyone else taking over their manufacturing division will have far less experience and, frankly, ability to do fab. Qualcomm is design and fabless. They won't do much more for the US position by taking over Intel design assets.

Other than Micron and TI, who are far behind Intel, there is really no one to pick up manufacturing if Intel drops it.

Seems the bet now is everything on TSMC in Arizona.
 

Maikeru

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The biggest impact of this is what happens to US chips fabrication which is supposed to be advanced by the CHIPS Act.

INTC is the best domestic company in place make use of those subsidies and grants. If Intel is casting off plants (or projected plants) then anyone else taking over their manufacturing division will have far less experience and, frankly, ability to do fab. Qualcomm is design and fabless. They won't do much more for the US position by taking over Intel design assets.

Other than Micron and TI, who are far behind Intel, there is really no one to pick up manufacturing if Intel drops it.

Seems the bet now is everything on TSMC in Arizona.
I said it before, SMIC & Huawei should put in a bid for Intel's fabs.
 

gelgoog

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Intel is not going to drop manufacturing. They are selling off side businesses like Mobileye and Altera.
I doubt they will need that much cash short term. Their main issue is the CHIPS Act money will only be distributed after they build those factories. So they need loads of capital mid term.

Short term they sold 49% of their Irish fab to Apollo for a cool $11 billion USD just a couple months ago.
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Intel is really good at financial engineering.
 
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